Odds for NBA Playoff Bubble Teams to Make Postseason

With the end of the regular season a month away, the race for the postseason is getting more intense on a daily basis for NBA bubble teams. 

In the Eastern Conference, the eight playoff teams are pretty much set in stone. The Milwaukee Bucks, who are the eighth seed, hold an eight-game lead over the Toronto Raptors with 17 games to play. 

The remainder of the regular season for the Eastern Conference playoff teams will be about jockeying for position, as avoiding the Miami Heat in the opening rounds of the postseason will be on every team's agenda. 

The race in the Western Conference promises to be far more exciting, as six teams remain in a heated race for the last three playoff spots.

In that group of teams is the Los Angeles Lakers, who have drawn more attention than any other team, despite being below .500 for the majority of the season. While the mainstream media may focus on the Lakers, they are not a lock to qualify for the postseason.

The best part of the NBA regular season is about to begin, as teams across the league start rounding into playoff shape. 

Statistics and records accurate as of March 17th, 2013 

Golden State Warriors

With a record of 38-30, the Golden State Warriors are still a safe bet to make the playoffs.

That being said, the Warriors are just 8-13 in their last 21 contests and have limped through the month of March. 

Fortunately for Mark Jackson's team, nine of their last 14 games will take place inside the friendly confines of Oracle Arena. Considering that Golden State is 22-10 at home, it's hard to envision them falling out of the playoff picture when 64 percent of their remaining games will be played at home. 

With All-Star David Lee and All-Star snub Stephen Curry in the starting lineup, the Warriors should have enough of a scoring punch to win home games over the likes of the Washington Wizards, Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves—all of whom are scheduled to visit Oakland before the season ends. 

Currently, Golden State is in sixth place in the Western Conference, although they are only ahead of the Houston Rockets by a half-game. 

Even if the Warriors do qualify for the postseason, they fit the stereotype as a team likely to get knocked out in a lopsided first-round series. 

During the playoffs—when defense is at a premium—the Warriors will struggle to win games. So far this season, Golden State is ranked 24th in scoring defense, which does not foreshadow a successful postseason run. 

Playoff Odds: 76.9% (according to John Hollinger's Rankings via ESPN.com)

Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets hit the jackpot when Daryl Morey acquired James Harden prior to the start of the regular season.

Behind Harden's dominant offensive season, the Rockets are nearly a lock to qualify for the postseason after missing out on the tournament for three straight years. 

The Rockets lead the league in scoring offense, as they are averaging 106.9 points per game. Although Harden leads the attack, Houston has four other players on the roster averaging double-digits in points. 

Houston's high-octane offense has made up for their putrid defense thus far, but that precedent will be hard to maintain in the postseason. 

Due to their desire to constantly push the ball, the Rockets turn the ball over more than any other team. In fact, Houston leads the league in turnovers, as they cough the ball up an average of 16.4 times per contest.

According to ESPN.com, the Rockets have the eighth-best scoring differential, which is an excellent way to determine the league's best teams. By comparison, the Rockets differential is plus-3.7, while the Golden State Warriors are sporting a negative-.3. 

Based upon current trajectories, the Rockets should jump the Warriors in the Western Conference standings prior to the beginning of the postseason. 

Playoff Odds: 97%

Los Angeles Lakers

I don't know about you, but I've heard enough about the 2012-13 Los Angeles Lakers for a lifetime.

Despite struggling against mediocre teams, the Lakers have been the most popular storyline throughout the season. With Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol and Steve Nash on the roster, it seemed as if LA's most popular team would dominate on a nightly basis. 

The Lakers went from being the prohibitive favorite to win the Western Conference during the preseason to fighting for a playoff berth in March. Because of this, the media has had a field day covering the Lakers, as each defeat represented an opportunity to bury them. 

While injuries have played a contributing role in LA's disappointing season, it's impossible to ignore the fact that Mike D'Antoni's offense doesn't fit the current roster. 

The Lakers have won 11 of their past 14 contests, as the team is finally coming together. During their recent streak of success, D'Antoni's team has looked more fluid on defense, with Dwight Howard starting to regain his defensive form from past years.

Whether or not the Lakers present a challenge in the postseason remains a mystery, although it's hard to imagine them giving a team with an explosive point guard a tough series in the first round. 

In their final game of the regular season, the Lakers are set to host the Houston Rockets, in what has the potential to be a very important game. When April 17th rolls around, either the Lakers or Rockets could be fighting for a playoff position, which will make the basketball game must watch television. 

Playoff Odds: 69.8%

Utah Jazz

The Utah Jazz managed to stay within the Western Conference's top eight seeds for the majority of the season, but have been surpassed by the Los Angeles Lakers.

Ty Corbin's team is currently in ninth place in the Western Conference and has a difficult schedule ahead of them.  

Over their last 11 contests, the Jazz compiled a 3-8 record, which precipitated their slip from the conference's playoff teams. While Utah has one of the league's deepest frontcourts, their below-average backcourt has held them back.

Another aspect that has held the Jazz back is their poor road record, as they are just 10-24 away from home. Seven of Utah's 16 remaining games are on the road, which means the majority of their remaining contests will be played on their home court. 

Even if the Jazz qualify for the postseason, they will be heavy underdogs in their first-round matchup. 

Utah's front office will come to regret not unloading Paul Milsap or Al Jefferson before the trading deadline, as both big men are set to be unrestricted free agents after the postseason. 

If GM Dennis Lindsey had unloaded one of his two starting big men, he could have landed a capable guard or wing player, which could have catapulted his team into the postseason.

Instead, his team has an uphill battle for a playoff berth and is in danger of losing one or both of their premier players for nothing in the offseason. 

Playoff Odds: 41.4%

Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks' attempt to quickly reload with veterans in order to be competitive this season has not been successful, as they are four games out of the playoffs.

Since becoming a member of the Mavs in 1998, Dirk Nowitzki has never missed the postseason.

Based upon the current situation, Nowitzki will have to put the team on his back in order to keep that streak intact. Considering that the league's most successful international player is having his least-productive year since his rookie season in terms of scoring, it's hard to have any confidence in the Mavs making a serious push for the postseason. 

While Dallas is still in the playoff picture, they are four games below .500 and haven't seriously threatened any of the Western Conference's playoff teams on a consistent basis.

So far this season, the Mavericks have won just six of their 24 games against Western Conference teams that are currently in a position to qualify for the postseason.  

The Mavs are seventh in scoring offense and are ranked 27th in scoring defense, allowing an average of 101.9 points per contest. In the postseason—when points become harder to come by—the Mavericks will have an even harder time competing against the conference's elite teams. 

Dallas will need to get every break imaginable to make noise in the west, as they are a long shot to qualify for the playoffs. 

Playoff Odds: 10.5%

Portland Trail Blazers

Behind the strong play of Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge, the Portland Trail Blazers are still in the midst of the Western Conference playoff race, despite employing one of the league's worst benches. 

With a 31-34 record, the Blazers will need to finish the season on a high note in order to challenge the Los Angeles Lakers for the eighth and final playoff spot. 

From this point on, nine of Portland's remaining 17 games will be on the road. Considering that the Blazers are a horrid 9-23 away from home thus far, it's difficult to predict a playoff appearance for Terry Stotts' team. 

Even worse than all of those road games is the Blazers' strength of schedule. Thirteen of Portland's 17 remaining games come against teams that figure to make the playoffs, with another two coming against the Utah Jazz, a fringe postseason team.

Based upon Portland's play thus far, it's safe to say that their playoff hopes are virtually dead with a month remaining in the regular season.

Playoff Odds: 4.3%