Alfred Morris: Complete Fantasy Profile and Draft Strategy

Fantasy football owners can never be for certain, but the ever-spinning wheel of Mike Shanahan's backfield might have briefly stopped on the relatively unknown Washington Redskins running back Alfred Morris.

A sixth-round pick in 2012 out of Florida Atlantic, Morris rushed for a team-high 195 yards and five yards a carry during three preseason games in 2012. Shanahan, historically known as the most unpredictable coach in the NFL in terms of using running backs, appears ready to give Morris a chance to contribute for the Redskins early in 2012. 

And just like that, Morris gained some fantasy value for Week 1 of the NFL season. 

Here's a more complete fantasy outlook for Morris in 2012.

General Fantasy Info 

Average Draft Position: 170.0, or undrafted (ESPN)

Player Rank: 63rd among RBs (ESPN, standard scoring)

Suggested Round: 12th round or later

Season Projections: 65 points (ESPN.com)

Bye Week: 5

Latest News

Morris was a healthy scratch during Washington's final preseason game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a decision from Shanahan that may signal a big role set aside for him in the Redskins' season opener in New Orleans. 

A week earlier, Shanahan said that Morris was definitely in the running to be the team's starting running back to open up 2012, according to Chris Russell of ESPN 980 in Washington, D.C. 

Roy Helu and Evan Royster played well in the preseason finale with Morris out, so this situation remains fluid. Still, expect a defined role for Morris in the opener. 

Playing-Time Outlook

This really is the unanswerable question when talking about a Shanahan backfield. Who really knows who will play and who won't?

The Redskins backfield in 2012 will likely be a fluid, week-by-week situation. Whichever back is playing the best during a given week or stretch of weeks will play. The rest will bottom-feed off whatever is left of the carries and touches. 

That certainly doesn't give much help from a fantasy perspective, but it is the reality of the Washington backfield in 2012.

Season Projections

Given the uncertainty of touches and playing time, projecting a season's worth of stats for Morris almost isn't worth the attempt.

But here's my best guess: Morris will play well some weeks, struggle mightily during others. He's going to be a spot starter during some weeks and matchups, and unplayable others, whether it's because he fell out of favor or the matchup isn't right.

But overall, there will be some production to live off of. Probably not to make Morris anything more than a full-season backup, however. 

It's a bland, generic projection, but guessing this backfield is a fool's errand anyway.  

Projection: 101 carries, 445 yards, 4 TDs; 15 catches, 164 yards, 0 TDs

Same-Tier Players

At the point in the draft where Morris becomes an option, the difference between taking him and the hundred other names becomes relatively small.

But here's a few names I'd easily take Morris over in most draft formats: James Starks, Mike Goodson, Isaiah Pead, Jahvid Best, Evan Royster and Alex Green. Your confidence in Shanahan will then have to dictate how high up the board you want to take an emerging player like Morris. 

Fantasy Summary

Don't become a fantasy owner that drafts Morris crazy-high because of what he produced during the preseason. There's a million stories and examples of why that's a bad idea. 

Waiting on Morris to fall deep into the draft is your best plan. Toward the end of most 12-team drafts, Morris is a solid option as a backup running back option with a potentially high upside. 

Remember, Morris has stayed healthy throughout the preseason, while Helu and Royster have dealt with injuries. If either (or both) backs continue that trend, Morris could be in line for a big number of touches in some weeks. 

But of course, that too is a guessing game. Don't gamble and lose with Morris. Stay safe and give yourself a chance for a big gain without the big risk.