NBA Draft 2013: Identifying Stars with Most Bust Potential

Every draft features a handful of players with star potential and very little risk of busting at the NBA level.

Well, almost every draft.

The 2013 class isn’t quite on par with some of the more recent crops of NBA prospects. Without a true elite player in this year’s draft, it’s extremely hard to predict how the picks may play out on June 27.

There will invariably be a few players who surprise everyone and go on to have a big impact at the professional level, but team and schematic fit (as well as coaching) play a big part in how those players develop.

For some of the college stars who will find a home early in the lottery, time will be a factor in their development. The window for top picks to perform is very small—and the pressure extremely high.

The following three players could fall under that category in their formative NBA seasons.

Cody Zeller, PF/C, Indiana

No top college prospect wants to stay at school and forgo millions of dollars in potential NBA earnings, but that’s exactly what Indiana’s Cody Zeller should have done.

The tweener big man will have a hard time finding an immediate fit at the next level, and that positional uncertainty doesn’t bode well for his prospects with a team likely to select him in the lottery.

Zeller had a terrific 2012-13 season with the Hoosiers, but he isn’t big or strong enough to play a similar position in the NBA. He may bulk up and develop into a center, but he’s nowhere near that level right now.

But if he can’t log a lot of minutes at the 5 in the NBA, where does he fit?

Zeller doesn’t have a refined jump shot or the quickness and athleticism to defend some of the league’s top power forwards. He may be able to outmuscle some of those players at the offensive end, but he’s going to struggle playing in any system that necessitates more of a stretch role from its power forwards at the offensive end.

The potential is certainly there, but teams with early lottery selections can’t afford to gamble on upside and a player unable to be a strong contributor early in his career. If Zeller is selected in the top 10 picks of the draft, expect him to be slapped with the “bust” tag by year three.

Shabazz Muhammad, SF, UCLA

Star UCLA forward Shabazz Muhammad didn’t quite live up to expectations in his freshman campaign, but the potential that made him one of the top recruits in his class will also make him a lottery pick in the 2013 draft.

The problem with potential is that it isn’t always an indicator of talent.

Muhammad has talent, but he lacks a lot of the more refined skills necessary to succeed at the NBA level, especially from a scoring forward in an NBA shooting guard’s body.

The UCLA product struggles to create his own shots and separate from defenders along the perimeter. That particular shortcoming will only be magnified playing against the more highly skilled defenders the NBA has to offer. Without the ability to put the ball on the floor and create his own scoring opportunities, Muhammad will settle in with a big group of one-dimensional NBA scorers.

Despite his length and rebounding ability, Muhammad also struggles far too much at the defensive end. Awareness is something he can improve with experience, but his other more glaring shortcomings may not be so easy to fix.

As is the case with Zeller, Muhammad has the potential to be a solid NBA player. It just may take too much time for him to realize that potential.

Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky

Nerlens Noel has a higher ceiling than any player in this draft. Unfortunately, he’s also coming off a devastating knee injury that has the potential to derail his NBA career.

Noel’s superior athleticism made him a dominant defensive presence in his time on the floor with the Wildcats last season. It remains to be seen how quickly he can return to form after tearing his ACL, though.

In addition, the seven-footer will need some time to grow into his thin frame. Noel’s length is a big advantage in blocking shots, but he’ll struggle in defending some of the NBA’s stronger centers.

Were Noel to be drafted with the fourth or fifth pick, the “bust” label probably wouldn’t apply. But a lot of extra pressure is placed on No. 1 picks, and Noel just may not be ready to shoulder that burden.

Despite all those red flags, the Cleveland Cavaliers don't have many other options. Noel's athleticism and upside will likely force the Cavs to take him in hopes that Noel will avoid the pitfalls of being such a highly rated prospect.