Predicting the Atlanta Falcons' Free-Agent Signings

The NFL's free-agent market is about a week away from opening, and the Atlanta Falcons appear to be in position to make a little bit of noise after clearing some cap space by releasing three key veteran players last week.

However, even with the added cap space, the Falcons may not be as active as many people think they will be on the free-agent market. 

The team needs to re-sign free agents like William Moore, Brent Grimes and Sam Baker, and also sign a draft class in April.

Indeed, Atlanta Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff has already stated that the team's focus is to build through the draft.

If you put Dimitroff's comments in context with the fact the team is coming off of a 13-3 season that saw them just miss the Super Bowl, Falcons' fans probably shouldn't expect a huge shopping spree from Atlanta once free agency starts.

Let's try to project what moves Atlanta might make in free agency, as we examine the team's current roster as well as the team's pending free agents.

Quarterback

Under Contract for 2013: Matt Ryan, Dominique Davis

Notable Falcons' Free Agent: Luke McCown

Projected Free Agent Additions: None

While Thomas Dimitroff won't commit a specific timeline for negotiating a contact extension for Matt Ryan. Atlanta could free up even more cap space by lowering Ryan's projected $12 million dollar cap hit in 2013 if they sign their franchise quarterback to a long-term deal this offseason. 

Joe Flacco's new contract will likely serve as a benchmark for any potential deal with Ryan, with Ryan's value coming just short of the reigning Super Bowl MVP's.

As for Ryan's backups, look for Dominique Davis to be given every opportunity to become the primary backup this offseason. Luke McCown signed a one year, $825,000 deal with the Falcons just before the start of the season, and he would be forced to take a similar deal if he wants the chance to return.

If Ryan signs an extension this offseason, expect him to get a deal for six or seven years for around $110 million.

Running Back

Under Contract for 2013: Jacquizz Rodgers, Jason Snelling and Bradie Ewing

Notable Falcons' Free Agent: Michael Turner (released)

Projected Free Agent Additions: None

Despite the speculation linking Steven Jackson's name to Atlanta, I predict that the team will ultimately choose to go in another direction. 

Jackson, who turns 30 in July, is only about a year younger than Michael Turner. After Turner's release, Dimitroff alluded to the fact that the Falcons were one of the oldest teams in the league last year. 

If the Falcons want to get younger at running back, Jackson isn't the answer.

Mike Smith has already hinted that the team believes that Jacquizz Rodgers can be a three-down back.

As  ESPN's Pat Yasinkas points out, the Falcons are a pass-first team now. There's no need to bring in a back like Jackson when Atlanta can find a quality running back in the middle of the draft to help split carries with Rodgers and Jason Snelling.

Wide Receiver

Under Contract for 2013: Julio Jones, Roddy White, Harry Douglas and Drew Davis

Notable Falcons' Free Agents: None

Projected Free Agent Additions: None

Given the need to re-sign players at other positions of need, pursuing a veteran free agent receiver like Randy Moss probably isn't in the Falcons' best interest. 

If Atlanta adds another receiver, it will probably be late in the draft.

Tight End

Under Contract for 2013: Chase Coffman, Tommy Gallarda

Notable Falcons' Free Agents: Tony Gonzalez, Michael Palmer (Restricted Free Agent)

Projected Free Agent Additions: None

On paper, tight end remains Atlanta's biggest hole as the Falcons await a decision from Tony Gonzalez.  Jared Cook would have been an attractive option on the free agent market, but reports indicate that Tennessee will use their franchise tag on him.*

Although quality players like Dallas Clark, Martellus Bennett and Delanie Walker will soon become available, look for the Falcons focus their efforts on getting Gonzalez back into the fold before pursuing a free agent tight end.  If Gonzalez doesn't return, I expect the Falcons to address the tight end position early in the draft.

Contract For Gonzalez if he returns should be in the range of 1 year, $3-5 million.

*UPDATE:  NFL.com (via Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean) reports that the Tennessee Titans have decided not to use their franchise tag on Jared Cook after deciding that they didn't want to arbitrate over whether Cook should be tagged as a tight end or wide receiver based on how the Titans used him last year. 

Cook went to high school in the Atlanta area and is a name to keep an eye on now that it appears he will get to test the market.

Offensive Line

Under Contract for 2013: Tyson Clabo, Justin Blalock, Peter Konz, Lamar Holmes, Mike Johnson, Joe Hawley and Phillipkeith Manley

Notable Falcons' Free Agents: Sam Baker, Garrett Reynolds and Todd McClure

Projected Free Agent Additions: None

Ryan Clady received Denver's franchise tag, William Beatty re-signed with the Giants and Jake Long sounds like he's out of Atlanta's price range. 

