College Football: 16 Teams That Are Locks to Win 10 Games in 2013

In 2012, there were 26 college football teams that won 10 or more games. All have a good shot at repeating that feat.

But after closely examining the 2012 season—and factoring in the players who left for the 2013 NFL draft—16 teams are almost guaranteed to win 10 again in 2013.

The most likely comes in at No. 1.

*Draft info from CBSSports.com

16. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

2012 record: 11-3

2012 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 6-1

Tulsa doesn't lose any irreplaceable players this offseason, and that plays heavily in its favor in 2013.

Working against Tulsa's chances of winning 10 games again  is the fact that it won so many close games last season. All it would take is for two of those games to flip over to losses to keep them out of double digits.

The Golden Hurricane belong on this list, but they are precariously perched at the precipice of nine or 10 wins. Just a nudge in the wrong direction could ruin everything.

15. San Jose State Spartans

2012 record: 11-2

2012 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 2-1

San Jose State lost just one game that was decided by less than a touchdown. That loss was a three-pointer to eventual Pac-12 champion Stanford.

San Jose State didn't do badly at all in 2012's edition of Conference USA, and David Fales' return under center promises similar results in 2013.

Of course, if all the games decided by less than a touchdown were to land in favor of the Spartans' opponents in 2013, they would fall just below the 10-win mark.

David Quessenberry, the anchor of the offensive line, will be leaving for the NFL this offseason. That may throw a wrinkle into the 2013 game plan, but it shouldn't be a big enough issue that it costs the Spartans two wins.

14. Cincinnati Bearcats

2012 record: 10-3

2012 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 1-3

Cincinnati could have done a lot better than it did in 2012, but the Bearcats couldn't catch any breaks when it came to close games.

Cincy got all of its losses by a touchdown or less. If even two of those games went the Bearcats' way, Cincinnati easily could have been in the BCS picture.

In 2013, the Big East will have Houston, SMU and UCF among its ranks, and Cincinnati will take on both SMU and Houston.

If Cincinnati loses more than three games, it will be due to the out-of-conference schedule. The Bearcats take on Purdue and Illinois. Both of those games are winnable for the 'Cats, and even one loss that early in the season won't hurt them too badly.

Cincinnati should easily cruise to a 10-win campaign in 2013.

13. Nebraska Cornhuskers

2012 record: 10-4

2012 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 4-1

Nebraska dropped a few games in 2012, but only one of the losses was close. Nebraska also had a knack for winning the close contests.

Nebraska earned its way into the 2012 Big Ten title game over Michigan, Northwestern and Michigan State. The Cornhuskers hit a bit of a snag in that game, losing to Wisconsin. But they had beaten the Badgers already during the regular season.

Nebraska also got a tough draw in the postseason against the almost-SEC champion Georgia Bulldogs. After getting edged out by Alabama in the conference championship game, Georgia played with a chip on its shoulder in its win over the Cornhuskers in the Capital One Bowl.

Nebraska's Taylor Martinez should be much improved in 2013, and all potential Nebraska NFL draftees are expected to go late in the draft, if they are selected at all.

The only thing standing in Nebraska's way of a 10-win season is Nebraska.

12. Kent State Golden Flashes

2012 record: 11-3

2012 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 2-2

Kent State threw down on some serious wins last season and split all its close games. The Golden Flashes are poised for a repeat in 2013, especially with lead running back Dri Archer returning.

Archer rushed for 1,429 yards last season. His backup, Trayion Durham, rushed for 1,316. Kent State is looking at another great season with those two in the backfield.

That the Golden Flashes only lose two offensive linemen this offseason makes 2013 look even more promising.

If Kent State doesn't win 10 games next season, it will be a total surprise.

11. Florida State Seminoles

2012 record: 12-2

2012 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 2-1

Florida State is losing EJ Manuel, as evidenced by his Senior Bowl outfit in the picture. Manuel is one of many departing stars.

Bjoern Werner is the No. 1 defensive end in the draft, Xavier Rhodes is the No. 2 cornerback, Menelik Watson is the No. 7 offensive tackle and Cornellius Carradine is the No. 9 defensive end.

With Manuel as the No. 6 quarterback, that's five players inside the Top 10 at their positions who are leaving the Seminoles.

So why is Florida State on this list? The Seminoles will likely play 13 games next season, which will give them freedom to lose three games and still break the 10-win barrier.

Clemson will probably be one of those losses, and Miami could be a second. Even with a third unexpected loss, Florida State will be in the Top 25 with 10 wins at the end of 2013.

Florida State may not be a national-championship candidate, but the Seminoles clearly belong on this list.

