NBA Playoff Schedule 2013: Complete Viewing Guide for Pacers vs. Heat Game 5

If you're still looking for the Miami Heat to suddenly flip the "on" switch, pulverize the Indiana Pacers and continue on their path to world domination, well, I don't know what series you've been watching.

Outside of an outlier Game 3 where Miami morphed into the Justice League, this series has been undoubtedly the most captivating of this entire postseason. Three of the four contests have come down to the final minute, each having finishes that could have filled social media with bile-filled schadenfreude for an entire week. 

Game 1, it was Frank Vogel benching Roy Hibbert for Miami's final possession. Game 2, it was LeBron James coughing up the ball twice in the final minute—bringing forth all the inane "clutch" questions again. And on Tuesday night, it was James fouling out on a ticky-tack call, Dwyane Wade falsely being called for a travel and Joey Crawford watching Joey Crawford on a monitor in the aftermath.

Tuesday night's action was undoubtedly the worst-officiated game of this postseason. There was an egregious shot-clock violation that cost the Pacers a bucket, those two aforementioned calls against Miami and the almost-never-seen assessment of a timeout to Heat coach Erik Spoelstra for being out of the coach's box.

And even all of that could not completely mar another captivating 48 minutes from these teams. Indiana charged from behind in the second half thanks to an ascendant performance from Lance Stephenson and another excellent night from Roy Hibbert, defeating Miami 99-92 to knot the best-of-seven series up at 2-2.

Heading into Thursday night's Game 5, Miami has to remain the favorite. But it's by nowhere near as much as it was even three days ago, and the Pacers have made it readily apparent they're ready and able to push the defending champs to the brink. Let's just hope we can avoid refpocalypse 2.0 along the way. 

With that in mind, here is a complete breakdown of everything you need to know about Thursday night's Game 5 action. 

Game Information

When: Thursday, May 30 at 8:30 p.m. ET

Where: AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami, Fla.

Watch: TNT

What to Watch For

Miami: Can Shooters Knock Down Open Looks?

As a rule, the Pacers avoid over-helping on defense as much as possible. Coach Frank Vogel made that a tenet of the team's defensive system, especially in pick-and-roll situations where Indiana tries to cover as much ground with the initial two defenders to avoid drawing the other three out of position.

There's obviously more to the scheme than "just don't help," and Grantland's Zach Lowe did a wonderful breaking down of the complexities in January. And yet the internal confidence instilled—rightfully for the most part—by Vogel's trust in his defenders has played a major key in this series.

It just hasn't been the way you may think.

Much has been made about the impact of Roy Hibbert and his intimidation factor in the middle, and most of it has been fair. But the Heat have still managed to score 110.9 points per 100 possessions during this series, a figure that bests their league-leading regular-season numbers, per NBA.com. Indiana gave up 97.2 points per 100 possessions during the regular season, second-best in the league, and about matched that number against the Hawks and Knicks.

That ain't half-bad, folks. The Heat have scored at a high rate because they've successfully played schematic chess with Vogel's defensive scheme.  They've forced adjustments big and small to Indiana's vaunted scheme and forced (arguably) the league's best defense to play like one of the worst. 

How? Because LeBron.

The world's greatest player, late-game turnovers in Game 2 aside, has been just that in this series. He's scored, assisted, grabbed rebounds, Voltron'd his way to the hoop for a game-winning bucket and done about anything an NBA player can to single-handedly crush the will of an opposing team. Hell, he even fouled out of a game. 

In Game 1, the indefatigable Chris "Birdman" Andersen became even more beloved in Miami for his critical 16-point, five-rebound performance. Most of Birdman's buckets came as a cutter, dashing to the hoop to catch a LeBron pass after he sucked Hibbert or Ian Mahinmi out of position.

In Game 2, Vogel adjusted by sending hard hedges at LeBron—mostly via David West—and completely impeding his progress on pick-and-roll plays. Indiana crashed hard almost a la Miami, which is normally a big no-no in Vogel's system. The adjustment worked, as James had a paltry three assists and the Heat scored just one bucket from a cutting player, per Synergy Sports. 

We all know how James and the Heat adjusted 48 hours later. Parking LeBron in the paint, the Heat pulverized poor Paul George with such unrelenting ferocity you couldn't have blamed him had he vanished from Indianapolis, leaving behind just his NBA Superstar Gold Card, and took to a life living off the land in northern New Mexico. Over and over, James backed George into the paint, spun over his right shoulder and put through a nifty hook shot. And over and over the Pacers refused to send help George's way.

Vogel learned his lesson on Tuesday night. From the very first time James received an entry pass to abuse George in the post in Game 4, he was staring at a second defender. In the first play below, West completely abandons Chris Bosh, who even runs some false action to the weak side to draw the Pacers forward away from the ball. West didn't bite.

