Analyzing the Premier League Relegation Battle

The Premier League season is winding down, and the table still has a lot of questions left to be answered. Can Tottenham hold off Chelsea, or perhaps catch up to Manchester City? Will Arsenal play in Europe next season?

Of course, the most important question being asked by many would be: Which three teams won't be playing in the Premier League next season? Indeed, the bottom half of the table still has a lot left in store for us.

The bottom 11 teams in the league are separated by just 10 points, with the top five of that group even on 33 points. Sure, they've got a nine point cushion on the drop zone, but bad runs of form can suck you down pretty quickly.

B/R's Sam Tighe put out a great assessment of the situation yesterday; This article will aim to go a little deeper into each team's prospects. We'll work our way from the bottom and move up the table.

Let's roll!

Queens Park Rangers

Current position: 20th, 23 points, (-21) goal differential

Home matches remaining: Wigan, Stoke City, Arsenal, Newcastle

Away matches remaining: Aston Villa, Fulham, Everton, Reading, Liverpool

Queens Park Rangers only escaped relegation last season as their dramatic loss to Manchester City was cancelled out by Bolton dropping points. This season, they're sitting dead-last as they have for much of the season.

But just one point behind the 18th-placed team, and looking positive overall, there's hope at Loftus Road. It all started when Harry Redknapp took over in November, and he guided his new side to a win over Chelsea and draws with Spurs and City in January.

Now, consecutive wins over fellow bottom-six sides Southampton and Sunderland have the Rs looking to climb back into safety. They've finally got a high-class scoring threat in Loic Remy, and were equally shrewd to add former Blackburn defender Chris Samba to the ranks.

Their upcoming schedule is interesting. They've got a crucial game in store on April 7 as drop-threatened Wigan come calling in what could be a major turning point for both sides, as well as a trip to fellow strugglers Reading near the end of the season.

They may find points difficult to come by against the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool and Everton, but the rest are certainly matches in which they'll be looking to do some damage and make up some ground. Can they do it? They've got the potential.

Reading

Current position: 19th, 23 points, (-21) goal differential (ahead of QPR based on goals scored)

Home matches remaining: Southampton, Liverpool, QPR, Manchester City

Away matches remaining: Manchester United, Arsenal, Norwich, Fulham, West Ham

Reading's biggest accomplishment this season came when they stormed to a shock 4-0 lead against Arsenal in the League Cup, only to fall 5-7 after extra time. They racked up 10 points from five January matches, including wins over Newcastle and West Brom, and were safe for the time being.

January also saw striker Adam Le Fondre and manager Brian McDermott win the Barclays Player and Manager of the Month awards, respectively. Since the awards were announced, though, they've failed to pick up a single point, a run that has seen them plummet to a points tie with QPR.

Le Fondre made a huge impact in January without starting a single game, with a brace in a dramatic comeback against Chelsea epitomizing that. But since then, he's failed to make an impact, and his team have suffered.

So much so that they went and sacked McDermott, the man who quite confidently brought this side to the top of the Championship last season. The four straight losses, especially against strugglers like Wigan and Aston Villa, were just too much.

Face-planting at the wrong time, Reading now face a brutal stretch that sees them face Manchester United and Arsenal. On the road. Consecutively. A win over Southampton after that might be too little, too late for this side, unless they can pull something out of their hats.

Wigan Athletic

Current position: 18th, 24 points, (-22) goal differential

Home matches remaining: Newcastle, Norwich, Tottenham, Aston Villa, Swansea

Away matches remaining: QPR, West Ham, West Brom, Arsenal, Manchester City

Wigan Athletic have been an interesting case over the last few years. They've escaped relegation in each of the last two seasons but left it extra late to do so. Somehow, Roberto Martinez has found a little extra in his team to get them by at the death.

He'll need to do it again this year, but there's an added wrench in the machine: the FA Cup. The Latics rode a four-minute power surge to defeat Everton 3-0 and now enter the semi-finals, where they will face the winner of the Blackburn/Millwall replay.

With an added game, and possibly two, to add to their schedule, they're going to be pretty busy over the final two months as Premier League matchups get rescheduled to fit their Cup run. Matches with City and Swansea have already had to be moved, to as yet undetermined dates.

Those two are tough matchups, but casting those aside leaves a good handful of games which they can expect to gain points from, with six against the bottom 10. But of course, Martinez has a tall task having to shuffle squads to balance gunning for a trophy with gunning for survival.

