NBA: Worst-Case Scenario for Every 2012 1st-Round Pick in His Rookie Season

Just because a prospect is a first-round pick in the NBA draft doesn't mean he's destined for success.

There have been some absolute train-wreck rookie seasons and careers from first-round selections (think Hasheem Thabeet or Greg Oden).

What about the 2012 draft class? What if things don't turn out as rosy as everyone hoped? We have to wonder what the worst-case scenario is for every first-round selection.

Anthony Davis, Kendall Marshall and Damian Lillard aren't 100 percent guaranteed to earn All-Rookie honors. Actually, the exact opposite could happen.

30. Festus Ezeli, Golden State Warriors

Golden State's roster was in a state of flux this offseason, with trades and a trio of draftees changing the complexion of the lineup—hopefully making Mark Jackson's life easier.

Bolstering the frontcourt is former Vanderbilt enforcer Festus Ezeli. His physique, wingspan and defense are ready to impact the pro game, but his limited offensive capabilities could be his Achilles' heel.

The Warriors aren't desperately in need of huge minutes from Ezeli, so the danger for him is that Andrew Bogut, Carl Landry and David Lee end up being all that Jackson needs. If Ezeli doesn't stand out, he and Andris Biedrins could form the garbage-time lineup.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Ezeli gets few meaningful minutes and spends some time in the D-League.

29. Marquis Teague, Chicago Bulls

Few freshman point guards can steer their college teams to an NCAA championship, but Marquis Teague's poise, athleticism and ball-handling skills were the perfect fit for Kentucky's talented group.

As he transitions to the Chicago Bulls, he has a terrific opportunity to showcase his value while Derrick Rose rehabs from ACL surgery.

The other two guards sharing the burden of replacing Rose are Kirk Hinrich and Nate Robinson. Teague has the combination of Hinrich's size and Robinson's speed, so he could end up being the best of the three.

However, Hinrich and Robinson are better shooters and more experienced NBA facilitators. This could work against Teague.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Hinrich and Robinson have renaissance years, and Teague averages less than six points and less than four assists per game.

28. Perry Jones III, Oklahoma City Thunder

Perry Jones III is well-equipped physically and has the potential to be a versatile player in the NBA.

He's 6'11" and can run like a deer, has a respectable outside shot and impressive aerial agility. If the Thunder can mold him into an interchangeable No. 3 and No. 4 forward, he could boost their output on both sides of the ball.

However, his lack of true mastery at a specific skill and below-average assertiveness could hurt his rookie campaign.

If Jones is role-less this winter, he won't help Oklahoma City much.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Jones struggles to find any kind of rhythm, shooting 37 percent from the field and 28 from three-point range, notching 4.4 points per game.

27. Arnett Moultrie, Philadelphia 76ers

Philadelphia has a glut of guards and swingmen, so Arnett Moultrie will be called upon to share power forward duties with Spencer Hawes.

Moultrie will have ample opportunity to contribute to Doug Collins' attack, but there are a couple of question marks that might be his undoing as a rookie.

If he fails in his first year in Philly, it will be because of his slight frame and under-developed skills. He doesn't exactly put the "power" in power forward and doesn't quite have the skills to be a successful stretch four.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Moultrie doesn't rebound or score effectively, getting less than six points and six boards per game.

26. Miles Plumlee, Indiana Pacers

In one of the most surprising picks of the 2012 NBA draft, the Indiana Pacers grabbed Duke high-riser Miles Plumlee with their first-round pick.

Although it seemed like somewhat of a reach, Plumlee backed up his draft status by shining in the Orlando Summer League, where he registered 13 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. He was then named to the all-summer league first team.

That's exciting for Pacers fans, but summer production doesn't always translate into regular-season success.

Inadequate post-up skills or face-up ball-handling could hamstring him.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Plumlee's lack of versatility make him a poor-man's Tyler Hansbrough. He could get less than 10 minutes per game if he doesn't play his cards right.

25. Tony Wroten, Memphis Grizzlies

If you watched some Washington Huskies hoops in 2011-12, you know that Tony Wroten is an immensely talented guard.

