NFL Hot Seat Watch: Gauging the Temperature for Every Head Coach so Far

Head coaches around the NFL get fired every year. For the most part, the firings are predictable, as the coaches have been on the hot seat for the season beforehand. This year there are quite a few coaches on the hot seat.

Every NFL team has its own situation to deal with when it comes to the head coaching staff, as well as how hot its coach's seat truly is. We'll explore the situations for each team around the NFL and see just where every head coach is sitting before the season.

Scale used to measure how hot the seat is:

32 degrees: 0 percent chance of firing during or after season

70 degrees: 25 percent chance of firing during or after season

100 degrees: 50 percent chance of firing during or after season

150 degrees: 75 percent chance of firing during or after season

212 degrees: 95 percent chance of firing during or after season

Side note: As a former civil engineering major in college, it just felt right to use these numbers. 32 degrees is when water freezes. 212 is when it boils. 70 degrees is what I keep my apartment at, so that seemed like the right number for comfortable. The other two just felt right as arbitrary values.

Arizona Cardinals

Ken Whisenhunt

Sixth year with team

Regular-season record with team: 40-40-0

2008 and 2009 NFC West champion

Postseason record with team: 4-2

2008 NFC champion

Ken Whisenhunt doesn't seem to be on the hot seat in Arizona despite not having the best record the past two years, going 5-11 in 2010 and 8-8 in 2011. The Cardinals have a good bit of talent on both sides of the ball but need work on the offensive line and have a huge question at quarterback.

This is especially true with Levi Brown going down and Kevin Kolb not being worth the money at this point. Whisenhunt will get criticized for the lack of a quarterback, but it would take an awful year for him to get canned.

Temperature: 100 degrees

Atlanta Falcons

Mike Smith

Fifth year with team

Regular-season record with team: 43-21

2010 NFC South champion

Postseason record with team: 0-3

Mike Smith has been the best regular-season head coach in franchise history. However, sometimes a change is needed. The Falcons felt that it was offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey's bad play-calling and defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder's conservative schemes that needed to be changed.

With a pair of new coordinators, the Falcons look primed to take the next step. The only way it seems Smith would lose his job is if the Falcons tank and end up with a top-10 pick—something that looks very improbable with him at the helm.

Temperature: 70 degrees

Baltimore Ravens

John Harbaugh

Fifth year with team

Regular-season record with team: 44-20

2011 AFC North champion

Postseason record with team: 5-4

Winning season after winning season and the ability to continue that winning into the playoffs is what makes his seat cooler than the other side of the pillow. Harbaugh has continually gotten the Ravens to show improvement on both sides of the ball.

The question is what will happen when his defensive stars leave and he is left holding the bag of the vaunted Ravens defense without Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. That's at least another year off, though, so expect Harbaugh to not have anything to worry about at this point.

Temperature: 32 degrees

Buffalo Bills

Chan Gailey

Third year with team

Regular-season record with team: 10-22

Postseason record with team: 0-0

Chan Gailey should be in a now-or-never mode. He can't win just 10 games over the next two years again when he has a team that is built to win 10 or more games this year. Chan needs to make sure his team is taking that next step, or he is guaranteed to be out of a job.

Should the Bills miss the playoffs, this could be really bad. Gailey needs to make sure that his running game is working; otherwise they will definitely miss the playoffs. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good quarterback but he's better when he doesn't have to win games with his arm.

Temperature: 100 degrees

Carolina Panthers

Ron Rivera

Second year with team

Regular-season record with team: 6-10

Postseason record with team: 0-0

Ron Rivera has the best young quarterback in the league at his disposal in Cam Newton and a defense that is developing into one of the better ones in the NFC South. It's not likely that the Panthers go to the playoffs, but they don't have to for Rivera to keep his job.

Owner Jerry Richardson understands that Rivera isn't going to bring the instant results some other coaches did. However, he's got at least this year, if not until 2014, to get the Panthers to the playoffs and eventually a Super Bowl.

Temperature: 70 degrees

Chicago Bears

Lovie Smith

Ninth year with team

Regular-season record with team: 71-57

2005, 2006 and 2010 NFC North champion

Postseason record with team: 3-3

2006 NFC champion

This one is hard to get a read on. Lovie Smith is one of the more entrenched coaches out there, but Phil Emery is a new general manager for the Bears. While Smith hasn't brought the same results as Mike Ditka, he has still provided Chicago with solid teams.

