Will Birdman's Game 6 Suspension Hurt Miami Heat's Closeout Odds?

The Miami Heat are going to have their wings clipped for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but Chris Andersen's one-game suspension probably won't prevent the defending champs from closing out the Indiana Pacers.

According to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports, the NBA has taken some retroactive measures to punish Birdman for flying off the handle in Game 5:

We're not here to discuss whether Andersen's suspension was warranted, but after the uproar over the fact that Nazr Mohammed was ejected for similar (but not nearly as egregious) conduct in the second round, the league really had no other choice.

I mean, Andersen basically attacked Tyler Hansbrough, twice.

Even though the suspension seems equitable on its face, for some, it's proof that we're now living in a society that doesn't always make sense. There was once a time when irritants like Psycho T could be punished for their annoying ways. That time is over now.

Concerns about the degeneration of society's vigilante codes aside, Andersen's absence is definitely not a good thing for the Heat.

For starters, it seems unlikely that any of the players who'll be absorbing his minutes will shoot 100 percent from the field. Birdman has hit all 15 of his shots in the conference finals, yielding a shot chart that features only one color.

In case anything's unclear, green is good.

Andersen's ability to dive-cut to the rim when Roy Hibbert steps up to challenge penetration has resulted in some of Miami's easiest scoring chances. LeBron James has fed Birdman with plenty of deft passes whenever Hibbert has raised his tree-limb arms in help situations.

Now, James will either have to try to finish drives over Hibbert (not a winning proposition, as Carmelo Anthony found out earlier in these playoffs) or look elsewhere for passing targets.

According to 82games.com, the Heat were simply a better overall team during the regular season when Andersen was on the floor. Miami's offensive rating was 114.3 when Birdman sat, which was actually better than the 111.8 figure it posted when he played. But that discrepancy really has a lot to do with the high-scoring, small-ball lineups Miami used when its bigs were on the bench. The 111.8 number would still have been good enough to lead the NBA.

The Heat's defensive rating improved by 3.4 points per 100 possessions whenever Andersen was on the court. So on the whole, he made a positive impact in the minutes he played.

On an individual basis, Andersen played opposing centers fairly well, holding them to an average PER of 15.0. He was murder on power forwards, though, limiting them to a PER of just 9.1 during the regular season. Seeing as how the Pacers have a pair of excellent frontcourt players, his absence on D can only hurt.

In the playoffs, the story has largely been the same. Andersen's presence on the court has coincided with an offensive rating of 116.6, which is more than 10 points better than the one the Heat have posted when he's on the bench. On D, Miami has been just about one point per 100 possessions stingier when Andersen has rested. But that's a pretty small figure when compared to how much he has improved the Heat's offense in these playoffs.

Against the Pacers, Andersen has struggled against the much bigger Hibbert down low. To be fair, so has everyone else. Birdman's attempts to block shots have often taken him out of rebounding position, which has contributed to Indiana's total dominance on the offensive glass.

In fact, the Heat have actually cleared the defensive boards more effectively when the hyperactive Birdman has been on the bench. Miami has grabbed 70.7 percent of all available defensive rebounds in the postseason when Andersen has been sitting. When he's been on the floor, that figure drops to 68.3 percent.

So, even though Andersen isn't a great option to cover Hibbert and patrol the paint, his ability to finish plays on offense still makes him Miami's best backup big.

There's no question that Birdman's energy will be missed, and we've also proved that his statistical contributions will be hard to replace. But it's not like the Heat are new to this particular situation. Last year, they went into a Game 6 battle against the Pacers with a bench shortened by a couple of suspensions and came out just fine.

The bottom line here is that Andersen's absence hurts the Heat because it forces the inconsistent Udonis Haslem into a bigger role, requires Chris Bosh to play carefully in an effort to avoid foul trouble and might even necessitate exhuming the corpse of Joel Anthony for a few minutes.

The alternative is to field a smaller lineup, but that's a dangerous idea against the bruising Pacers.

We have to be careful about overstating Andersen's value, though. Truthfully, his suspension won't matter at all if Dwyane Wade and Bosh manage to show up. This team's success has long been determined by the performance of its marquee trio.

Lately, the Big Three has looked a lot more like the Big One, but if Wade and Bosh give James a couple of decent supporting performances for the first time in this series, Miami should be able to take care of business.

And even if James doesn't get any help, we learned in the third quarter of Game 5 (when James personally outscored the Pacers, 16-13) that LBJ is more than willing to shift into Beast Mode when necessary.

Andersen's suspension is significant, but the Heat should be much more concerned about playing the kind of defense they did in the second half of Game 5 and getting good performances from Wade and Bosh. In the grand scheme of things, Birdman's benching isn't the biggest issue facing Miami.

The Heat can close out this series if they play up to their capabilities—Birdman, or no Birdman.

So, the only real question is what Andersen will be doing while his team fights to eliminate the Pacers.

Of course.

Note: All stats via 82games.com and NBA.com unless otherwise indicated.

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