He has the tools to eventually be an excellent combo guard and floor general in the NBA.

But if he wants to have a banner rookie year and stand out with the Memphis Grizzlies, he'll need to expand his game and improve his jump shot in a hurry.

Lionel Hollins has depth at guard with Mike Conley, Jerryd Bayless and Josh Selby able to direct traffic, and Tony Allen and Wayne Ellington on the wing.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Wroten plays like a 19-year-old and ends up spending a chunk of time with the Grizzlies' NBADL affiliate, the Reno Bighorns.

24. Jared Cunningham, Dallas Mavericks (via CLE)

With his jaw-dropping bounce and elite body control, Jared Cunningham has the look of a future dynamic guard in the association.

The Dallas Mavericks were sold on his upside and high ceiling (no pun intended), and they could have themselves a premiere playmaking guard in the near future.

Things could be much worse for Mark Cuban and company if Cunningham becomes a 'tweener guard without a grasp of NBA offense (or defense, for that matter).

His decision-making skills and long-range shooting skills could be his own worst enemy in 2012-13.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Inefficient shooting haunts him, and he only notches four or five points per game.

23. John Jenkins, Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks drafted John Jenkins because he's a fantastic outside shooter, but if he remains a one-dimensional player, his NBA ceiling will be much lower than it could be.

He's not a horrible dribbler, but he definitely lacks the advanced ball-handling skills that are required of an NBA shot-creator. NBADraft.net's Jorrye Nixon diagnoses Jenkins' tendencies and how he'll be approached by opposing defenses:

"

Doesn’t have many moves when handling the ball and only does handle the ball when a jumper is simply out of the question. Off the dribble, especially when going left, Jenkins is almost exclusively looking for a mid-range pull-up. Teams will likely guard him very tight and look to make him a slasher until he shows more versatility putting the ball on the floor.

"

With limited skills comes limited playing time and the danger of never getting in a rhythm.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Jenkins is easily bottled up by opposing defenses and doesn't crack the main rotation.

22. Fab Melo, Boston Celtics

Brazilian center Fab Melo anchored the Syracuse post last season, consistently blocking shots, drawing charges and finishing alley-oops.

To win over Doc Rivers and contribute at a high level for Boston, he'll need to do much more than block a few shots or get some put-backs.

Melo must improve his ball-handling skills, interior passing and rebounding if he wants to rub shoulders with Kevin Garnett and Jared Sullinger in the TD Garden paint.

Celtics fans hope his summer league struggles are a thing of the past, but if they aren't, the bench will be his home for the wintertime.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Melo's ineffectiveness and lack of explosiveness earn him a ticket to the Main Red Claws of the NBADL, maybe for more than half the season.

21. Jared Sullinger, Boston Celtics

I tried to refrain from pulling the injury card for most of these players, but Jared Sullinger's springtime back issues might be a foreshadowing of his worst-case scenario.

Ultimately, it was injury uneasiness that caused him to slip so far on the draft board. Front offices were wary about a worst-case scenario that included chronic back issues, surgeries and a shortened career.

The talented Celtics forward can't pivot past anyone if he's not suited up.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Back problems plague Sullinger, and he spends the majority of the season as a spectator.

20. Evan Fournier, Denver Nuggets

Evan Fournier's foreign game translated well to the summer league, and it looks like he has the skills and instincts to prosper in the NBA.

But are his skills good enough for him to carve out a significant role on the 2012-13 Denver Nuggets? That depends on his outside shooting consistency and adaptability to the NBA pace and style of play.

Denver has several well-established small forwards and swingmen on its roster. Fournier must exhibit the traits of a competent No. 2 guard if he wants to see more than 15 minutes per game.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Fournier's adjustment to the NBA is a bit more difficult than expected, and the Nuggets let him regain his confidence in the D-League.

19. Andrew Nicholson, Orlando Magic

6'9" power forward Andrew Nicholson became a prolific scorer in the Atlantic-10 conference in college, and the Orlando Magic would love to see some immediate production in the paint next season.

