NBA Playoffs 2013: Events That Would Drastically Change Face of the Postseason

It seems certain the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder are headed for a rematch in the NBA Finals. In that rematch, I predict the Heat would again prevail over the Thunder in an entertaining series.

Teams with the best balance of stars and role players win in the postseason. The Heat have the game’s brightest star in LeBron James and their second and third fiddle would be the best players on most teams in the NBA.

Their complement of veteran role players have melded well with South Beach’s three-headed monster, and there is no team—currently constructed—in the league that can beat them four out of seven times.

That said, things happen. 

Ask the Chicago Bulls  who lost Derrick Rose to a torn ACL in the first round of the playoffs last season. Ask the Los Angeles Lakers who are fighting to make the playoffs this year, but would have to take on the Thunder minus Kobe Bryant because of a torn Achilles tendon.

Just as these events changed the Bulls’ outlook in 2012 playoffs and the Lakers’ ceiling for this postseason, there are events that could alter the predictions I so confidently shared in the paragraphs above.

Here are the three events that could drastically alter the results of the 2013 NBA Playoffs.

An Injury to One of Miami’s Big Three

Obviously, I’m not wishing pain or misfortune on anyone. Injuries are an unfortunate part of professional sports that often change a team’s fortune.

The Heat are no different than any other great team in that respect.

If either James, Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh were lost for an extended period during the playoffs, the Heat juggernaut wouldn’t be as unbeatable.

I admit Bosh is the most expendable, but that doesn't mean he isn't important. In fact, head coach Erik Spoelstra said Bosh was the team's most important player. I don't know about that, but I understand the gist of what he's getting at.

Bosh doesn't get the credit he deserves and Spoelstra was simply supporting his guy.

Bosh's interior defense, post presence and mid-range shooting is an important aspect of the Heat’s success. He’s averaging 16.6 points per game and is shooting 53 percent from the field. 

I won’t say the Heat couldn’t win the NBA title without Bosh, but even a team led by James and Wade would miss that type of production. 

The Heat would not repeat without Wade, though. LeBron is great, and he may very well get the team out of the Eastern conference playoffs, but they would not beat the Thunder without Flash.

Miami needs his defense and ability to get to the free throw line to be elite. 

It goes without saying that losing LeBron would be catastrophic to the Heat. Without the man destined to win his second consecutive MVP award (fourth overall), the Heat would struggle to get out of the second round. 

An Injury to Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant

As important as each member of Miami’s Big Three are, the Thunder’s dynamic duo are just as vital to their success. 

If one of them were to go down, they would not just stop being my favorite to emerge out of the Western conference.

If an injury took place in the first round against the Lakers, they could be upset very early.

The Thunder’s role players aren’t as experienced and solid as the Heat’s reserves and complementary pieces.

If OKC had to play without Westbrook, defenses would collapse on Durant and I don’t believe Kevin Martin and others could step up. It should be noted that Westbrook has never missed a game in his career, so fat chance of that happening.

Without Durant, the Thunder’s plight would be even worse. 

Westbrook would chuck up shots at an even higher rate than he does already. The team would be easier to defend on a whole. 

Per 82games.com, head coach Scott Brooks has only played two five-man units that include Westbrook without Durant.

Those units outscored their opponents 18 of 28 times. That’s not too bad, but you must remember those situations encompass games against bad teams as well.

In the playoffs, there are no more bad teams.

Everything slows down and teams must execute in the half court. Imagine the Thunder trying to be as effective as they currently are without Durantula. 

Derrick Rose’s Return

This is perhaps the biggest wild card for the NBA postseason.

It is also the most pleasant to speculate on. Instead of playing “what if” about a star getting injured, this scenario allows me to predict how things would change if a star returned to action from an injury.

As most know, Rose has not played a second this season, but per K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune, he has not ruled out the possibility of returning for the playoffs.

I’m not convinced the Bulls could defeat the Miami Heat even if Rose returned, but I know it would make a potential meeting a lot more interesting.

Without Rose, the Bulls are still a formidable team because of their defense, versatility and rebounding.

With Rose—assuming he’s close to his pre-injury level of play—the team would have an unquestioned go-to man down the stretch.

This type of player is so vital in the postseason when each possession is so important.

Rose would make the Bulls my pick to face the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. I’d still take the Heat in that series, but it wouldn’t shock me to see it extended seven games.

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