B/R NBA March Roundtable: Sizing Up the Stretch Run

With the NBA regular season coming down the stretch, it was time to see why some teams have played so well since the All-Star break, and which teams are most prepared for the postseason. I’ve turned to Andrew Ungvari, one of Bleacher Report’s top NBA writers, and Allen Levin, the bright young community leader of the Miami Heat.

1) Since February, many of the Western Conference’s middle-tiered playoff teams have surged up to match preseason expectations. Which team of Denver, Houston, Utah, Portland, New Orleans, and Dallas is best prepared to win a playoff series?

Erick: Whether because of a return to good-standing health (Utah, New Orleans), or a fortuitous injury (Houston), the Jazz, Hornets, and Rockets have each played better basketball over the second half of the season than the first. Those squads have established themselves with the mercurial Nuggets, steady Blazers, and underwhelming Mavericks as the West’s non-elite playoff teams.

Since Utah can’t win on the road and faces a difficult road schedule to close out the season, they’ll enter the postseason without home court advantage. They’ll need a major break (an underwhelming opponent or a serious injury to an opponent’s key player) to advance to the second round.

Portland’s lack of experience leaves them at a disadvantage while Denver’s concentration lapses leave them paper tigers in the playoff jungle.

Dallas’ defense leaves them woefully unequipped to deal with the West’s power teams in the playoffs, especially if they face the Lakers.

New Orleans has too many games where they don’t play with total effort and teams that go through the motions lack the inner resolve to know how to win close road games in hostile environments.

Houston is rugged, battle-tested, and disciplined. Plus, whatever bad postseason karma they’ve accumulated under Tracy McGrady has been aired out with his knee injury. If their offense is somewhat stale, a more-experienced Yao Ming and a physical Ron Artest give the Rockets' offense more substance than it’s had in years past. Also their defense, possibly the best in the West, can offset some of their offensive deficiencies. This should be the season Houston breaks through.

Andrew: I'm going to say New Orleans based on experience and previous success. Denver and Utah rely way too heavily on home-court advantage, Houston and Portland have yet to have any recent history of success in the playoffs, and Dallas will either be playing the Lakers or Spurs—two teams they don't stand a chance against.

Allen: As usual, the Western Conference is stacked and crowded. Other than the Lakers and the Spurs, there is no clear cut favorite in the West. Every first round matchup in the West will be tough as every team has the ability to pull off an upset.

That being said, the most prepared team to win a playoff series in the West is the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have currently won six of their last seven games and hold a slim lead in the Northwest. They are the West’s fourth seed right now, and should face Portland in the first round with home court advantage.

While this would be an interesting matchup that would most likely need seven games, I suspect the Nuggets would finally get out of the first round. They are a great home team (27-8) and would be able to defeat Portland, as they haven’t been to the playoffs since the 02-03 season.

The addition of Chauncey Billups has really invigorated this Nuggets squad and it will show come playoff time.

2) Atlanta, Miami, Detroit, and Philadelphia have established themselves as the second tier of Eastern Conference playoff teams. Which of the teams has the best shot at moving on to round two of the postseason?

Erick: Philadelphia lacks the halfcourt offense to put pressure on battle-ready defenses so scratch them out and Atlanta still lacks a requisite degree of maturity. With the way Detroit’s offense has reacquainted itself with Rip Hamilton’s poetry around screens, and the way Detroit’s defense has played with purpose without Allen Iverson botching things up, they’re readying themselves for the postseason.

Unfortunately for the Pistons though, Michael Curry makes too many mistakes and isn’t the kind of coach who can make the quick, on the fly adjustments needed to win playoff games. With Dwyane Wade’s brilliance and Eric Spoelstra’s coaching, the Heat are the most prepared playoff team in the group.

Andrew: This is a tough one. I know it's not going to be Philly because they won't finish higher than sixth and they have no chance at beating Cleveland, Boston, or Orlando. Atlanta is the best home team of the group, Miami has the best player of the group (hands down), and Detroit has the most experience.

I'm going to say Atlanta since the Pistons have no shot at getting a first-round series at home and because a game seven between Miami and Atlanta would be played in the ATL. Despite the fact that nobody should be surprised if the Heat were to win that series, I can totally envision the Hawks winning a first round matchup with Miami in seven games. The Hawks are 26-7 at home (tied for sixth-best in the NBA) while the Heat are 12-19 on the road.