He has several low-post moves and a developing mid-range game, and he showcased his competence in the summer league to the tune of 12.6 points and 6.8 rebounds per contest.

But Draft Express scout Derek Bodner warns us of an unsightly side effect of Nicholson's style of play:

"

"Turnovers tend to be a problem for Nicholson, and his 3.8 turnovers per 40 minutes pace adjusted (in college) is one of the worst numbers in our top 100 ranking. This is especially troubling considering how infrequently he creates for his teammates, with a pure passer rating of -7.97, which is the worst in our top 100."

"

If there's anything that's going to trip him up, it's the workload, turnovers and finishing in traffic.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Nicholson gets lots of touches, but he scores just 8.5 points and turns the ball over 3.5 times per game.

18. Terrence Jones, Houston Rockets

If No. 18 pick Terrence Jones reaches his NBA ceiling, he'll be considered one of the best steals in draft history. The Houston Rockets got a player who's strong, explosive, assertive and can rebound extremely well.

That doesn't mean there aren't holes in his game that could inhibit his success as a rookie.

Jones doesn't have the quickest release on his jumper, and his shot-creating skills outside the paint aren't impressive.

Also, he sometimes suffered mental lapses at Kentucky, so the Rockets hope he grows out of that.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Jones fails to establish a role as a forward, while Chandler Parsons (scorer) and Royce White (facilitator) thrive in their roles.

17. Tyler Zeller, Cleveland Cavaliers (via DAL)

Solid footwork, great court awareness and mobility are the hallmarks of seven-footer Tyler Zeller. The Cleveland Cavaliers recognized this and paid a high price to land him on draft night.

Byron Scott will rely on him to be one of the team's primary post players, alongside Anderson Varejao.

Is Zeller physically ready to play defense and rebound in the NBA, and is he dynamic enough offensively to be featured in the offense?

The hefty load of responsibilities could be a daunting task for the UNC star.

Worst-case for 2012-13: He gets bullied in the paint by the top power forwards and centers and averages fewer than eight points and six rebounds per game.

16. Royce White, Houston Rockets

In Royce White, the Houston Rockets have a prospect who could either be a star or a huge disappointment.

He's more likely to go the star route, due to his size and versatility. But a disappointing outcome is always a possibility, and if White ends up being a bust, his rookie season will be the first phase of his downfall.

If his anxiety issues get the best of him, that would be the worst-case scenario off the court; the worst-case scenario on the court would be his mediocre jump shot making him defendable.

Worst-case for 2012-13: White doesn't develop his outside shooting fast enough, thereby making him easier to game-plan for...or his anxiety problems completely derail his season.

15. Moe Harkless, Orlando Magic (via PHI)

Did Moe Harkless leave college too soon?

If that turns out to be true, we're about to see a rough season from the 15th overall selection.

He flourished at St. John's and was on the Big East leader board in several categories. But playing college hoops as an 18-year-old is a lot easier than playing professional basketball at 19.

In a few years, he could be a superb combo forward, but right now, he's not big enough to hang with bigger forwards and not skilled enough to thrive on the wing.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Harkless earns less than 15 minutes per game as he takes a backseat to Hedo Turkoglu, Arron Afflalo and Al Harrington.

14. John Henson, Milwaukee Bucks

John Henson's game is good. His frame is not.

If he struggles early in his career, it will be because his build is so thin and awkward that it's not conducive to power basketball or agility.

Henson's length will be useful around the rim on both ends of the floor, but it won't be any good if he's always bumped out of position and struggling to handle strong post players.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Henson's physical attributes prevent him from taking advantage of matchups, and he fails to produce despite significant playing time.

13. Kendall Marshall, Phoenix Suns

By the end of the 2011-12 season, Kendall Marshall was known nationwide as the passing wizard of the college game.

Phoenix isn't worried about his ability to run an NBA offense. The bigger concern is his mediocre skills in non-passing duties.

