Why This Dwightmare Will Be Different
It's easy to get caught up in the day-to-day drama of Dwight Howard's free agency and feel like you've seen this movie before.
There's still a number of heavyweight franchises (and the Atlanta Hawks) clamoring to lure the explosive center to town. There are compelling reasons for him to stay put (more money, longer contract, major market) and just as many arguments for him to bolt (supporting cast might not be as good as we thought, locker room turmoil, acres of apparently greener grass canvassing the basketball landscape).
And there's the impossible-to-shake feeling that even after another year of diminishing statistical returns, Howard might be worth the media frenzy and self-induced headaches based on his unique blend of size (6'11", 240 pounds) and athleticism.
But there's something dramatically different with Dwightmare 2.0—3.0 if you separate his lengthy divorce from the Orlando Magic into two parts sandwiched around his agreement to waive his right to exercise an early termination option in March 2012.
A few somethings, actually.
Howard may well return to the Los Angeles Lakers despite a disastrous debut campaign.
The superstar perks in L.A. (celebrity status, limitless entertainment opportunities) trump the perks of any of the other markets said to be in the running, maybe even combined. Coupled with that additional year of security and the extra $30 million that the Lakers can offer, there might be more than enough to convince Howard to sign up for more service under the prying eyes of the L.A. media.
But even if Superman opts to stay in La La Land, don't expect the same jubilant outpouring to surround his return.
Even the biggest Howard/Lakers homers understand that there's more work to be done to restore the franchise to championship contention.
Kobe Bryant's torn Achilles will keep the 2013 All-NBA first-team selection sidelined indefinitely. Despite sharing the floor for more than 2,100 minutes last season, via Basketball-Reference.com, the pair never appeared to find great on-court chemistry. Their off-court relationship was reported to be strained at best, via Mark Heisler of Lakers Nation.
Throw in a luxury tax bill that could top $76 million, per CBS Sports' Ken Berger, the unsettled clash of personnel and philosophy and an unflattering 82-game sample size to mull over, and it'll be tempered expectations at best for next season.
If Howard charges toward the emerald pastures over the summer, even that should come with a more refined public relations twist.
He's ditched the vocal approach that shrouded his drawn-out departure from Orlando, which is certainly a welcome change since he appears to have no better idea of where to take his talents this time around. His flip-flopping stance on the Magic, and former coach Stan Van Gundy, had him tasting flip flops more often than not.
This should have been the summer when he made his intentions known. He's not bound by any one franchise and has the freedom to join forces with the organization of his choosing.
But he's speaking in only hushed tones. The few reports that leak about his apparent desires are often challenged in their validity in subsequent articles.
Maybe he's matured in this regard. Perhaps he's just surrounded with a more business-savvy team that's reminding him of the image hits he brought on himself over the last two years.
Howard's silence might be frustrating now, but his constant camera time was downright nauseating last time around.
What could really make this version of the Dwightmare so utterly different, though, is the fact that the shiny prize so many front offices are chasing may have permanently lost some of its luster.
When these discussions first started some two years ago, Howard was unquestionably the most dominant big in the business. He was only two seasons removed from guiding an undermanned Magic team to the 2009 NBA Finals and fresh off his third straight Defensive Player of the Year award.
Now he's fighting a number of unsightly labels (immature, damaged goods) with his own numbers either no longer doing the talking, or just saying all of the wrong things.
In two seasons, his scoring average plummeted from 22.9 per game to 17.1. He lost more than 10 percent off of his already unimpressive free-throw percentage (59.6 to 49.2). His rebounding took a 12 percent dip (14.1 to 12.4) and his player efficiency rating lost 25 percent (26.1 to 19.4).
His April 2012 back surgery surely factored into the decline, but that's part of the issue.
Where are the guarantees that the effects of the procedure are going away? Who's to say he's not the latest big man to see his production sapped by injury?
More importantly, is that an eight- (or nine-) figure gamble that front offices can comfortably make?
Make no mistake, though, his injury and character concerns won't prevent him from finding max-contract money.
The potential return to his former dominance is impossible to resist, particularly given the state of his suitors.
The Lakers may feel that they have too much invested in Howard to back away now. The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors are just scratching the surface of their potential but could fast-forward their rise through the NBA ranks. The Dallas Mavericks dismantled a championship core just to save their seat at the negotiating table.
The frenzy is familiar, but the implications are entirely foreign for Howard and his potential employers.