Allen: As it stands now, Atlanta and Miami have established themselves as the top two of the second tier Eastern Conference playoffs teams. Also if the season ended today, they would face off in the first round of the postseason. While Atlanta is the better team, I would have to give the Heat the nod for the best shot at moving onto the East Semi-Finals. While I might be biased, no one can deny that Miami has a little advantage called Dwyane Wade.

Wade has been scorching the league recently, averaging a league-leading 29.8 PPG while single-handedly carrying the Heat on his shoulders. In a first round matchup, Wade would be simply too much for the Hawks to handle, which is why I give the Heat the best shot at moving on to round two. Detroit is a fading franchise, while Philadelphia doesn’t really have much of a chance against the Magic.

3) The Phoenix Suns haven’t ignited under Alvin Gentry and are all but done in the West’s playoff picture. Was firing Terry Porter and restoring their run-and-gun offense the right decision?

Erick: 3) Frankly, no.

Phoenix’ players never bought into playing meaningful defense and post-oriented offense. With Amare Stoudemire’s immaturity and Grant Hill and Steve Nash’s silent sabotages, the Suns players’ agendas were to throw caution to the wind and play as loose and willy-nilly as possible.

No small wonder that as Phoenix has abandoned all pretenses of discipline, they’ve gone 4-8 against playoff teams under Alvin Gentry, with two coming in close wins against Denver and Utah, one coming against the mediocre Sixers, and the other coming in a stray shootout over the Lakers. All of the wins were at home.

With their high octane offense not working, and their players unwilling to commit to defense, the only step is to break everything down and start anew.

Andrew: It was the right decision, but not from a basketball standpoint. The city was beginning to lose interest in the team. Don't forget that Porter's firing was about a week after the Cardinals played in the Super Bowl. Suns' owner Robert Sarver and GM Steve Kerr knew that it was going to be a battle to get in the playoffs so they took a chance. The only thing wrong was that they had already traded away Shawn Marion, Boris Diaw, and Raja Bell.

It was really just a band-aid on a headache.

By the way, guess who touted Gentry for the job back on May 20 of last year? Here's what I wrote at the time:

"If not Iavaroni, how about Alvin Gentry? It's not like Gentry would mind reverting back to being an assistant next season after the team finishes 44-38 under him."

The Suns are currently 36-31 with eight home games and seven road games remaining. If they won all their home games and lost each of their road games they would finish exactly at 44-38.

I also wrote "The bottom line is that the Suns should not have pushed D'Antoni out the door if they didn't have a plan to replace him. Judging by the coaching search, they clearly didn't have one."

Say what you want about the job Rick Carlisle is doing in Dallas but at least Mark Cuban held off on firing Avery Johnson until he knew Carlisle was going to take the job.

Allen: Firing Terry Porter or not didn’t really matter for the Phoenix Suns. There mini reign as one of the Western Conference’s elite has simply come to an end and having Porter or Alvin Gentry as coach doesn’t really make a difference. The team simply doesn’t click anymore and they are in need of a rebuilding. While they haven’t ignited under Gentry, they are 12-8 under their interim coach and the reestablishment of their run-and-gun offense has certainly boosted their offense, as they are now the second highest scoring team in the league.

But in the end, the Suns will need to rebuild in the offseason and find players to surround Amar’e Stoudemire in order to get back on top.

4) The competition for the Eastern Conference’s eight spot is tighter than ever. Which team will capture the East’s eight seed?

Erick: Andrew Ungvari made a case for the Bobcats in a previous roundtable concocted in January, but the Bulls have made a nice push since dumping Larry Hughes and acquiring Brad Miller and John Salmons. My midseason pick was Milwaukee, but their schedule has been tough recently, and stays tough until the end.

Chicago only has one road game left against an expected playoff team, and after they play the Lakers, their toughest home game is against Miami. It will be hard for Chicago to miss the postseason with that schedule.

Andrew: I picked Charlotte in Blasco's last roundtable back in January and even though I still like the Bobcats chances I have to say Chicago is the front-runner.  That's mostly because they have the most home games remaining of the teams competing for the final spot. They also made the best move of the deadline as far as trying to make the playoffs this year was concerned. Both John Salmons and Brad Miller have fit in nicely.

Allen: The race for who will get eliminated by the Cavaliers in the first round, aka the 8th seed, comes down to Chicago and Charlotte. In the end, the Bulls will capture the East’s eighth and final playoff spot. Chicago has won three straight games and is 6-4 in their last 10 games. They also hold a 2.5 game lead over 9th seeded Charlotte, which is enough to hold on in the bottom half of the East.