10. Ohio State Buckeyes

2012 record: 12-0

2012 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 6-0

Ohio State's position at No. 10 on this list may seem a bit low. Urban Meyer took the Buckeyes to an undefeated season in his first year at the helm, and that looks like a good reason to have them near the top of the "guaranteed" crowd.

However, the Buckeyes won half their games last season by a touchdown or less, including overtime wins over Purdue and Wisconsin. The Wisconsin win doesn't look too bad, but that Purdue win leaves a little doubt as to what Ohio State will do with everyone gunning for them.

Ohio State won only six games in 2011, which allowed the Buckeyes to take the Big Ten by surprise in 2012. That won't be the case in 2013.

The ultimate advantage for the Buckeyes is Meyer's coaching. He took Ohio State from six wins to 12 wins in one year. That means that the Buckeyes should be good enough to win at least 10 games next season.

If the Buckeyes can make it to the Big Ten title game, they'll have a total of 14 games. They can easily make it through the season with fewer than five losses.

9. Florida Gators

2012 record: 11-2

2012 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 3-0

Florida had a huge letdown in the Sugar Bowl against Louisville, waiting until far too late to mount any semblance of a comeback.

Part of that could have been due to a letdown after the Gators had come close enough to the BCS title game to taste it. Had Notre Dame lost to USC, there was a chance that the Gators would have been invited to play against Alabama for the crystal football.

What actually happened was Florida tried to come back against Teddy Bridgewater with the nation's 118th-ranked passing attack. Obviously, that didn't happen.

On the bright side, Florida won every close game that it played. While the Gators lost to Georgia during the 2012 regular season, they overcame their self-induced adversity quite well.

Florida looks good to win at least 10 in 2013, despite losing the following players to the NFL: Sharrif Floyd (No. 1 DT), Matt Elam (No. 1 SS), Jordan Reed (No. 6 TE), Jon Bostic (No. 4 ILB) and Josh Evans (No. 8 FS).

The loss of Caleb Sturgis (No. 2 K) will be devastating to the special teamst, but he's replaceable. Florida had the country's No. 5 scoring defense in 2012. The 2013 season won't be won or lost by the defense; it will hinge on the play quarterback.

The defense made up for the lack of passing attack in 2012, but you're not supposed to make it to the Sugar Bowl without an aerial assault.

The quarterback situation should be much better in 2013, whether it's incumbent starter Jeff Driskel or a newcomer. And if that is the case, the Gators will reel off another 10-win season or better.

8. Louisville Cardinals

2012 record: 11-2

2012 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 6-1

Louisville's 11th win of the season came against the Florida Gators in the Sugar Bowl. The Gators mounted something that looked like a comeback late in the second half, but Louisville just laughed at the effort.

Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater isn't about to let a team come back in the fourth quarter. He's just too good, and Louisville's team is just too good. It doesn't have a great clock-eating rushing attack, but the aerial onslaught that Bridgewater brings to the table is excellent.

With Louisville's performance in the Big East last season, there's little doubt that the Cardinals can repeat the 10-win accomplishment. The real question is whether the Cardinals can make it back to the Sugar Bowl.

They are talented enough, but they likely won't get a boost from another Northern Illinois situation again. The Cardinals are still good enough to rip off 10 wins before the postseason even gets sorted out.

The odds are certainly in their favor, and it's still their Big East to lose.

7. Northern Illinois Huskies

2012 record: 12-2

2012 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 4-1

Northern Illinois won a few close games last season, but there were eight games that weren't close at all. The Huskies commandingly made it within two games of 10 wins, and quarterback Jordan Lynch became a household name in the process.

Lynch will be back in 2013, and there's a huge probability that he will lead his Huskies to yet another stellar season. Northern Illinois may not crack the BCS again, but the Huskies will certainly get close if they miss.

If they can defeat Iowa and Purdue from the Big Ten, the Huskies will be back in the BCS. If that happens, they'll also be better prepared to win at the BCS level.

Either way, Northern Illinois is winning 10 games. There's little doubt about that, especially with Lynch as a trump card.

6. South Carolina Gamecocks

2012 record: 11-2

2012 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 3-1

South Carolina capped off the 2012 season with a gigantic win over Michigan. It made the cut for "gigantic" because of the circumstances that unfolded.

Michigan was awarded a phantom first down, Jadeveon Clowney stole the ball back on the next play, and the backup quarterback, Dylan Thompson was forced to carry the team to victory after Connor Shaw left the game with an injury.

South Carolina faces all its familiar opponents in 2013, plus it doesn't draw Alabama, LSU or Texas A&M from the SEC West. The schedule favors the Gamecocks, as they can lose to Georgia and Florida and still win 10 games during the regular season.