On this set, LeBron is matched up with Lance Stephenson—an assignment the crazy-person Stephenson requested. It's understandable both that Miami would look to exploit this matchup and that the Pacers would send help Stephenson's way. But in the process of helping out a teammate, Sam Young does the unthinkable—he leaves Ray Allen cross-cut to the corner alone

Both results were unmitigated successes for Indiana, as was much of James' time spent in the post on Tuesday. LeBron went 1-of-6 from the post in Game 4, two days after his dominance down low received so much praise that it became clear the world's best player was also its most beloved.

The most interesting takeaway isn't that LeBron missed difficult shots or that Indiana doubled him. It's that the Pacers are 100 percent comfortable dipping on the Heat's shooters—and for good reason. Miami shot a dreadful 3-of-22 in spot-up situations, per Synergy Sports, and made only 4-of-16 three-pointers not shot by LeBron. 

Folks can (rightfully) bemoan the derision of Dwyane Wade's game and wonder (rightfully) if Chris Bosh can find consistency all they want. But it's Ray Allen and Shane Battier, the team's two indispensable old fogies, who have to make their shots.   

Vogel has adjusted to emphases of Spoelstra and vice versa through this series, with the two trading off victories and making adjustments to adjustments on a tantalizing 48-hour turnaround. 

For Spoelstra, the offensive adjustment might just be handing basketballs to Allen and Battier and asking them how many feet are in a mile.

Indiana: Can Indiana's Bigs Keep Pulverizing the Heat Defense?

Astute fans should have noticed something amiss when talking about the overall statistical successes of the Heat offense.

If you didn't, here is how things should have gone: "Hmph, Miami is scoring at quite a high level against the Pacers; I didn't expect that....wait a minute. If the Heat have scored at such a high rate and the Pacers have played them close in all but one game...naw, it couldn't be. They couldn't be..." *Looks pulls up NBA.com's stat module* *Cranes neck at Heat*.

If you didn't pick up on what my stupid joke was putting down, Indiana's offense has been superb this postseason. The same Pacers squad that has scored fewer than 85 points three times before this series and finished as a bottom-half offense during the regular season has torched the Heat through the first four games. Indiana's scoring rate of 111.3 points per 100 possessions would have led the league in the regular season and is besting Miami's impressive rate.

This, of course, is where the small sample size comes into play. The Pacers are scoring at a rate infinitely superior to the one they put up in the regular season against a defense that was the best among all playoff squads heading into the series.

Either we're looking at one of the bigger statistical outliers in NBA playoff history or there's a trend here. Anyone who's watched even a quarter of any of these four games knows the answer to that third-grade riddle.

Prior to the series, it took one glance at a media guide to figure out the Pacers' biggest advantage. Hibbert and West are bigger and stronger than Miami's preferred small-ball front line, and Indiana's best chance at winning was riding those two as far as they would take them—even when it became clear George was using this series as his coming-out party.

Thus far, the effects have been devastating. The Pacers' size has turned Miami into an abomination on the boards. Indiana's big men have recouped nearly 40 percent of their team's misses during this series, a mark that would break the sound and speed record for rebounding efficiency.

Those second chances have made up for Indiana's dreadful 17.2 percent turnover rate this series, all while allowing Hibbert and West to finish easy buckets. Synergy Sports' measurements note that over 11 percent of the Pacers' offense in this series has come via put-backs—an astounding rate. 

While West's versatility has been vital to keeping the paint unclogged and his strength has worked as a LeBron deterrent in pick-and-roll situations, Hibbert has been Indiana's offensive star. Dropping in a fusillade of hook shots with both hands, Hibbert has scored 22.8 points and grabbed 12 rebounds—over half of which are offensive. 

And Hibbert has been remarkably consistent. The seven-footer's worst stat line of the series was a 19 and nine in Game 1, before Hibbert realized Miami simply had no answer for his presence. Even if the Heat resort to fouling, which they did plenty in Games 2 and 3, Hibbert is an excellent free-throw shooter, knocking down over 80 percent for the postseason. 

It's been apparent the entire series Miami has to mitigate Hibbert's effect. The question is whether Spoelstra has any answer as to how. The Heat have mostly resorted to fronting Hibbert with their small front line, but Indiana has adjusted to that. What Vogel had Hibbert do, especially in Game 4, was run an initial pick-and-roll to get his defender moving behind him and then dart to the weak-side low block for an entry pass.

The Pacers even ran a few pick-and-rolls with Hibbert to keep Miami honest, like this one that leads to a wide-open West jumper.

Look, no one is suggesting that Miami can or will find the perfect mix to stop Hibbert. The Birdman-Bosh combo meal is too weak, and Heat fans are already dreading the next dusting off of Joel Anthony. But something has to be done to at least mitigate his effect.

Whether that's relaxing the heavy-trapping principles a bit and replacing them with more post double-teams, so be it. Indiana hitting 37 percent of its three-pointers is the one thing you can bet the bank on regressing to the mean the remainder of this series. The Heat have to adjust defensively and do so quickly, otherwise they'll be looking at a 3-2 hole heading back to Indiana. 

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