But the main reason they get the nod for the 8th seed is because of their schedule. The Bulls have arguably the easiest remaining schedule in the NBA, as they face only three playoff bound teams in their final stretch, and no division leaders.

5) Michael Beasley was expected to be an impact rookie in the NBA, but he hasn’t been the superstar people thought he would be. What’s the problem, if there is one, with Beasley?

Erick: Beasley’s problems (poor basketball IQ, poor defense, an inability to play without the ball, or to pass with the ball) stem from his development. Touted as a superstar wherever he’s been has inflated Beasley’s sense of himself. His arrogance and immaturity have been documented from high school up to the rookie camp incident with Darrell Arthur and Mario Chalmers.

Plus, Beasley’s talents have allowed him to excel at preparatory levels despite being unrefined. Why bother knowing the nuances of five-man offenses, when he could automatically beat his man one-on-one? Why bother focusing on defense when he could be allowed to coast against inferior high school and college offenses?

Without being pushed by his coaches, of course Beasley would have a limited understanding of these topics necessary to professional success.

The Beasley situation is an indictment of college basketball in general, especially the mythic credos about sound fundamentals and the passion for the game that college basketball players employ, but that is for a different article altogether.

So Beasley is left playing catchup as his Heat have more pressing concerns like competing in the postseason than babying Beasley along.

The true test of Beasley’s desire and character as a pro has not come this year, but next year. He’s said all the right things, and reports of his work ethic and practice habits have been favorable. How much he dedicates himself to understanding and mastering principals this offseason, combined with learning lessons from this season will determine if he has the goods to be a star, or if he’s simply an overhyped, underwhelming scorer.

Because the talent is there.

Andrew: I don't think there's a problem with Beasley at all. I think that both Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra made the decision to bring Beasley along slowly in an attempt to break his bad habits and turn him into a power forward. They are trying to mold him before it's too late and he becomes set in his ways. I think it's a smart strategy. Look at what the Lakers did with Andrew Bynum. For three years he looked like a bust when in reality he was a raw seven-footer with limitless potential.

Expectations are just too high. Next year when people expect less of him we'll be able to get a better read if he was the right pick over O.J. Mayo or even Eric Gordon.

Allen: I don’t think there is any problem with Michael Beasley. While he certainly hasn’t had the impact that Derrick Rose or OJ Mayo has had with their respective teams, he still has had a good rookie campaign. He is third on the Heat in scoring at 13.3 PPG, to go along with 5.2 rebounds and a 46.5 shooting percentage from the field. In addition, he has been very reliable, only missing one game the entire year.

Another factor that has to be looked at when determining Beasley’s impact as a rookie, which is the team he plays on. If you look at all the other “top rookies,” you will notice that not one of them plays on a plus .500 team. Other than Beasley, only Rose is on a playoff-bound team. Russell Westbrook, Mayo, Brook Lopez, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, and D.J. Augustin all play for the league’s bottom feeders. This has to be considered a factor in Beasley’s production. He also plays alongside the league’s leading scorer in Dwyane Wade, which slightly hurts his offensive numbers.

But, to put things into perspective, here is a quote from Pat Riley. “If Beasley averaged 30 minutes a night, he’d score 24 points a game. If he played 40 minutes, he’d lead the league in scoring. Now, he might give up 30 on the other end. There’s a lot of things right there, but a lot of things wrong, too.” Just wait, Beasley will become a force in this league sooner rather than later.

6) Who is this year’s Rookie of the Year after three-quarters of the season?

Erick: Derrick Rose. In a handful of years, his name will be mentioned with Chris Paul and Deron Williams. His court vision, athleticism, strength, speed, and decision making are all exceptional, and he knows how to score, how to assist, and how to run an offense. O.J. Mayo might be the Grizzlies’ scorer, but Rose will be the Bulls’ Mr. Everything.

Andrew: I think Derrick Rose will win the award, especially if the Bulls make the playoffs. I picked Mayo before the season, but he seems to have hit the rookie wall. Other than Rose, I wouldn't have a problem with either Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, or Brook Lopez winning the award. I have to say that this year's rookie class has been pretty impressive—especially the lottery picks.

