Oregon Point Guard Tajuan Porter: a Perfect Example Of Padding Your Stats

In the last two weeks, I came across two different situations regarding the padding of statistics.  Both really made me think about how worthy the PPG (points per game) statistic is in terms of measuring a basketball player.  While everyone will agree that an MVP is not determined entirely on scoring, we do tend to hold the scoring title as the most important category of statistic when determining a player's skill.

Situation #1

While at the University of Washington home game against Oregon two weekends ago, we saw Washington destroy the young Ducks squad. 

The first half was a complete massacre, as Washington stopped nearly every possession and seemed to score at will.  They out ran, out shot, out defended, out rebounded, and overall, out hustled Oregon.

The second half was a bit different.  The game was clearly over, with Washington up anywhere from 15-25 points at all times, but the Husky defense got a bit poor as they relaxed or gambled a bit too much. 

Then, out of the blue, Oregon’s Junior guard from Detroit, Tajuan Porter, slowly began to accumulate points.  He is a quick and capable scorer, but not a superstar by any means.  Porter began to drop threes from a few feet behind the arc, and he took more and more shots as the second half waned on.

We decided to leave the game a few minutes early in order to make our Valentine’s Day dinner reservation, but even as we walked out the door, Porter was still dropping shots from deep.  With his last shot before our exit, I heard the comment, “typical of Porter to start scoring now.” 

In other words, only when the game was out of reach would he truly get his points.

Porter finished with 33 points, including a 10-22 shooting performance with 6-13 from behind the arc, while his team was blown out 103-84. 

Seeing these stats after the game, I was quite shocked. considering how many shots were going in toward the end of the game, I felt sure Porter must have been shooting 75 percent from the field as we walked out the door.

But in reality, his standard 45 percent FGP was nothing to jump at.  What this means is that during the first half of the game, when it really mattered, he missed many more than he made.  In fact, checking the stats, he went 2-10 from the field in the first half.

What does this say about Porter as a player?

While I am sure many people went home thinking what a good game Porter had with his 33 points, in reality he was merely padding his stats when the game did not matter.  The Husky defence was less intense and he had easier opportunities to score. 

Even more importantly, during the first half, when the game was still in reach, he shot a dismal 2-10.  The fact that Porter is 10th in the league in scoring, averaging 15 points per game, makes me think about how good of a player he really is compared to the rest of the guys in the league.  He is definitely not the 10th best player in the league.  20th?  30th?  It is tough to say.

Situation #2

A favorite author of mine, Michael Lewis, is the author of Moneyball and The Blind Side, both studies analyzing players value based on a non-standard statistical analysis for their respective sport (baseball and football).  His quest to do the same for basketball has been long awaited, and he has finally done so in a New York Times article called The No-Stats All-Star by studying Shane Battier.

The article is extremely rich and in-depth.  It covers everything from the stats guys that teams are hiring these days to analyze the sport to ways to statistically analyze defense.  It also explains a bit of Battier’s history, much in the way that The Blind Side went into Ogden’s life. 

But it was Battier’s offense that I found intriguing.

Much of the article analyses a single game where Battier is guarding Kobe Bryant.  In the game, Kobe goes for 30 and Battier has 0 points with a few minutes left in the game.  Battier managed to drain a three with less than a minute to go, which I found quite impressive considering how cold he must have been shooting-wise.

It is one thing to avoid shooting to let better players shoot.  It is another to shoot until you get hot.  But to play as many minutes as Battier did and be able to drain a game-changing shot with 44 seconds on the clock is beyond strange.  Impressive, yes.  Smart, I’m not sure.

While the Lakers won the game on a last second shot, the article calls Battier’s performance a success due to his defense on Kobe.  However, I actually question if this is one of those instances where Battier should have tried to score a bit more early on. 

If a coach knows he is going to have a player in toward the end of a game who can defend and shoot like Battier, then that player should be at least comfortable scoring that day.  Get him a few points.  The first bucket is always the toughest.  It should not come when the game matters most.

I would not consider this padding the stats, but Battier is very careful of his stats.  One of the tricks I found most interesting is that he actually makes sure he shoots the full-court, quarter-ending buzzer beater AFTER the buzzer.  He knows the odds of that shot going in and the impact it will have on his shooting percentage. 

Selfish, yes. 

Smart, in regards to signing his next contract?  Extremely.

Stats Conclusion

There is no end-all solution to using statistics to analyze players performance.  In my opinion, both of these situations are needed to explain that analysis.  The stats guys in the Michael Lewis article will argue about how the plus/minus of a player can determine his value.  But what about when a player is racking up points during a blowout, such as in the Oregon game?

I do think there needs to be more statistics work done in studying and educating players. 

Every player should have the information Battier has at his fingertips.  Whether he decides to use them or not is his call.  In the end, however, there are situations beyond statistics that will always be more important for analyzing players ability.

*img source: babble.com