C.J. Spiller: Breaking Down Buffalo Bills' RB's Fantasy Value

After losing to the New York Jets Sunday 48-28, the Buffalo Bills have at least one thing they can be happy about: The emergence of young running back C.J. Spiller.

The Bills were dealt a tough hand when starting running back Fred Jackson went down with a knee injury in the second quarter. Jackson was attended to on the sidelines and was eventually taken to the locker room while Spiller was promoted to starter.

Once Spiller was the No. 1 back, something changed, and the talent that experts saw in college started to translate to the NFL.

While losing Jackson was terrible for Buffalo, it opened the door for Spiller to succeed. At worst, the Bills now have a two-headed monster in the backfield when Jackson returns to the lineup.

Update: Monday, September 10, 2:19 p.m. PT

Jackson's MRI results were inconclusive, but Will Brinson of CBSSports.com reports that Jackson's best-case scenario is a return in four weeks.

---END OF UPDATE---

The Fred Jackson Factor

As we saw in Sunday’s game, Jackson went down with a knee injury that looked severe enough to possibly keep him out of Week 2 action. If he misses time, this will be the second-consecutive season he has sat out due to injuries.

No. 2 running back C.J. Spiller should have more opportunities in the near future, although his fate depends on the severity of the knee damage and the timetable for a return. As we saw against the Jets, Spiller can be dangerous with even limited touches.

After Jackson injured his knee, Spiller received the bulk of the workload and carried 14 times for 169 yards and a touchdown to close the game. If the veteran can’t go in Week 2, the youngster will shoulder the burden against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Strength of Schedule

After having one of the toughest schedules in the NFL in 2011, the Buffalo Bills have a much easier task in 2012. The simple nature of the schedule lends itself to success for whichever back is taking the bulk of the workload that week.

No one is discounting the tough matchups against the San Francisco 49ers or the pair of games against the New England Patriots, but the majority of Buffalo’s schedule is fairly easy.

With the NFC West on the docket and teams like the Colts, Jaguars and Browns scattered throughout, the Bills have a great chance of making the playoffs despite their tough Week 1 loss.

If Spiller remains the starting running back over the next three weeks before the team’s meeting with the 49ers in Week 5, he will top 100 yards twice with three touchdowns total over that period.

Fantasy Predictions

The uncertainty around Jackson’s knee makes this situation very fluid, but even if he comes back healthy within two weeks, there is no guarantee that he will remain healthy for the remainder of the 2012 season (only played 10 games in 2011.)

Even if Jackson remains 100 percent healthy upon his return, Spiller earned himself more touches each week with his performance against the Jets.

With that said, Spiller will have a big 2012.

If Spiller can manage 175 carries over the course of the season, he will amass 1,200 yards on the ground and another 50 catches for 400 yards. At 1,600 total yards of offense, Spiller will catapult himself into the fantasy elite.

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