Allen: The honor of Rookie of the Year hasn’t really changed all year. It has always been and will be Derrick Rose of the Chicago Bulls. While rookies such as OJ Mayo and Russell Westbrook have made their cases, this award will certainly go to Rose. He is second in rookie scoring with 16.5 points per game, only behind Mayo, while also contributing 6.2 assists, 3.7 boards, and 0.8 steals in almost 37 minutes a game.

He is also leading his Bulls into the 8th seed in the East, which is even more of a reason to give him the nod for ROY.

7) The Denver Nuggets have spiraled down from having the second best record in the NBA to bottoming as the seventh seed, before rebounding into the fourth position in the West. Why did the Nuggets drop down?

Erick: The Nuggets have always been prone to concentration lapses in the Carmelo Anthony era, and that’s no different this year. Games Denver won earlier in the year despite those lapses are tougher to win in the second half because opponents usually begin to pick up their focus in preparation for the postseason. Those lapses are reasons why the Nuggets are more pretenders than contenders.

Andrew: The Nuggets drop off hasn't happened for any particular reason other than their schedule becoming more difficult. They are a .500 road team and since Feb. 4 they have played 13 of their last 21 games on the road. While they were able to win games against quality home teams like Miami, Orlando, and Philadelphia, they stumbled against inferior opponents like New Jersey, Milwaukee, Indiana, and Sacramento.

Allen: The Nuggets had nothing more than a minor hiccup. They have surged back into the Northwest division lead after a four game win streak and now have the West’s fourth seed. They are 7-6 in the month of March, which is mainly due to some defensive struggles, but, they’ve rebounded and look good in the West’s playoff picture.

8) The Houston Rockets have won 16 of their past 21 games since early February, with their only losses coming to the Lakers, the Spurs, in Utah twice, and in Chicago. The streak coincides with Tracy McGrady’s decision to shut himself down for the rest of the season. Is Houston’s success without T-Mac a coincidence or was he a reason for Houston’s struggles?

Erick: On the court, despite his world-class athleticism, McGrady was always brittle, played half-hearted defense, and settled way too much. With him out of the picture, the Rockets have been able to successfully mold their team into a rugged squad based on physicality, awareness, and defense, none McGrady’s strong suits.

Off the court, the Rockets were always left wondering. Will McGrady play tonight? If he does, how healthy will he be and how effective can he be? Houston could never adequately prepare for teams because they never fully knew what they themselves had. With McGrady out for the duration, and Houston’s other key components finally healthy, the Rockets are allowed to find a rhythm because they finally know what they have.

Plus, Ron Artest is now Houston’s main offensive weapon and he’s a stronger off-ball player than McGrady. Defensively, Artest and Shane Battier comprise the best pair of defensive wings in the game. When McGrady was healthy, one of those two players would be coming off the bench and would be playing less minutes.

It’s no coincidence that Houston’s defense has really locked in with Artest allowed a bigger role and McGrady on the sidelines.

Andrew: It's not as if think that the Rockets don't have the potential to be a better team with T-Mac than without him. But our colleague Robert Kleeman hit the nail on the head back in February. The Rockets needed closure more than anything. They needed to exhale after holding their collective breaths while waiting for McGrady to return. Was he going to play or not?

The difference now is that each night they know who they are going to battle with and grow as a unit instead of keeping their eyes on the injury report.

Allen: After almost five seasons with T-Mac on their team, the Houston Rockets have nothing to show for it except for consistent first round exits. Sadly, McGrady was the reason for the Rockets struggles. He simply can’t get it done come playoff time and is not an effective leader. Under Yao Ming and Ron Artest, the Rockets have surged to the West’s third seed, and overtook the Spurs for the second seed, if only for a short time.

McGrady is a cancer in Houston’s locker room and is one of the most injury prone players this league has ever seen. Since being in Houston, he hasn’t played one full season, including this year’s 35-game effort. He was averaging 15.6 PPG before his injury, which is the fourth worst of his 12-year career. The Rockets have great role players in Luis Scola, Von Wafer, and Aaron Brooks and still have a legitimate superstar in Ming.

The combination of these players will give them a good opportunity for a deep run in the postseason.

9) The Charlotte Bobcats have surged up from the depths of the Eastern conference and are knocking on the door of their first ever playoff berth. What has been the reason behind their success and do they have enough to slip into the playoffs?

Erick: The Bobcats have gotten inspired team play out of their entire roster. Wwhen they shipped out guys like Jason Richardson, Matt Carroll, and Adam Morrison and brought in players Raja Bell, Desagana Diop, Boris Diaw, and Vladimir Radmanovic, they really improved their depth, their defense, and their versatility. They still don’t have the offensive punch to consistently beat good teams, but they get the most out of what they do have.

