The NBA Rapidfire Report: Top Writers Talk Up the Offseason and Draft

"

"

The NBA Rapidfire Report: The NBA Offseason and Draft

"

"

The 2007-08 NBA season is racing toward its zenith as playoff seeding and MVP talk intensifies. This week, however, we’ve decided to a break from the rousing finale of the regular season and take a look at the offseason and beyond.

Which of the league’s worst teams (Knicks, Heat, Memphis, Seattle, Minnesota) has the best chance of a winning record next season?

Andrew Ungvari: The Heat, and not because they've shown any promise this year. It's because they're in the Eastern Conference. They're assured a top four pick, and because they should see the return of healthy Dwyane Wade, and the possible return of Alonzo Mourning.

If they end up with Michael Beasley then they're looking at a potential starting lineup of Wade, Marcus Banks, Shawn Marion, Beasley and Mourning. If they end up with Derrick Rose then they're looking at a lineup of Rose, Wade, Marion, Haslem and Mourning. Either five gives them a top six starting lineup in the Eastern Conference.

Joe Willett: If I had to choose, I would pick the Heat just because they are the only team with star power with Dwyane Wade and possibly Shawn Marion to potentially make some big name free agents join their squad. 

 New York spends way too much money on bad free agents. Memphis, Seattle, and Minnesota are more than a few moves away from becoming a major contender.  In reality, I can't really see any of these teams getting enough good players to make the jump into a positive record.

Stan Stancill: The Heat will have the most likely chance of a winning season because of what they have done this year and what they will do in the offseason.

With the Miami Heat having the worst record in the NBA, they will probably get the top pick in the draft and select Michael Beasley, to no one's surprise. That will also help lure a big name free agent to the Heat and make them a better ball club.

Andrew Kneeland: Coming from a Minnesota fan, I'm going to say the Timberwolves will be the best next year. They have a future All-Star in Jefferson, a good guard in Foye, and a good defender in Brewer. Add to that a lottery pick this year, and the Timberwolves should play very well next year and beyond.

They have already showed great improvement in recent weeks. The reason I think that they are on the bottom of the Western Conference is because of the lack of time that they have spent together. Give them a few more months, and they should be a top-ten team in the West.

Which older conference powerhouse is in the most danger of falling off next season (Boston, Detroit, San Antonio, Dallas)?

Andrew Ungvari: I'm going to say the Mavs, but the fall-off could happen this season.

The Celtics only significant free agent is James Posey and that's only if he decides to opt-out.

The Pistons will be fine in the East since the maturation of their young bench will over-compensate for the aging of their starting five.

The Spurs are getting older but their health issues this season don't seem to be age-related. As long as they have Greg Popovich, Tim Duncan, and Tony Parker they'll be competitive.

The Mavs, on the other hand, have the highest payroll in the NBA. Even with Michael Finley's $19 million amnesty contract coming off the books, they are still over the cap. If they miss the playoffs or get knocked out in the first round, I expect the Mavs to fire Avery Johnson within 48 hours and trade Josh Howard.

The team would prefer to trade Jerry Stackhouse, Erick Dampier or Jason Terry, but Stackhouse won't bring them back a significant player and Dampier and Terry are signed to eight-figure salaries through 2011.

Joe Willett: Dallas is going to have a tough time next season. Dirk Nowitzki isn't the same player that he was in his MVP season and can't really create a better team around him.  Jason Kidd was a one year chance and it hasn't really had too much of a effect on the team. 

Age is hitting this team hard and they are probably going to hit a wall next season.  I'm probably being a little bit too hard on them, but I could realistically see them not even making the playoffs next season, and they could be replaced by the Portland Trail Blazers.

Chad Ridgeway: The Mavericks because they’ve already fallen off. They can’t beat a winning team and will struggle to be a winning team next year. They’re going to miss the playoffs this season, which will lead to a summer of epic turbulence that would make the Lakers jealous.

Will Avery be fired? Will the roster be overhauled? These are questions that only Mark Cuban can answer, as his expression grows ever more psychotic from his usual seat at games.

Andrew Kneeland: The Spurs because the average age of their starting five right now is 31. Yes, I know that Dallas is lower in the standings right now, but they have just added new talent, and should improve soon. San Antonio, however, is packed with a bunch of middle-aged men with no real great backups.

Tyler Hansbrough: the next Carlos Boozer or the next Mark Madsen?

Andrew Ungvari: I don't think he's either but he's somewhere in the middle. He's more skilled than Madsen and not nearly as skilled as Boozer.

The type of player Hansbrough becomes depends on the team that drafts him. If he's counted on to be a franchise cornerstone then he'll fail and end up playing in Turkey.

If he gets drafted by a playoff team in the mid-to-late 20s, then I think he becomes a valuable contributor. He's the type of player that elicits cheers from the hometown fans the moment he jumps off the bench. There isn't a team in the NBA that doesn't want a David Lee or a Ronny Turiaf. Hansbrough has the potential to be that kind of player.