If Smith doesn't provide the results that Emery wants to see, which looks to be at least the playoffs, then expect him to get canned by the end of the season. However, it is all about the results that Smith can provide. His demise will be tied to his terrible offensive line should it come down to that.

Temperature: 100 degrees

Cincinnati Bengals

Marvin Lewis

10th year with team

Regular-season record with team: 69-74-1

2005 and 2009 AFC North champion

Postseason record with team: 0-3

The Bengals have done their best imitation of a cart on a roller coaster the past few years. They go 4-11-1 in 2008 and then win the division in 2009. They have another four-win season in 2010, and then they make the playoffs after a quick reload in 2011.

They have been so up and down under Lewis that it's hard to get a read on where he stands. However, he did recently sign an extension (h/t Associated Press via ESPN). This could be all that is needed to say that the Bengals believe in Marvin's message despite the lack of playoff results.

Temperature: 70 degrees

Cleveland Browns

Pat Shurmur

Second year with team

Regular-season record with team: 4-12

Postseason record with team: 0-0

If this wasn't the Browns, Shurmur would be pretty much safe. However, it's the Browns, so he has to make sure he shows some sort of improvement. It's nice to see that he can pick the team's exact weaknesses and fill them with talent in the drafting of Trent Richardson and Mitchell Schwartz.

Give Shurmur some time and he could very well turn the Browns from one of the worst teams in the NFL into a respectable franchise. He just needs to make sure that his quarterback manages the game and that he uses Richardson to grind other teams down, and he should keep his job.

Temperature:70 degrees

Dallas Cowboys

Jason Garrett

Third year with team

Regular-season record with team: 13-11

Postseason record with team: 0-0

Jason Garrett looked good in his first full season as the head coach. While he wasn't able to take the Cowboys to the playoffs, they definitely have the right guys there to make a run. However, if they don't make it to the second season this year, a complete rebuild could happen.

This is Jerry Jones' team, and ever since the late, great Al Davis passed away, it has shown the most poorly run dynamics of any team in the NFL. Jones is only setting his coaches up for failure until he brings in a legitimate general manager.

Temperature: 100 degrees

Denver Broncos

John Fox

Second year with team

Regular-season record with team: 8-8

2011 AFC West champion

Postseason record with team: 1-1

John Fox is one of the best coaches in the NFL. He always has a good defensive scheme and can get the most out of the guys he has on the field. Unfortunately, he just doesn't have enough talent to field a winning team this season despite having Peyton Manning on the roster.

The Broncos won't just magically turn into the late 2000s Colts team that won one Super Bowl and made it to another. They are lacking the defensive talent in the middle of the field to control games, and the lack of talent on the offensive line could end up hurting Manning more than helping him.

Temperature: 70 degrees

Detroit Lions

Jim Schwartz

Fourth year with team

Regular-season record with team: 18-30

Postseason record with team: 0-1

Jim Schwartz took the worst team of all time and somehow turned it into a playoff-caliber team after just two years at the helm. Every year, he has gotten the Lions to show improvement and turn in their best possible performance.

Just like any team, though, they will only go as far as their talent takes them. Schwartz needs to make sure his talent isn't getting caught doing things that could lead to suspensions, arrests and eventual cuts, as with Aaron Berry, or he will end up fighting for his job after this season.

Temperature: 70 degrees

Green Bay Packers

Mike McCarthy

Seventh year with team

Regular-season record with team: 63-33

2007 and 2011 NFC North champion

Postseason record with team: 5-3

Super Bowl XLV champion

Very few coaches are stone-cold safe this year. McCarthy is one of those gentlemen. He has kept the Packers in the hunt for the title every year and will continue to do so as long as Aaron Rodgers stays healthy and the defense can allow under 30 points per game.

It would take a complete and utter disaster for McCarthy to get let go by the Green Bay Packers. He has been way too valuable for the Packers as a leader since his arrival and is going to have the next Andy Reid- or Jeff Fisher-length tenure in the NFL.

