2012 Heisman Candidates: 7 Who Will Flame out by Midseason
While college football fans get increasingly pumped with the first Saturday of the 2012 season on the horizon, Heisman hopefuls all across the nation are gearing up for a run at the trophy.
Both the experts' and oddsmakers' choices are in, and the overwhelming favorite this season is USC quarterback Matt Barkley.
After a brilliant 2011 campaign that saw the Trojans quarterback throw for 3,528 yards, 39 touchdowns and only seven interceptions, most expected the 21-year-old to make a leap to the NFL. But Barkley was seemingly motivated to walk away with two forms of hardware in 2012: the BCS national championship and Heisman Trophy.
Hoping to pull a page from 2011 Heisman winner Robert Griffin III's playbook and steal the trophy are a bunch of outstanding young prospects.
However, every year there are guys who get unnecessary and unrealistic Heisman hype.
Who are those guys this season? Follow along for seven preseason Heisman favorites you won't hear mentioned come midseason.
(Note: All odds are via Bovada.lv)
Braxton Miller (QB, Ohio State)
1 of 72011 Stats: 138.4 passer rating, 1,159 passing yards, 715 rushing yards, 20 total touchdowns
Heisman Odds: 67/1
With offensive guru Urban Meyer now entrenched as the Buckeyes head coach and Miller coming off a breakout freshman season, the dual-threat quarterback should help vault Ohio State back into national prominence.
Let's just save the Heisman talk until next year.
Though the Buckeyes return a whopping nine offensive starters and Miller should have chemistry with most of his offensive teammates, the second-year quarterback is still an extremely raw thrower. Miller completed just 54.1 percent of his passes as a freshman and will need to improve on that rate to compete for a Heisman.
Ohio State is also ineligible to compete for bowl games or a Big Ten championship this season. Considering there hasn't been a Heisman winner to not play in a bowl game since Houston's Andre Ware in 1989, Miller would need a tremendous season to even get in the discussion.
At this point in his development, that's not likely.
Robert Woods (WR, USC)
2 of 72011 Stats: 111 receptions, 1,292 receiving yards, 15 total touchdowns
Heisman Odds: 55/1
There have been 20 Heisman Trophy presentations since the last wide receiver won the award. That was Michigan's Desmond Howard, in 1991.
Since then, there have been transcendent college receivers who have gone on to have even more outstanding NFL careers. None of those players have taken home the hardware, though.
For Woods to become the first receiver since Howard to take home the Heisman, he would need two things: one of the all-time greatest seasons for a receiver in NCAA history and quarterback Matt Barkley getting injured.
With Barkley the man throwing Woods the football and his status as a 3/1 favorite to bring home the trophy back to USC, the receiver is in an impossible scenario before the 2012 season even begins.
First-round NFL draft choice and Biletnikoff Award winner? Totally possible.
Striking the Heisman pose? Not so much.
Rex Burkhead (RB, Nebraska)
3 of 72011 Stats: 305 total touches, 1,534 total yards, 17 total touchdowns
Heisman Odds: 35/1
Nearly every year, the Heisman Trophy is awarded to an outstanding player who excels on a national championship favorite.
Burkhead is no slouch, but he's simply a very good player on a Nebraska team that could be an underdog in as many as four regular-season games. That can work for a transcendent talent who puts up gaudy numbers, like last season's winner, Robert Griffin III.
That cannot work for Burkhead. His 4.8 yards per carry is relatively pedestrian for an elite running back, and he's already well behind Wisconsin back Montee Ball on voters' radars.
For Burkhead to stay in Heisman contention long-term, he's going to need an unforeseen leap in both individual and team performance.
E.J. Manuel (QB, Florida State)
4 of 72011 Stats: 151.2 passer rating, 2,666 yards passing, 22 total touchdowns
Heisman Odds: 30/1
The senior quarterback finally seemed to put it all together last season for the Seminoles, staying consistently accurate at 65.3 percent and limiting himself to just eight interceptions.
With Florida State returning nine starters on both sides of the ball, including most of the skill-position players around Manuel, this season could be magical for the seventh-ranked Seminoles and their quarterback.
