UFC on FOX 5: Early Odds and Predictions

With UFC 154 in the books, the next major event on the MMA horizon is UFC on FOX 5, which comes to us on Saturday, December 8. 

When ratings for previous FOX showings didn't quite live up to the hopeful expectations of the Zuffa brass, they decided that the best course of action would be to slam the next event full of big names and exciting fights.

The card for the network television broadcast includes four fights:

• UFC Lightweight Championship: Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz
• Shogun Rua vs. Alexander Gustasson
• BJ Penn vs. Rory MacDonald
• Mike Swick vs. Matt Brown

With a world title fight and two former champions on the card, it's clear that the UFC is pulling out all of the stops to ensure that ratings for this event are above their predecessors. 

Looking ahead two weeks, let's take a look at the early betting odds and predictions for each contest.

Mike Swick vs. Matt Brown

Betting Odds: As of the time of publication, no oddsmakers have offered a line on this fight.

Prediction: Mike Swick and Matt Brown represent the tough and gritty strikers who both have a formidable grappling game, and this fight truly could go either way. 

While Swick has an advantage in technical striking, Brown has an innate ability to make most opponents engage him in a rough game of dirty boxing.

I feel that this fight will look very similar to the UFC 116 contest between Brown and Chris Lytle. It was a battle where both men slugged it out, but also had some thrilling exchanges on the ground. Unfortunately for Brown, I think it will end the same way. 

Mike Swick wins via submission in Round 2.

For more reading about this fight, B/R MMA's Riley Kontek put together a Head to Toe Breakdown.

Rory MacDonald vs. BJ Penn

Betting Odds: Rory Macdonald (-280) over BJ Penn (+220) at BetDSI.eu

Prediction: Penn has tremendous boxing and incredible grappling, but as a natural lightweight, he will be undersized and overmatched in this contest. 

MacDonald met Nate Diaz, another lightweight masquerading at 170 pounds, at UFC 129. The younger Diaz brother has similar strengths and weaknesses to Penn, but was tossed around the cage for 15 minutes before losing a unanimous decision.

I don't see this fight going any differently. 

Rory MacDonald wins via unanimous decision.

For more reading about this fight, B/R MMA's Riley Kontek put together a Head to Toe Breakdown.

Shogun Rua vs. Alexander Gustafsson

Betting Odds: Alexander Gustafsson (-200) over Shogun Rua (+160) at Sportsbook and BetDSI

Prediction: Striker vs. striker contests are always a fan favorite, and the evening's co-main event should have no trouble living up to the expectations.

Gustafsson and Rua have 27 knockouts between them, and while Gustafsson is a rising commodity in the MMA world, I don't think it is acceptable for people to count Rua out of this contest.

Admittedly, Rua has had trouble in the later rounds of his recent bouts, however, the bouts where his gas tank has emptied too soon were ones where he absorbed a lot of damage in the first few minutes of action. This should not be an issue against Gustafsson, who does not have similar striking power.

Shogun will look to take this fight to the ground, as he did against Brandon Vera. By utilizing his solid top game and superior jiu-jitsu, he will be able to avoid the strongest weapon in Gustafsson's arsenal.

Shogun Rua wins via TKO (ground and pound) in Round 2.

For more reading about this fight, B/R MMA's Riley Kontek put together a Head to Toe Breakdown.

Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz

Betting Odds: Benson Henderson (-140) over Nate Diaz (+110) at Sportsbook

Prediction: Diaz has incredible boxing, which may be nullified by Henderson's black belt in taekwondo. And while the second strongest weapon in the Diaz bag of tricks is his submission game, Ben Henderson has some of the best submission defense in the history of the lightweight division.

Both men have epic cardio, and each is as well-rounded as they come. Neither man has ever been knocked out, nor have they been submitted in the past five years. So, how do you determine a winner in such a tightly-matched contest?

You have to look at judging criteria and the way that the scorecards seem to sway. The wrestling of Henderson ensures that Diaz will be on his back at several points of this fight.

Even if Nate can neutralize the damage that Bendo will look to drop down on him from above, the simple fact that he is the man on bottom will lead the judges in Henderson's direction.

Benson Henderson wins via unanimous decision.

For more reading about this fight, B/R MMA's John Heinis put together a Head to Toe Breakdown.