That means Sam Baker should benefit the most from Atlanta's recent cuts that reportedly saved the team close to $16 million.

The Falcons could use another guard for some added depth, but none of the pending free agents at the position offer a significant upgrade over what Atlanta has. 

Contract for Baker should fall somewhere between Tyson Clabo's 5 year, $25 million deal from 2011 and Will Beatty's new 5 year, $38.75 million contract.

Defensive End

Under Contract for 2013: Kroy Biermann, Cliff Matthews and Jonathan Massaquoi

Notable Falcons' Free Agents: John Abraham (released), Lawrence Sidbury

Projected Free Agent Addition: Osi Umenyiora, DE, New York Giants

Given that Atlanta won't make their first selection until the end of the first round, the Falcons are probably going to have to spend some money in free agency if they want to improve their pass rush.

Osi Umenyiora offers an intriguing option. 

The Falcons have already had internal discussions about adding the 31-year old pass-rusher to the roster, and his presence could aid fellow Troy alum Jonathan Massaquoi's development.

If the Falcons don't add Umenyiora, Dwight Freeney and Paul Kruger are two other names to watch. 

However, Freeney is only about a year younger than Abraham, and Kruger should demand a contract in the $40 million dollar range.

Projected contract for Umenyiora, 4 years, $20 million.

Defensive Tackle

Under Contract for 2013: Jonathan Babineaux, Peria Jerry, Corey Peters and Travian Robertson

Notable Falcons' Free Agent: Vance Walker

Projected Free Agent Additions: None

The Falcons may have a decision to make about Peria Jerry since he's entering the last year of his rookie deal

Other than Jerry, the Falcons' interior defensive line should return pretty much intact assuming that Vance Walker is re-signed.

The Falcons could use a big nose tackle to help out their run defense.  If they don't land one in the draft, I wouldn't be surprised to see them pursue a veteran defensive tackle after teams make their preseason cuts.

Projected contract for Walker, 3 years, $3-4 million.

Linebacker

Under Contract for 2013: Stephen Nicholas, Sean Weatherspoon, Akeem Dent and Robert James

Notable Falcons' Free Agent: Mike Peterson

Projected Free Agent Addition: Philip Wheeler, LB, Oakland Raiders

The Falcons only had five linebackers on their active roster last season, so they will need to add at least one other player with Mike Peterson's likely departure. 

In addition, Stephen Nicholas struggled at times in pass-coverage and Akeem Dent was inconsistent.

At 6'2", 240 pounds, Raiders linebacker Philip Wheeler has the size and athleticism to significantly improve Atlanta's linebacking corp. Wheeler finished with 109 tackles and three sacks in 2012.

If the Falcons sign Wheeler, they will free up an additional draft pick to spend on a running back or tight end in the middle rounds.

Projected contract for Wheeler, 5 years, $15-20 million.

Cornerbacks

Under Contract for 2013: Asante Samuel

Notable Falcons' Free Agents: Dunta Robinson (released), Brent Grimes, Christopher Owens and Robert McClain (Exclusive Rights Free Agent)

Projected Free Agent Additions: None

Robert McClain isn't really a free agent at all since the Falcons are the only team that he can re-sign with because he only has two accrued seasons in the NFL. 

McClain filled in admirably for Brent Grimes last season and figures to have an even bigger role in 2013.

Like Sam Baker, Brent Grimes figures to benefit from the cap space that the Falcons created. Grimes probably won't command as much as he would have on the market last year before his Achilles injury, but Atlanta will still pay a significant price to retain his services.

If Atlanta can re-sign Grimes and Christopher Owens, I wouldn't expect a significant free agent acquisition at CB.

Projected contract for Grimes, 3 years, $10-15 million dollars.

Safeties

Under Contract for 2013: Thomas DeCoud, Charles Mitchell

Notable Falcons' Free Agents: William Moore, Chris Hope

Projected Free Agent Additions: None

William Moore is arguably Atlanta's top free agent priority. There will likely be a stronger market for Moore than there will be for Sam Baker or Brent Grimes

Even if the Falcons are able to re-sign Moore, they may need to sign a younger backup to replace Chris Hope. 

However, I wouldn't expect the team pursue a backup safety before pursuing potential starters at other positions

For that reason, I'm not predicting any significant free agent acquisitions at this spot.

Projected contract for Moore, 5 years, $18-22 million.