Marshall's outside shooting and underwhelming athleticism make him far less dangerous as a playmaker. It's going to be much more difficult for him to get to the rim than it was at North Carolina.

Defenses will test his range and overall scoring abilities, letting him try to beat them with his shooting rather than his passing.

Worst-case for 2012-13: His NBA-range three-point shooting isn't quite up to par, and it hurts his overall effectiveness when he's backing up Goran Dragic. Thirty two percent from three leads to 3.1 points and 3.8 assists per game.

12. Jeremy Lamb, Houston Rockets

2011 NCAA champion Jeremy Lamb could be corralled in his first year or two as a pro due to his slender build.

All the moves and fluidity he possesses are undermined by the fact that he'll struggle to drive the ball because of his weakness.

Houston's roster changed drastically over the summer, and Lamb has a chance to show he's crafty enough and resourceful enough to hang with the big boys.

On the other hand, an inconsistent jumper and lack of strength could flatten his rookie efforts.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Stronger guards out-match Lamb more often than not, and he sits behind Kevin Martin and Carlos Delfino for most of the year.

11. Meyers Leonard, Portland Trail Blazers

Portland's need for depth in the paint led to their selection of Illinois tower Meyers Leonard.

In one year, he went from unknown backup to lottery pick. The Trail Blazers are expecting a lot out of a post player who's had just one year of significant Division I playing time.

His combination of size, mobility and coordination is formidable, but his transition to the NBA might not be a cakewalk.

The speed and strength of the association will be a challenge for him, and his skills aren't advanced enough to outclass an above-average center. These shortcomings could lead to a frustrating first season.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Leonard is overmatched against the DeMarcus Cousins' and Kevin Love's of the west, and he fails to out-rebound his draft stature: 7.3 points and 6.3 rebounds on 43 percent shooting (awful for a big man).

10. Austin Rivers, New Orleans Hornets

Even though he's not a pure point guard, the New Orleans Hornets will likely be relying on Austin Rivers to run the offense and facilitate for his teammates.

After his summer league display, there are still some huge doubts that he can do it. In 32 minutes per game, Rivers dished out just 3.5 assists.

He also shot the ball inefficiently, which makes Hornets fans even more uncomfortable. But let's not forget that he's a dynamic, creative player who could excel if he's surrounded with better players.

Poor decision-making, substandard court vision and erratic shooting might make him the biggest disappointment of the draft.

Worst-case for 2012-13: He flounders his way through the season, averaging 28 minutes, eight points and four assists per game.

9. Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons

It's extremely rare to find a 6'11" basketball player with the strength of a linebacker and the speed and agility of a major league outfielder. Physically, the Pistons hit the jackpot with Connecticut behemoth Andre Drummond.

I wonder, however, if he doesn't become anything more than an alley-oop specialist and a shot-blocker.

His jump shot is non-existent, he can't square up and beat his opponents off the dribble, and his post-up game is in its primitive stages.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Drummond's progression offensively goes slower than expected, and he dunks his way to six points and five rebounds per game.

8. Terrence Ross, Toronto Raptors

Toronto is another team that saw a bunch of lineup shuffling in the offseason. With the deck shuffled, it looks like there's an opportunity for Terrence Ross to become the best true shooting guard on the squad.

But let's remember he's still young, adapting to the NBA game and NBA three-point range. A successful rookie year is far from a lock.

There are three swingmen who could overshadow him and give the Raptors a better chance of making the playoffs and competing in the Eastern Conference.

Linas Kleiza, DeMar DeRozan and Landry Fields could hog all the swingman minutes if Ross doesn't assert himself.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Ross is unimpressive on the perimeter, and the aforementioned trio overshadows him. He gets 18 minutes per game and shoots 33 percent from three-point land.

7. Harrison Barnes, Golden State Warriors

Athleticism, length and a NBA-ready shooting stroke propelled Harrison Barnes to the top of the ACC and into the top-10 of June's draft.