With a backup quarterback who can beat Michigan, South Carolina has a real shot at an appearance in the conference title game. Winning 10 games will be a breeze, as long as everyone stays healthy.

5. Texas A&M Aggies

2012 record: 11-2

2012 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 3-2

The loss of offensive tackle Luke Joeckel to the NFL may cost Texas A&M a national championship in 2013, but it definitely won't cost A&M its potential 10-win season.

The Aggies return phenom Johnny Manziel, the 2012 Heisman winner, at quarterback, and he will lead them to another red-letter season. Again, it takes a lot to get through the gritty SEC schedule. Especially challenging will be a Sept. 14th game against Alabama, which will be looking to avenge last year's loss to the Aggies and will have two weeks to prepare for its trip to College Station.

Alabama and LSU stand between Texas A&M and a national championship. But even losing those two games wouldn't cost the Aggies a 10-win run.

Take a look at the schedule, you'll see that there's nothing standing in the Aggies' way but themselves.

4. Clemson Tigers

2012 record: 11-2

2012 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 2-0

Clemson has been trading ACC championships with Florida State over the past two seasons, and it's Clemson's turn to win it in 2013.

Of course, this is assuming that Virginia Tech or Miami doesn't come out of nowhere to ruin the Tigers' plans.

Clemson is entering the 2013 season with Tajh Boyd returning at quarterback. Even losing wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and running back Andre Ellington won't be enough to derail the Tigers' hopes of earning the  ACC berth in the Orange Bowl.

Of course, winning 10 games is far easier than winning the ACC, and the Tigers are practically guaranteed 10 wins. The only question is whether the Tigers can dominate the conference enough to earn a berth in the BCS title game.

3. Georgia Bulldogs

2012 record: 12-2

2012 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 2-1

Georgia hasn't won fewer than 10 games since the 2010 season, and that was Aaron Murray's first year as the go-to quarterback for the Dawgs.

Murray will be back in 2013 as the starter, and he will be out for blood. The Bulldogs lost the SEC title game to LSU in 2011, and they lost the same game to Alabama in 2012.

The difference was that Georgia might have won the 2012 edition with a few more seconds on the clock or a little good luck on the final play of the game.

Georgia has gotten closer and closer to winning the conference over the past two years. And if you believe in statistics as a predictor, 2013 is Georgia's year to win it.

Even if you don't believe in short-term statistics, it's easy to see that 2013's schedule doesn't contain more than three losses for the Bulldogs.

Clemson, South Carolina, LSU and Florida are the major challenges on Georgia's schedule. All Georgia needs is one win out of that group, and the Dawgs are a lock for a 10-win season.

Georgia will win at least one of those games, and that will put them on the road to a potential national championship. Only a flat tire would force them to stop short of 10 wins.

2. Oregon Ducks

2012 record: 12-1

2012 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 0-1

There has been a bit of personnel shuffling at Oregon, but it hasn't exactly resulted in a regime change. The old offensive coordinator is now the head coach.

Oregon's defense is solid enough to consistently contend for the Pac-12, but the offense is the golden goose. In Oregon's 2012 season, only one game was close. That was the loss to Stanford in overtime.

Every single one of the Ducks' 12 wins was by more than a touchdown, even the shootout against the USC Trojans.

Oregon's offense has carried it to a 10-plus-win season every year since the nine-win season of 2007. That's five straight years of 10 or more wins for the Ducks.

If they were going to falter, it would have been during one of the quarterback changes. For instance, when Marcus Mariota took over last season, it would have made sense for Oregon to go through a rebuilding process as Mariota got used to the speed of the college game.

Instead, Mariota led the Ducks to a huge 12-win season that ended with a demolition of the Kansas State Wildcats in the Fiesta Bowl. There is no reason to believe that Mariota and company won't shred the Pac-12 for another 10-win season in 2013.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

2012 record: 13-1

2012 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 2-1

Alabama is in the same boat as Oregon. The last time the Crimson Tide won fewer than 10 games was in 2007 in Nick Saban's first season.

Since then, Alabama has had a great run that includes three national championships in the last four years. The Tide won the crystal football in 2009, 2011 and 2012. The "terrible" 2010 season saw Alabama win 10 games but come nowhere near the national championship game.

Alabama had 13 wins in 2012, and the Tide's only loss came at the hands of Texas A&M. Alabama nearly lost to LSU and Georgia, but there are a few things playing in Alabama's favor in 2013.

Alabama has bye weeks before the Texas A&M and LSU games next year. With that kind of preparation time, the Tide are almost locked in to the SEC title game. The 10-win mark has practically become a given in Tuscaloosa.

The national championship is the bigger question. Will the Tide three-peat? Possibly, but they will absolutely win 10, even with three top-tier offensive linemen leaving for the NFL.