Temperature: 32 degrees

Houston Texans

Gary Kubiak

Seventh year with team

Regular-season record with team: 47-49

2011 AFC South champion

Postseason record with team: 1-1

Gary Kubiak has built the Texans offense into a complete replica of the famed Broncos offense of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Wade Phillips has completely turned around the defense from one of the worst to arguably the best in the NFL.

As long as the Texans continue to improve and don't end up regressing out of the playoffs, Kubiak should be in line for an extension at season's end. However, if for whatever reason the Texans wind up at 7-9 or worse in their weak division, Kubiak could get fired.

Temperature: 70 degrees

Indianapolis Colts

Chuck Pagano

First year with team

Regular-season record with team: 0-0-0

Postseason record with team: 0-0

Chuck Pagano takes over from Jim Caldwell and the embarrassment that was the 2011 Indianapolis Colts. They weren't good on offense and were terrible on defense. However, they should improve quite a bit in 2012 with a legitimate NFL-caliber quarterback back in the fold.

Andrew Luck is the next Peyton Manning, and the Colts will want to give him at least three to four years with Pagano as his head coach before they decide if Pagano is the guy. Pagano's biggest influence should be seen in a defense that was 25th in total defense and 28th in scoring defense last year.

Temperature: 32 degrees

Jacksonville Jaguars

Mike Mularkey

First year with team

Regular-season record with team: 0-0-0

Postseason record with team: 0-0

For a man who was about to get fired from his offensive coordinator gig, Mike Mularkey has done well for himself by securing a promotion. This will be a tremendous rebuilding project though; the Jacksonville Jaguars need Blaine Gabbert to improve, or bringing in Mularkey will be a waste.

Gabbert has already shown that he has taken some strides and is more confident. If there is one thing Mularkey can do, it's help mold a young quarterback from putty into a solid player. Expect him to keep his job for at least two years.

Temperature: 70 degrees

Kansas City Chiefs

Romeo Crennel

Third year with team, first as full-time head coach

Regular-season record with team as head coach: 2-1

Postseason record with team: 0-0

Unlike your typical first-year coach, Crennel has been with his team over the past two years. He just isn't going to be given the same kind of leeway because of that. If his defense isn't able to turn into the top unit that it has the potential of being, he could end up following Todd Haley after one season.

The Chiefs offense, led by Matt Cassel, doesn't inspire anyone, and Branden Albert is scary to have in there as a left tackle. While it wouldn't shock to see Crennel get fired after 2012, odds are he has just as good of a shot at staying regardless of a good or bad season.

Temperature: 100 degrees

Miami Dolphins

Joe Philbin

First year with team

Regular-season record with team: 0-0-0

Postseason record with team: 0-0

Joe Philbin has all the makings of a great NFL coach. He has the ability to get his players to love him, but at the same time has a discipline to his coaching style. He will be able to get one of the lesser talented teams to play above its talent level in Miami.

In the end, the question won't be whether Philbin is the right guy for head coach, but rather if Jeff Ireland is the right guy for general manager. Ireland has been one of the worst general managers in the NFL during his tenure in Miami.

Temperature: 32 degrees

Minnesota Vikings

Leslie Frazier

Sixth year with team, second as full-time head coach

Regular-season record with team: 6-16

Postseason record with team: 0-0

Leslie Frazier is a bad head coach for a football team. It's got nothing to do with the lack of talent in Minnesota, but more that he is more reminiscent of a Raheem Morris than a Mike Tomlin.

Frazier is a talented coach and a top-tier defensive coordinator, but he should have never been given the reins to the Minnesota team that was reeling from a terrible experience with Brad Childress. The Vikings would be wise to just cut their losses and clean house to assemble an entirely new coaching staff.

Temperature: 150 degrees

New England Patriots

Bill Belichick

13th year with team

Regular-season record with team: 139-53

2001, 2003-07 and 2009-11 AFC East champion

Postseason record with team: 16-6

Super Bowl XXXVI, XXXVIII and XXXIX champion

2007 and 2011 AFC champion

He's the only coach for whom it would have been easier to list what his team hasn't won with him at the helm. Winning three Super Bowls and taking his team to two more is all anyone needs to know about why he isn't even close to the hot seat.