But the UNC star needs work in several concrete areas in order to become a legitimate threat with Golden State:

1. Improve advanced ball-handling (crossover, in-and-out, etc)

2. Develop jab step to set up first stride to hoop

3. Gain 10 more pounds of muscle

Worst-case for 2012-13: He doesn't address the above list and stays one-dimensional. Therefore, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Richard Jefferson all out-shine him.

6. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers

Easily the most captivating rookie in the summer league, Damian Lillard has Portland fans excited about things to come in the Trail Blazers' backcourt.

We know he can fill the hoop up, but what if he doesn't work out as a point guard?

The ball-handling skills aren't a problem, but he might have trouble making the right passes in his rookie and sophomore campaigns. Being a starting combo guard as a rookie is a tricky task.

Inefficiency could plague Lillard as a passer and a scorer in 2012-13.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Lillard scores 10 and dishes 4.5 assists per game, but he also turns the ball over 4.2 times per outing.

5. Thomas Robinson, Sacramento Kings

Thomas Robinson was the most forceful post player in college hoops in 2011-12, and the Sacramento Kings will ask him to bring that power to the paint as he teams up with DeMarcus Cousins.

Considering his career at Kansas, his strength and athleticism, it's safe to say that Robinson's worst-case-scenario isn't disastrous.

They know he's not the most advanced interior scorer, as he only has a few post moves. His offense could potentially get a little ugly in his rookie season, but his motor, rebounding and defense will keep him relevant.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Robinson gets lost in the shuffle offensively and only gets his points off rebounds or infrequent mismatches. This would limit him to eight to 10 points per game instead of 14 or more.

4. Dion Waiters, Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland made a bold move by picking Dion Waiters fourth overall, and his high draft status has already drawn high expectations.

Those high expectations led to disappointment after a second-rate summer league display. But let's be honest, 17 percent from three-point range is atrocious for any guard, no matter where they were drafted.

Waiters is still young and lacks a grasp of efficient basketball and quality possessions. This is something that might hamper his rookie progress and destroy the Cavaliers' chances of improvement in the Eastern Conference.

Worst-case for 2012-13: Waiters proves to be an inept shooting guard as a rookie, shooting just 29 percent from three-point range and 35 percent from the field. The low-percentage shooting yields just nine points per game.

3. Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards

As one of the youngest players in the entire draft (he turned 19 on draft night), Bradley Beal still has a lot of developing to do as a professional guard.

Shooting shouldn't be an issue at all, but his shortage of offensive creativity could pin him in the same corner as John Jenkins.

Beal is mature for his age, but it might take him a couple years to actualize the potential that the Washington Wizards' brass sees in him. 

Until then, he might struggle through the formative years.

Worst-case for 2012-13: He serves as little more than a spot-up shooter, making just two three-pointers per game and notching a total of 8.6 points per game. 

2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte Bobcats

Although his ceiling is high, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist could underachieve this year due to a couple key skill deficiencies and the overall weakness of the Charlotte Bobcats roster.

As Kentucky's utility player, MKG blossomed as a defensive star who filled in offensively where it was needed. Things are different now that he's a Bobcat.

His role is expanded now that he's the young hope for the franchise. They need him to lead on both ends of the floor, and it will be challenging for him to do so in a whole new league.

Kidd-Gilchrist's shooting needs polishing, and his deliberate ball-handling style won't be as effective in the NBA as it was in college.

Worst-case for 2012-13: He ends up being simply an energy player who guards the opponents' best small forward. His offensive output yields 8.3 points and 4.2 rebounds per game.

1. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Hornets

Due to his size, athleticism and instincts, the 2011-12 king of college hoops' worst-case scenario as an NBA rookie wouldn't be awful.

The team could potentially depend on him too much in the post, and his lack of strength and bulk could hinder his production.

Considering how much playing time he'll get, I can't imagine him notching fewer than six to eight points per game and six to eight rebounds per game.

His jump shot and ball-handling skills still need work; a slow progression in those areas could prevent All-Star type numbers.

Worst-case: Davis gets pushed around and only musters 7.8 points and 7.3 rebounds per game, shooting less than 50 percent from the field.