It's a tricky balance to keep, but they've got reasonable squad depth to help keep some players rested. Making one a priority over the other is also damning, but assuring themselves top-flight status should be more important.

Aston Villa

Current position: 17th, 27 points, (-26) goal differential

Home matches remaining: QPR, Liverpool, Fulham, Sunderland, Chelsea

Away matches remaining: Stoke, Manchester United, Norwich, Wigan

Aston Villa have never been relegated from the Premier League (since its inception in 1992), but even the more pessimistic Villa fans out there couldn't have been "prepared" for what their team has gone through this season.

A dismal stretch that started near the end of the calendar year saw Villa surrender 15 unanswered goals in a three-game span, including eight to Chelsea, and they failed to win until last month's win over West Ham, before which they sat 19th in the Premier League.

A pair of losses to top-five teams was followed by last weekend's win over Reading, which has Villa now sitting 17th, three clear of Wigan. It wasn't pretty, but Paul Lambert's men got the job done at the Madejski.

Christian Benteke has proven an unbelievable signing, with 12 league goals in his first season in England. He'd probably be the "bargain of the year" were it not for Michu. Supported by Gabriel Agbonlahor and Andreas Weimann, there's plenty of talent to keep this team safe.

They're the only side of the bottom four with more home matches than away remaining on their schedules. With meetings with QPR and Sunderland among them, plus winnable away matches, Villa looks to be a decent bet to hold on to their top-flight status.

Southampton

Current position: 16th, 28 points, (-12) goal differential

Home matches remaining: Liverpool, Chelsea, West Ham, West Brom, Stoke

Away matches remaining: Reading, Swansea, Tottenham, Sunderland

When Southampton sacked manager Nigel Adkins in January, the Saints had just knocked off Aston Villa at Villa Park, and had climbed to a reasonable 15th in the Premiership. The timing just seemed confusing more than anything.

Sure, the four other wins racked up to that point were against weak teams in Villa, QPR, Newcastle and Reading. Five wins in 21 matches isn't great, especially considering they were all relatively winnable. But for a newly-promoted side, they were doing well.

New manager Mauricio Pochettino's run at the helm started off okay. A fightback draw at Chelsea preceded a draw with Everton and a close loss to Manchester United. Not two weeks after that, the Saints pulled off a stunning 3-1 win over Manchester City that might've ended the title race.

This season, Soton have had a number of heroes. Rickie Lambert's proven a force at the front, while midfielder Morgan Schneiderlin is growing in quality as the season progresses. New signing Artur Boruc made a crucial penalty save on Saturday to snatch a point against Norwich.

Like Villa below them, the Saints have five home matches to four away. The home schedule is tough, though, and they could surrender crucial points. So they'll have to rely on beating Reading and Sunderland.

Sunderland

Current position: 15th, 30 points, (-9) goal differential

Home matches remaining: Norwich, Manchester United, Everton, Stoke, Southampton

Away matches remaining: Chelsea, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Tottenham

Speaking of the Black Cats, perhaps one of them has crossed the past of Sunderland recently, because they're dropping quickly. If they're not careful, they could suffer the biggest drop of them all.

Like Southampton, they picked up a home win over Manchester City, and were as high as 11th after defeating Wigan in January. But they've earned just two points in the six games since, and now sit 15th and in trouble.

This run has seen them lose to both Reading and QPR, the two bottom teams in the current standings. They've failed to take advantage of winnable games, and as such see themselves mired in a struggle, even if manager Martin O'Neill isn't surprised about it (via Goal.com).

Encouragingly, they club have lessened their over-reliance on Steven Fletcher that saw them stagnate somewhat in the early stages. Stephane Sessegnon and Craig Gardner in particular have picked up their goalscoring rates, though Gardner's three most recent goals are all penalties.

Regardless of who's scoring, it just matters that they're scoring. And Sunderland haven't done enough of that. A crunch clash with Norwich just above them in the table is next, and failing to get the right result their could see their dismal spell run well into April as matches with United and Chelsea follow.

Conclusion

So how will things finish? It's really tough to say, just because anything can happen over the next two months. Injuries, fatigue, and pure luck can shift a team's momentum in either direction, throwing a wrench into the relegation machine.

However, based on what we've just discussed, here's how I see it:

15. Aston Villa

16. Queens Park Rangers

17. Sunderland

18. Southampton

19. Wigan Athletic

20. Reading

Projecting how things will finish is one thing. Actually watching things play out is another. This ought to be a crazy final stretch, with the above teams and perhaps a couple others fighting it out the whole way.

Agree/disagree? Let me know below or on twitter.