Temperature: 32 degrees

New Orleans Saints

Sean Payton (suspended)

Seventh year with team

Regular-season record with team: 62-34

2006, 2009 and 2011 NFC South champion

Postseason record with team: 5-3

Super Bowl XLIV champion

If I'm Tom Benson, I look at Bountygate and tell Sean Payton and his entire coaching staff to kick rocks—that I can win without the classless acts they committed. However, Benson doesn't think like me, as his goal is to just win the Super Bowl.

Payton has been rightfully suspended for the entire season by Roger Goodell, and it's mainly because he wouldn't listen to Goodell's multiple warnings that the bounties were illegal. When Payton comes back, it remains to be seen if he can resume as the true head of the team or not.

Temperature: 100 degrees

New York Giants

Tom Coughlin

Ninth year with team

Regular-season record with team: 74-54

2005, 2008 and 2011 NFC East champion

Postseason record with team: 8-3

Super Bowl XLII and XLVI champion

With two Super Bowl championships, and as the reigning holder of the title, it's hard to think that the New York Giants would even consider firing their leader. Coughlin deserves at least another two years to go after yet another title, and should he win another one, he'll have Belichick status.

Temperature: 32 degrees

New York Jets

Rex Ryan

Fourth year with team

Regular-season record with team: 28-20

Postseason record with team: 4-2

As fun as Rex Ryan and the circus act of the New York Jets have been to watch this year, it's time for both Ryan and general manager Mike Tannenbaum to be fired and a new pair to take the controls for the Jets. Maybe someone who can actually control his team like Tom Coughlin would be best.

Ryan has yet to understand that his coaching style just isn't conducive to winning a championship, and if he can't realize that he needs to stop allowing his inmates to run the asylum, he doesn't deserve to coach one of the more historic franchises in the NFL.

Temperature: 212 degrees

Oakland Raiders

Dennis Allen

First year with team

Regular-season record with team: 0-0-0

Postseason record with team: 0-0

Reggie McKenzie is at the helm for the Raiders as the general manager, and Dennis Allen was hand-picked as his first head coach. Allen is a long-awaited, defensive-oriented head coach who will transition the Raiders from the 4-3 to a scheme featuring multiple defensive fronts.

The offense has talent too though, and the Raiders could surprise in 2012. However, as long as Allen's Raiders win a few games in 2012, he will easily keep his job. McKenzie understands it's going to be a process to get the Raiders back to the Super Bowl team they were 10 years ago.

Temperature: 32 degrees

Philadelphia Eagles

Andy Reid

14th year with team

Regular-season record with team: 126-81-1

2001-04, 2006 and 2010 NFC East champion

Postseason record with team: 10-9

2004 NFC champion

Andy Reid always seems to have some sort of controversy as to whether he is going to be fired or not. Jeffrey Lurie is one of the more eccentric owners in the NFL. However, he wants to make sure one of the best coaches in the NFL stays the man in charge of his team.

On the flip side, if the Eagles regress after such a huge investment in the 2011 offseason and some additional minor tweaks in the 2012 offseason, it will be shocking to see Reid back on the sideline in 2013 for his 15th year with the team.

Temperature: 100 degrees

Pittsburgh Steelers

Mike Tomlin

Sixth year with team

Regular-season record with team: 55-25

2007, 2008 and 2010 AFC North champion

Postseason record with team: 5-3

Super Bowl XLIII champion

2010 AFC champion

Very rarely can a team transition from one coach who is legendary to another one just as good. The Steelers have done that over the past 44 years with just three coaches. For comparison, multiple teams have had three head coaches in the past five years alone.

Tomlin is just another key member of the Steelers tradition of getting quality over quantity at the head coaching spot. His .688 win percentage is actually better than Bill Cowher's .623 or Chuck Noll's .566. Winning a Super Bowl only helps his job security in Pittsburgh.

Temperature: 32 degrees

San Diego Chargers

Norv Turner

Sixth year with team

Regular-season record with team: 49-31

2007-09 AFC West champion

Postseason record with team: 3-3

Norv Turner is always on the hot seat. The man just never gets his due. However, he needs to do more than just lead his team to the playoffs and a second championship game loss. He needs to get it over the hump and into the Super Bowl.