There's just one problem: The offensive line is still porous and injury prone.
Unless that problem was fixed during the offseason, it could mean disaster for the team and Manuel's Heisman hopes.
Despite being an abundantly talented dual-threat QB, Manuel was on the non-designed run way too often last season and took a ton of unnecessary hits. One of those shots against Oklahoma injured Manuel's shoulder, costing him a game-and-a-half of action and a likely win against Clemson.
If the offensive line keeps the star signal-caller off his back and gives him time in the pocket, Florida State could make a BCS bowl run.
But if history repeats itself, Manuel will be on the sideline and the Seminoles won't take the field anytime in January.
A.J. McCarron (QB, Alabama)
5 of 72011 Stats: 147.3 passer rating, 2,634 passing yards, 18 total touchdowns
Heisman Odds: 25/1
As backwards as this sounds, if McCarron and his teammates are living up to their potential, there is zero chance the Alabama quarterback stays in the Heisman race.
McCarron is a smart, accurate passer who knows how to pick his spots in the coverage, and he has the arm to stretch the ball down the field.
But even going back to his days as a quarterback at St. Paul's Episcopal School in Mobile, McCarron has never put up the gaudy numbers necessary to get noticed by Heisman voters.
In head coach Nick Saban's run-first, pro-style system, McCarron is the prototypical Crimson Tide quarterback. McCarron was satisfied to allow running back Trent Richardson to dominate last year, and he will likely do the same for Eddie Lacy in 2012.
The junior's place in Alabama's starting lineup gives the team the best shot to repeat as national champions, but being a Crimson Tide does not do the same for McCarron's Heisman hopes.
Marcus Lattimore (RB, South Carolina)
6 of 72011 Stats: 182 total touches, 1,000 total yards, 11 touchdowns
Heisman Odds: 18/1
It's undeniable that Lattimore is one of the most talented skill position players in the nation.
A powerful back with enough speed to break away from the secondary, Lattimore broke out as a freshman in 2010, accumulating over 1,600 yards and 19 touchdowns.
After continuing his dominance as a sophomore and emerging as a 2012 Heisman favorite, a torn ACL prematurely (and unfortunately) ended the star running back's season last year.
With Lattimore healthy and ready to return to his perch as the Gamecocks' workhorse, he's re-entered the Heisman discussion. You just have to wonder (as with all ACL tears in running backs) whether he'll come back the same player.
Steve Spurrier's ninth-ranked South Carolina team opens its schedule with five relatively easy opponents but hits a midseason gauntlet starting Oct. 6 against Georgia. If Lattimore is the same back he was pre-injury, we'll see it against those vaunted SEC opponents.
Unfortunately, I just wouldn't count on it.
Denard Robinson (QB, Michigan)
7 of 72011 Stats: 139.7 passer rating, 2,173 passing yards, 1,176 rushing yards, 36 total touchdowns
Heisman Odds: 15/2
Coming into the season with an eighth-ranked supporting cast and the opportunity for an opening-night statement game against the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide, the Wolverines' dynamic quarterback could strike an early lead in the Heisman chase.
Or, as he did last season, Robinson could fall flat on his face against elite competition and play himself out of the conversation on Sept. 1.
My money is on the latter.
In Michigan's three games against ranked opponents in 2011, Robinson had just one game even the biggest Wolverine supporter would call average—and that was against a very mediocre Nebraska defense.
When facing tough defenses against rival Michigan State and Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl, the dynamic quarterback went in the tank. Those two contests saw Robinson go 18-for-45 (40 percent) passing the ball, accounting for just 240 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions.
If Robinson had dominated those games on his feet, those passing numbers wouldn't look so bad. But his combined 55 yards on 31 carries turned the dual-threat quarterback into a no-threat liability.
And that's all before accounting for Robinson's rate of one interception per every 17.2 pass attempts last season.
With the difficulty of Michigan's schedule ratcheting up to include four ranked opponents and an improved Notre Dame squad, Robinson will have to make a massive leap to stay in the Heisman conversation.
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