Joe Willett: Tyler Hansbrough is not the next Carlos Boozer, but he also isn't Mark Madsen.  I think that he is somewhere in between. 

He should be an average power forward/center, but he doesn't have the size to become a dominant player like Carlos Boozer. He has the drive that will keep him involved in games, but I worry that his constant motor is going to get him injured a lot against the bigger players in the NBA. 

It will be the same thing as Reggie Bush; he relied on his speed in college but when he got to the pros, the other players were able to catch up with him. Hansbrough is going to be in for a rude awakening when the other players bring the same level of intensity that he brings night in and night out.

Chad Ridgeway: White guys that aren’t athletic don’t make it in the NBA unless they possess exceptional passing skills (Steve Nash, Brad Miller, Luke Walton), exceptional shooting skills (Jason Kapono, Steve Kerr), or are decent at both along with exceptional inbounding skills (Matt Bullard).

Hansbrough doesn’t have any of these things, but he’s more talented than Mark Madsen and being the next David Lee ain’t that bad.

Andrew Kneeland: A combination here. Hansbrough won't be as good as Boozer, and he won't be a bad as Madsen. He will be a good starter in the NBA, and he does have talent, but he is no superstar.

I think he will be more like someone like Tyson Chandler. Chandler averages a double-double, and makes over $10 million a season, but isn't the superstar on the Hornets like Chris Paul. Hansbrough will be under-appreciated as he does the dirty work for a successful team.

Is Michael Beasley the consensus No. 1 pick?

Andrew Ungvari: It really depends on the team that's drafting first. Of the teams with the seven worst records in the NBA, I think the Heat, Grizzlies, Sonics and Bucks would take him. If the top pick goes to the Wolves, Clippers or Knicks then I think Derrick Rose is the pick.

Joe Willett: The only knock on Beasley, in my opinion, is that he hasn't played on a truly dominant team, but I can't think of another player who has been truly dominant like Beasley has been this past season. 

He grabs rebounds like nobody's business, and he can score like a madman.  In his first game, which most players usually struggle because of the difference between high school and college players, he dropped 32 points and grabbed 24 rebounds.  He continued at that level all season, and that should propel him into No. 1 status.

Chad Ridgeway: You don’t draft according to need with the No. 1 pick. You take the best player, and Michael Beasley is just that. There’s no way he doesn’t go No. 1.

Andrew Kneeland: I suppose so. It's between him and Derrick Rose right now I think, and Beasley edges out Rose by a little bit.

Beasley is simply an awesome presence on the court, and is extremely versatile and diverse in his style of play. Rose will probably be the best point guard to come out of the draft in a long time, but I just don't see the Miami Heat taking someone to share the ball with Wade. I can't see anybody else taking Rose either.

The Bulls were a favorite to come out of the East yet they’ve disappointed all season, leading to the firing of Scott Skiles and a roster overhaul. What does the future hold for them?

Andrew Ungvari: The franchise is at a crossroads. They're running the risk that either Ben Gordon and/or Luol Deng pull a Joe Johnson and ask the team not to match whatever offer they get from another team.

They've missed out on Kevin Garnett and Pau Gasol. The only other big that they can make a run at is Jermaine O'Neal and I wouldn't bet on that.

I'm pretty sure that two of the four of Deng, Gordon, Kirk Hinrich and Andres Nocioni will be traded. The Bulls are only three games out of the last playoff spot but they'd be better off missing the playoffs and getting a top-ten pick.

Everything I've read points to Rick Carlisle being the team's next head coach. If they have another season like this one, then John Paxson will be gone at the conclusion of next season as well.

The Bulls always seem to get a tough schedule early in the season. This year,eight of their first 12 games were on the road. They went 2-10 in those games and blamed it on trade rumors and contract issues.

The key for them next season is to emphasize those first 15 games so that they don't spend the rest of the season playing catch-up. While some might say that it's unfair to play so many road games early on, I think the opposite is true. Isn't it easier to play the better teams early in the season before they've hit their stride?

Joe Willett: I have been able to witness this "action" first hand as a Bulls fan.  They are probably going to either lose Luol Deng or Ben Gordon at the end of season, and they still don't have a dominating big man. 

They flopped on the last two drafts with Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah.  They need to bring in somebody to dominate the inside and some star power on the perimeter. They will continue to be an average team that gets knocked out of the first round every single year.

Chad Ridgeway: John Paxson did a great job reviving the Bulls from the Krause era, but in hindsight, it’s easy to see he’s been a gutless GM. For years the Bulls have been the favorites to land KG, Pau Gasol, and even Kobe Bryant. Yet the only big name free agent they landed was Ben Wallace, which was the worst signing of the decade this side of the Knicks.

Their young team has not only run out of time, they have regressed. I don’t see any way they improve next season unless a new coach somehow invigorates the franchise, and if that’s the case, pencil him in for the 2009 COY award because Paxson ain’t gonna be the one saving them.

Andrew Kneeland: Whatever the Bulls are doing now, it's not working very well. They've got great talent on their team with Deng and Gordon, and if they hold on to those guys and pick up a few more through free agency and the draft, they should be very good in the coming years.