They have a tough schedule to close the year so it looks like they’ll fall short in the playoff hunt, but they’re setting themselves up nicely for next season.

Andrew: As I stated earlier, I've been on the Bobcats bandwagon since before the start of 2009. The reason for their success is that they finally have an identity with Larry Brown at the helm. Thanks to a few trades Brown has a roster comprised of role players who are committed to playing team defense.

Last year, the Bobcats finished 20th in points allowed at 101.4 points per game. This season they are seventh in the league giving up only 94.6 ppg.

On the offensive side they are getting contributions from everybody. Take a look at their game results this season. Notice how rarely the same player leads the team in scoring two games in a row.

Because of the downturn in the economy, the Bobcats are one of only a few buyers willing to take back players in trades with more years on their contracts than the guys they are giving up. They gave up Jason Richardson, Jared Dudley, Adam Morrison, Shannon Brown, Matt Carroll, and Ryan Hollins and replaced them with Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, Vladimir Radmanovic, DeSagana Diop, and Sean Singletary.

Sure they gave up the best player of the entire group, but they ended up with a much better group from top to bottom.

Allen: The Charlotte Bobcats are finally out of the East’s cellar and are close to their first ever playoff birth. Unfortunately, they will come up just short as the Bulls have a little more firepower than they do. The Bobcats are a mere 1.5 games back from the East’s 8th spot, but I don’t think they will have enough to surpass the Bulls.

Either way, they have a good season for a team that is used to be dead last in the East.

The main reason for their recent success?

Larry Brown.

Brown has done a great job coaching this young team and his players respect him. In addition to Brown, the acquisition of Boris Diaw and Raja Bell has really rejuvenated this team. They have both contributed really well for the ‘Cats.

10) Chris Paul and Deron Williams will forever be linked as the third and fourth selections of the 2005 NBA draft. Which is the better player?

Erick: It‘s Deron Williams.

Paul is the fastest player in the league and possesses great vision, anticipation, and an unstoppable right-handed handle. But he never goes left, isn’t a great finisher, usually falls away from contact rather than embraces it, and isn’t great at shooting off the bounce. Also, when he can’t gamble his way into a forced turnover, he can be posted up or beaten off the dribble.

Williams is much stronger, a much better finisher, a much better shooter, has a much better left hand, and is a much better on-ball defender. Williams is also infinitely better both at setting and fighting through screens.

What hampers Williams is his decision making on the road where he too often forces passes which aren’t there. Williams also plays in a system which limits stat generation, while Paul is asked to either score or assist on the majority of New Orleans’ field goals, inflating his numbers.

If Williams played in New Orleans’ screen/roll all the time offense, he’d no doubt put up monster numbers himself, while Paul’s lack of strength would render him less effective in Utah’s offense predicated on screens and physicality.

Each player has allowed to be great because they’re in perfect places that get the most out of their incredible skills.

Andrew: I'm going to give the edge to Paul by the slightest of margins. Both guys are unbelievable talents and both should finish in the top-10 in MVP voting this year. I'm going with Paul because he’s turned two teammates who were considered flops before he became their teammate, into an All-Star and another into an Olympian.

I'm pretty sure that a team with Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko would be just as good with Paul, but I can't say that the Hornets would be as good with Williams instead of Paul.

Give me either of these guys at their current ages and I'd be one happy fan. You can make the case that these are the only two jerseys that fans can buy and be assured that both players will still be wearing them in three years.

Allen: Chris Paul and Deron Williams are two of the best point guards in the NBA today. They both are leading their teams to the postseason in a crowded Western Conference. But, the award for better player hands down goes to Chris Paul. Many analysts would agree that if teams could go back to the 2005 NBA draft, Paul would be selected before Williams, if not first overall. Andrew Bogut and Marvin Williams went one and two, respectively.

Everyone knows they haven’t had the type of impact Williams and Paul have had on their teams.

Paul is the better player simply because of his well-roundedness. The Wake Forest product averages unreal numbers of 22 PPG, 11 dimes, 5.2 boards, and 2.8 steals, while shooting 50 percent from the field. He is a triple-double threat every night and is one of the league’s most efficient players. He also has an outstanding ability for driving the lane and finding his open teammates.

Paul will be known as one of the best point guards this league has ever seen when his career is over.