Projecting How LeBron James Will Perform in Game 4 of Eastern Conference Finals

LeBron James, to the no one’s surprise, has been the Miami Heat’s key player in the Eastern Conference Finals showdown with the Indiana Pacers.

Whether he’s scoring points and attacking the hoop relentlessly to save the team from a critical home loss—as he did in Game 1—or being used as an efficient decoy in the low-post and setting up opportunities for his teammates—which was what happened in Game 3—the reigning MVP’s influence on this series cannot be overstated.

Even in Game 2’s defeat, James’ 36 points were the main reason that the Heat could even keep the score close, although his five turnovers were extremely costly and may have been the difference.

With what he’s learned over the first three contests in this bloodbath of a series, you can expect James to avoid becoming the sole scorer or facilitator for his squad in Game 4.

If the Heat are going to take this series back to South Beach with a chance to close it out in Game 5, LBJ is going to have to be a combination of those two things and more.

After embarrassing the Pacers in front of their hometown fans in Game 3, the opponent has entered desperation mode. Indiana’s players know that if they are to go down 3-1, they have about a four percent chance of winning the series.

Indiana is going to put the clamps down on defense, as the team strayed from its identity on Sunday night and allowed the Heat to simply score far too many points.

The Pacers will do everything in their power to limit the effectiveness of James, as the Heat’s success starts and ends with the 11-year veteran.

While there won’t be too many double-teams sent James’ way early in the shot clock or outside the low-post—coach Frank Vogel is too smart to send multiple defenders at the MVP with so many three-point weapons waiting for an easy pass from a great facilitator—expect Indiana to use Paul George to hinder the superstar and Roy Hibbert to rotate over anytime James looks at the paint.

The rest of the Pacers defenders will be using their length and wingspan to try to disrupt the passing lanes when LeBron decides to defer. As TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott noted, LBJ prefers to avoid driving at Hibbert and often tosses up an ineffective floater when forced to.

This strategy will certainly be effective, especially with motivated wing defenders hounding James and big men boxing out the less-heralded Heat players that did so much damage in Game 3.

It’s going to be tough for King James to skip a pass out of the low post, which will inevitably lead to a handful of turnovers. He managed to avoid them on Sunday evening, but—as mentioned—the Pacers abandoned their cutthroat defensive mindset in that showdown.

Hibbert’s presence will also lead to some bad shots, especially if the big man can stay out of foul trouble and Vogel elects to keep him on the court for long stretches. The more James has to go to his underutilized floater, the better the chance the Pacers will force misses and win the game.

Indiana’s back is against the wall and this is a must-win scenario, so I suspect they’ll find a way to pull out this victory on the back of a strong defensive effort. James won’t be a slouch by any means, but he’ll have a disappointing performance by his lofty standards.

I’m predicting LBJ to finish with 26 points on 9-of-20 shooting (3-of-7 three-pointers, 5-of-5 free throws), eight rebounds, three assists, one steal, one block and four turnovers in a 94-93 Pacers win.