Then again, that's what they were saying during last year's off-season. Maybe they should try the Miami approach: bomb all your games in order to get a high pick. Or the popular Kevin McHale approach: act stupid and make very few if any smart moves in the off-season.

Who will reign the Pacific Northwest next season; the Portland Trail Blazers or the Seattle Supersonics?

Andrew Ungvari: You're assuming the Seattle Supersonics will still exist next season. Regardless, the Blazers are primed to make a run at the division title next year. While it looks as though Greg Oden should be 100 percent, it doesn't look like Rudy Fernandez will be joining him.

The Blazers own the rights to Fernandez, widely-regarded as European basketball's best player, but it doesn't look like he's going to pass up a guaranteed $25 million to play for a rookie-scale contract in the NBA just yet.

Even without Fernandez, the Blazers will be better. If a third-party doctor can declare that Darius Miles' knee injury is career-ending, then the Blazers might have some money to spend in free agency as well. Scary thought for the rest of the Western Conference. The Blazers only need a little infusion of veteran leadership to start building towards a title.

Joe Willett: As I mentioned earlier, the Trail Blazers are going to make huge strides next season.  Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Greg Oden are going to be beastly.  They should make it to the playoffs, and in about a year or two, they will be on their way to a finals appearance or, possibly, an NBA Championship.  They have the pieces and will be a tough victory next year.

Chad Ridgeway: The Blazers are already a winning team in the West and have a fantastic young nucleus. Pencil them in for the playoffs next season. However, I love the Sonics future (outside of relocating cities). Sam Presti has a clear vision for his franchise and has loaded up on the cap room and picks. Their future is as bright as anyone’s.

Andrew Kneeland: How about the Utah Jazz? They are doing great this year, although struggling on the road. If you are asking what team will do better next year out of Portland and Seattle, the pick has got to be Portland. They lead Seattle by 21 games in the Northwest conference right now. It's hard to overcome that in one season.

Which team has the most to gain and lose from free agency this summer?

Andrew Ungvari: This one isn't even close. It's the Golden State Warriors.

They could potentially lose Baron Davis, Monta Ellis, Andres Biedrins, Mikael Pietrus, and Matt Barnes in free agency. While it's highly unlikely that all five will go elsewhere, Ellis poses the biggest concern.

If Davis opts out of his deal and the team gives him a max extension, then they might be hesitant to match the offer the Grizzlies plan to make to Ellis. He's from Jackson, Mississippi, a mere three-hour drive from Memphis. The Grizzlies will be hard-pressed to make a splash in free agency to appease their bitter fans over the Gasol trade.

If they keep Davis and Ellis, Biedrins might bolt. Should they lose their only real big, they'll become even smaller and run the risk of being passed over by the Blazers. The other issue is whether or not Don Nelson decides to return next year or hand the reins over to Keith Smart. Nellie turns 68 in May. He might decide it's time to retire and move full-time to his crib in Hawaii.

Joe Willett: The team that has the most to gain is the Seattle Supersonics.  I've been tough on them, saying that they have some expiring contracts and will have plenty of cap space to build around Kevin Durant. 

Some players will go to them just for the chance to be with a developing young player, and they could capitalize on that, although nothing is for sure.  As for the team that has the most to lose, the Suns are going to have a hard time. 

Shaq isn't getting any younger and he still has a monster contract.  Along with the stars, Amare Stoudemire and Steve Nash, a lot of money will be tied up.  Leandro Barbosa and Raja Bell are also commanding some money, so they won't be able to add to an aging roster.  They won't exactly be losing players, but they are going to be unable to replace the ones that have some miles on them.

Stan Stancill: The Heat will have the most to gain during free agency. With Jason Williams, Ricky Davis, Dorrell Wright, Earl Barron, Alonzo Mourning, and Chris Quinn all having expiring contracts coming into this season, Miami should be able to land the big name.

Shawn Marion won't opt out of his contract because no team in the NBA will be able to give him the type of money he's getting in South Beach. Udonis Haslem stepped up in the absence of Dwyane Wade and look for him to continue his strong level of play next year.

Wade should be back to full strength next year after a long period of resting and recuperating during the offseason, and with Marion and Wade together they can lure another big name and start a trio. Not to mention they will receive a high pick in the upcoming draft.

The Chicago Bulls will be the team that suffers the most during this offseason with Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, and Chris Duhon departing the Bulls will be seeing red come October. You can see this coming from a mile after Deng and Gordon both turned down $50 million deals during the offseason.

They lose a boatload of young talent, and with Eastern Conference teams beginning to have cap room, Chicago may see the players they groomed become their own demise.

Andrew Kneeland: I think that Chicago has the most to gain. There are quite a few good names available this year, and like I said before, the Bulls need to do something to vamp up their team. The team with the most to lose I think would also be Chicago. If they don't do anything, they are almost certainly going to have another sub-par season next year.

Want to ask a question for the “NBA Rapidfire Report”? Interested in being on the panel? Email Chad Ridgeway at [e-mail]