NBA Finals 2013: Preview and Predictions for Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs

After 82 games of playoff posturing and three physically grueling rounds of postseason hoops, the 2013 NBA Finals stage is set.

In one corner stand the mighty Miami Heat, winners of a league-best 66 games in the regular season and thus the team rewarded with home-court advantage. Miami needed seven games to dispose of the pesky Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, but they carried an otherwise largely unblemished playoff record through the first two rounds.

On the opposite end lie the San Antonio Spurs, a battle-tested group that largely skated free of major media attention before dismantling a trio of playoff competitors. San Antonio has been idle since completing its four-game sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies on May 27. This veteran squad has suffered just two playoff losses (both to the Golden State Warriors) in 14 games.

But enough on how these teams got here; it's time to focus on the factors that will determine which club will hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy when the final buzzer has sounded.

Miami's X-Factor: Dwyane Wade

The Eastern Conference Finals yielded two truths that will carry over into the NBA Finals.

First is that, to no one's surprise, MVP LeBron James will have his fingerprints all over this series. He was the lone constant offensive source for the Heat against the Pacers, demoralizing that defense with averages of 29.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists for the seven games.

Secondly, the Heat can ill afford to place too much faith in Chris Bosh right now. The eight-time All-Star looked like anything but against Indiana, finishing with pedestrian averages of 11.0 points and 4.3 rebound while failing to score double-digit points in any of the final four games of the series.

But Wade proved to be the ultimate wild card—brilliant one night, invisible the next.

Scoring has never been lower on Wade's priority list, and given that he's still nursing a bad wheel, that's probably a good thing. He doesn't have to be a 20-point scorer in the finals (although that would certainly help Miami's chances), but he needs to make an impact across the box score.

He's still a next-level defender, and his athleticism has a way of surfacing in spurts.

The Heat don't have a true low-post presence in the starting five, so Miami has to take a team-wide approach to crashing the glass. Wade shouldered that role in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals (game-high nine boards), and his six offensive rebounds brought extra possessions that the Heat badly needed.

He's capable of creating for himself and for his teammates off the dribble, which could be crucial given San Antonio's defensive discipline. The Spurs will look to keep James away from the ball at every opportunity, and Wade's playmaking ability will be an even greater distraction for that defensive attention than Miami's shooters can provide.

San Antonio's X-Factor: Tim Duncan

The ageless wonder, "The Big Fundamental." Call Duncan whatever you want; just be sure to call him four-time champion and 2012-13 All-NBA first-teamer.

He's no longer the focal point of San Antonio's attack. That responsibility rests with Tony Parker, the team's most important player in this series.

But Duncan can hit Miami where it hurts most: on the low block. He has more size than the Heat can handle (6'11", 255 lbs), ballerina footwork and a feathery soft touch at the end of his mechanical shooting stroke.

More than just providing offensive production, though, Duncan will need to seal off the paint on the defensive end. Miami runs a number of penetrators at opposing defenses and will rely on that attacking style heavily if its shooters can't recover from a subpar showing in this postseason.

And his importance as a glass presence cannot be overstated.

Miami plays a suffocating defense, so San Antonio can use all of the second chances Duncan provides. Not to mention he's an elite outlet passer, which negates the Heat's relentless half-court defense.

The Heat Will Win If...

...James and Wade can hold on to their Batman and Robin chemistry.

Wade didn't sound too thrilled with Miami's James-heavy offensive approach against Indiana, but he also often failed to perform at the level needed to necessitate a change.

Erik Spoelstra seemed to call for a heavy dosage of Wade in Monday's Game 7, and the two-time champion responded with his best performance of the series. All the same, 21 points on 7-of-16 shooting and five turnovers in 35 minutes are not going to tip the scales back in his favor.

When James and Wade are collectively clicking, the Heat are almost impossible to stop. 

The slashing lanes open up for whichever player is working off the ball, and few players move better away from it than this duo. The perimeter shooters get that much more breathing room, and Bosh's thinking process is reduced to simply "catch and shoot."

James can't go back to his "Cleveland days" for prolonged stretches, as he'll risk Wade checking himself out of other areas. But Wade has to keep himself engaged when James does embark on his magical moments, because he's witnessed the game-changing effects of those runs.

The Spurs Will Win If...

...They keep the ball moving on offense and anticipate Miami's movement on defense.

No team has grasped the team-first concept better than San Antonio, no doubt a byproduct of employing Gregg Popovich longer than any of his coaching peers in today's four major professional sports.

And don't let that "team" concept fool you—this franchise does not lack star power.

Tony Parker was a legitimate MVP candidate before injuries hampered the tail end of his regular season. Manu Ginobili is one of the best reserve weapons the sport has ever seen. Kawhi Leonard's future is blindingly bright. And Duncan looks strikingly similar to the player responsible for setting the standard at the power forward spot.

But San Antonio has never lost sight of the fact that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

Parker knows he can get to the basket at will, but he also understands how much more dangerous his drives become with the threat of a kick-out pass. Duncan still possesses the most complete set of post skills in the game, but he won't force his own number if he spots an open teammate.

Miami's great at attacking the ball defensively, but it sometimes loses focus when the ball is rapidly changing hands. Parker's penetration and Duncan's work on the low block will help expose the Heat's greatest weaknesses, but the Spurs can't afford to run those wells dry too early in the game.

Prediction

This series doesn't just pit the top two teams against one another, but it also brings the greatest two chameleons to the game's greatest stage.

Both teams can play run-and-gun basketball. Both teams just dismantled the top two defenses in the last round. There isn't a style of play with which either team struggles. What's more, both teams have the heart of a champion—they both displayed that this postseason.

So what will ultimately decide the outcome of this series?

Miami's championship drive.

While the Spurs are simply trying to put the finishing touches on their lasting legacy, the Heat are just starting to build their own. They don't want to waste that 27-game winning streak. Their biggest stars sacrificed statistics and economics to come together, and not just to win a single title.

Heat in Six Games

The 2013 Finals MVP: LeBron James

Easy prediction to make here.

The best player on the planet will add further credibility to that claim when he takes home his second straight finals MVP after securing his fourth regular-season MVP award in the last five years.

It won't come easily, though.

Leonard's blend of athletic gifts and defensive instincts is similar to that of Indiana's Paul George, so for the second straight series, LeBron will battle someone who can occasionally mitigate his offensive impact. And Duncan and Tiago Splitter will be waiting at the rim when James does find paths to the basket.

But there are just too many ways for James to beat the Spurs. He's just as dangerous as a distributor as he is a scorer. He's the best individual defender in the league and a vertical weapon on the offensive glass and working away from the ball.

And Don't Forget to Watch...

...The midseries adjustments from both coaches.

Popovich is a mastermind, surely the greatest sideline presence since Phil Jackson and a member of a very short list of names atop the league's all-time greats. He might see something in the film room, expose it as much as possible in one game and then scrap it before the next contest to stay one step ahead.

But don't undersell Spoelstra's coaching ability, either. Yes, he's won with great players, but so too did Jackson, Popovich, Red Auerbach, etc.

When something's not working, Spoelstra lets it go and finds something else to take its place. That meant putting James on the ball after a failed trip the 2011 NBA Finals, swarming Roy Hibbert in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals this year and even plucking Shane Battier completely from the rotation with the season on the line.

Don't get me wrong; the sideline rests in San Antonio's favor in this series. But the gap between the two teams isn't as big as most people think.

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