However, if he doesn't at least get the Chargers to a 10-6 record and the division title, he will be collecting a check at the unemployment office instead of in San Diego. He would be wise to do whatever it takes to keep his job.

Temperature: 150 degrees

San Francisco 49ers

Jim Harbaugh

Second year with team

Regular-season record with team: 13-3

2011 NFC West champion

Postseason record with team: 1-1

Outside of a first-year coach who should have more than one year to prove his worth, the coach leading a team to its best season in the past 10 years should be guaranteed one more season. Harbaugh is the best coach in the NFC West, and he has only been there one year.

If anything, the biggest thing Harbaugh gives the 49ers is someone to allow Alex Smith to have an offensive coordinator for consecutive seasons for the first time in his career. Smith should have a career year, and the 49ers should have just a slight decline to around 10-6, which is not even close to fireable.

Temperature: 32 degrees

Seattle Seahawks

Pete Carroll

Third year with team

Regular-season record with team: 14-18

2010 NFC West champion

Postseason record with team: 1-1

Paul Allen has to wonder why Pete Carroll can't even get his team to a .500 record. Carroll has led his team to two straight 7-9 seasons after having one of the best runs in college football history at the University of Southern California.

Don't expect Carroll to get fired if the team can somehow make it over .500. However, if the Seahawks still toil under the 50-50 mark, there's well over a 50-50 chance that Carroll will find himself as an assistant to Lane Kiffin and not an NFL coach anymore.

Temperature: 100 degrees

St. Louis Rams

Jeff Fisher

First year with team

Regular-season record with team: 0-0-0

Postseason record with team: 0-0

First-year head coaches essentially get a free pass. A head coach who is in the first year with your team but has 17 years of experience, multiple division titles and a Super Bowl appearance deserves at least two years' worth of free passes.

Fisher's success will be defined by how he can mold Sam Bradford and the offense into one of the top units in the NFL. Should he be able to bring back an offense that could get back into the top 10 for both total and scoring offense, the Rams will be a true competitor for the NFC West title.

Temperature: 32 degrees

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Greg Schiano

First year with team

Regular-season record with team: 0-0-0

Postseason record with team: 0-0

Greg Schiano will try to do what Bobby Petrino couldn't: discipline grown NFL players and turn a group of players who quit on their old coach into a winning team. Rome wasn't built in a day, and Tampa Bay won't be either.

Luckily for Schiano, the Glazers knew that the Buccaneers were going to be a mess that he would have to clean up, so they will give him some time. If Raheem Morris is any indication of how much, Schiano will have three years to turn the Bucs from an undisciplined but talented team into a division champion.

Temperature: 32 degrees

Tennessee Titans

Mike Munchak

19th year with team, second as head coach

Regular-season record with team as head coach: 9-7

Postseason record with team: 0-0

Mike Munchak was a rookie head coach in 2011 and still got his team to a winning record with essentially the same exact talent it had the previous year. With more talent in 2012, especially at wide receiver, the Titans offense should be much better. 

Munchak should be given a decent shot to keep his job and looks relatively safe, as most second-year coaches don't get replaced unless they go 1-15 or 0-16. It would take a lot of injuries and a complete meltdown for the Titans to have that happen, though.

Temperature: 70 degrees

Washington Redskins

Mike Shanahan

Third year with team

Regular-season record with team: 11-21

Postseason record with team: 0-0

Mike Shanahan has brought a complete culture shock to the Redskins. Unfortunately, that's all he has brought, as they haven't had a legitimate starting quarterback or running back until this year.

They do have a solid offensive line, and their defense has potential. However, the record itself has to get above .500 for Shanahan to go from hot seat to safe.

Right now, he is in the third year of what's looking to be a failed reclamation project of the Redskins. He will leave with Robert Griffin III as the best reminder of his time there.

Temperature: 150 degrees

Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist and Trends and Traffic Writer for Bleacher Report. As a Featured Columnist, he covers the Atlanta Falcons, NFL and NFL draft. He is also the Falcons analyst at Drafttek, runs the NFL draft website ScarDraft.com and hosts Kvetching Draftniks Radio.

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