London Olympics 2012: Full Preview, Analysis and Predictions for Spain vs Russia

We’re now into the basketball semifinals and Russia will face off against Spain for the second time in the 2012 London Olympics, this time with a gold medal-game slot on the line. The last time these two played, Russia overcame a big fourth-quarter deficit to rally back and steal the game from Spain.

Here’s a look at what you can probably expect on Friday.

Time, TV, Location, Online

Friday, 4 pm ET, NBC Sports Network, London (You can watch it here.)

Record of Each Team

Spain: 4-2
Russia: 5-1

Rosters

Spain: Jose Calderon, Juan Carlos Navarro, Rudy Fernandez, Pau Gasol, Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Felipe Reyes, Sergio Llull, San Emeterio Fernando, Victor Claver, Sergio Rodriguez, Victor Sada
 

Russia: Anton Ponkrashov, Alexey Shved, Victor Khryapa, Andrei Kirilenko, Timofey Mozgov, Vitally Fridzon, Sergey Monya, Semen Antonov, Sasha Kaun, Sergey Karasev, Evgeny Voronov, Dmitry Khvostov

Betting Line

Spain (-5.5) over Russia

Key Storyline to Watch For: Which Alexey Shved will we see?

During Russia’s win against Spain a few days ago, Alexey Shved played just seven minutes after being replaced by Anton Ponkrashov for full-time point guard duties. Russian coach David Blatt had this to say via Sporting News about Shved:

"

Do you know the story of Icarus? He put wax on his wings and began to fly and everyone believed he was superhuman. Suddenly the sun shone brightly on those wings and they melted and he fell. Now, Alexey, to his credit, has had an amazing Olympic Games and really has come out in a big way, as he did last summer for the Russian national team in our medal-winning performance. We were 10-1 and he was one of our leading players. I think he was just too good too fast for too long, and you know, his day came that he wasn’t that good and I recognized it.

"

For most of the past two years, Shved has been trending upward. He’s been making the right plays and adding so much to his game on a consistent basis. He seems to immediately soak in whatever learning experience he’s just had and builds on it right away.

However, there are times in which Shved becomes unraveled and checks out mentally. It’s good that Blatt caught this early in the game against Spain. Not only did catching it early help prevent it from ruining their chances to win the game, but it also nipped it in the bud to stop Shved from carrying this into the next game.

Shved definitely can find himself getting too close to the sun. He is known to opt for the spectacular when it’s not necessary. Sometimes it works and sometimes it gets him into that Kobe Bryant mode of trying to one-up his own difficulty. The problem is, that while he’s very good, he’s not Kobe Bryant.

His improbable pull-up jumper off the pick-and-roll once the defender has rotated to contest the shot can be a bad idea. The fancy, low bounce pass to Mozgov or Kaun when they need the ball high can leave you scratching your head.

Russia survived a subpar Shved game to beat Spain in pool play, and they actually endured a poor shooting performance by him (2-for-12 from the field, 0-for-5 from three-point range, and 0-for-4 from the free-throw line) to oust Lithuania from the quarterfinals. But it seems unlikely they could continue to win while one of their best players sits the bench or sulks on the floor.

Maybe Blatt can recognize it early and pray that Ponkrashov is capable of carrying the team once again, but to beat Spain a second time in the same week is going to take most of their top guys being on their game.

Key Matchup: Andrei Kirilenko vs. Pau Gasol

In their earlier matchup, Kirilenko had a horrible offensive game (2-for-8 from the field for eight points) while Pau had another solid performance with 20 points on 8-for-13 shooting. Kirilenko’s only two baskets came on tip-ins—one in the third quarter and one in the fourth.

This Spanish team should be able to wear Kirilenko down because he has to constantly guard a good big man (both of the Gasols or Ibaka) or he has to switch out to defend Navarro or Rudy Fernandez and chase them around.

The tough thing for getting Kirilenko going offensively is he’s best when he’s scoring around the basket. He’s so good at slithering his way through the big men, only to receive a quick pass or go up for an annoying tip-in. Against Spain, you’re trying to do that against one or both of the Gasols and sometimes there’s a Serge Ibaka roaming around too.

Where Kirilenko is going to have to make his impact is moving the ball and playing help defense. Russia could match him up on Pau at times to be a pest, but he’s really best utilized as a guy helping down to strip the ball and play the passing lanes. He’s extremely good at being coy and making opponents think a pass is a good idea.

With Kirilenko looking to swarm post players, it’s important for Pau to make quick, strong moves when he gets the ball in the post. He was an early option for Spain by scoring 11 of his 20 points in the first quarter, matching Russia’s total as a team. We saw him go up quickly, before the help defense could get there to harass him.

Even with someone as big as Mozgov, nobody on Russia is really athletic enough while possessing the size to consistently contest Pau when he has the ball in the post. So as long as he works quickly when he gets the ball and turns away from where the help is coming, there’s no reason to think Pau can’t have another big game.

The Game Will Be Close If: Both Teams Make Their Way to the Arena

I don’t think we really need to put lipstick on this one. There are far more reasons this game will be tightly contested than chances there will be a blowout. Spain is still the second best team (in theory) in the world for a reason. They have the two best big men in the tournament, Serge Ibaka backing those guys up and perimeter scorers capable of going nuts (not the Batum way).

Russia has played the best basketball in this tournament by anybody not named Team USA. They’ve been the second-best passing team in the Olympics. They’re making roughly 50 percent of their shots in the six games. They’ve blocked the most shots. They get to the free-throw line a healthy amount.

When these teams played a few days ago, Russia came back from nine points down in the final 4:41 of the game to win the game. After Timofey Mozgov made the go-ahead dunk with 18 seconds left, Pau Gasol got fouled with five seconds to go and only made one of his two free throws. Fridzon ended up icing the game on free throws.

It shouldn’t shock anybody if we get a similar result on Friday.

Player Russia Has to Contain: Juan Carlos Navarro

Navarro has not been good in the Olympics Games. He sat put two games because of his plantar fasciitis injury, and after having a strong opening game against China, La Bomba has looked mediocre at best.

When Navarro is on his game, he’s kind of annoying to try to defend. He uses screens extremely effectively, and is fantastic at creating space for his patented floater or his pull-up jumper. He’s also a pretty deadeye three-point shooter that can attack with waves of points in a short amount of time.

Against Russia, he struggled a lot with his shot. He came off the bench for nine points on just 3-for-11 shooting in 23 minutes. I’d love to show you a bunch of videos of Russia playing phenomenal defense to take him out of his game, but he simply just missed a lot of open shots he’d normally make.

He misfired on back-to-back floaters in transition in one possession. He missed a couple of open three-pointers from the left side in the second half. He got into the lane for another missed floater. Russia did a good job of contesting him on a couple attempts, but JCN took himself out of the game.

If Russia can go big and slide Kirilenko to a wing position without losing too much firepower offensively, I’d expect to see him taking a few shots at stifling Navarro. Otherwise, guys Ponkrashov and Khryapa will have to shadow him and try to run out on his jumpers.

X-Factor: Timofey Mozgov

Mozgov had a big game in his showdown against the Gasol brothers with 12 points and nine rebounds off the bench. He filled in nicely for Sasha Kaun who attempted to set the center position back even further than Ryan Hollins could ever dream of doing. While Pau had a good game and Marc rebounded well, Mozgov decided to be a presence for Russia and it paid off.

Russia doesn’t need him to be a back-to-the-basket kind of big man. They just need him to be mobile and active on both ends. Defensively, if he can move his feet and stay straight up when challenging shots inside, then that’s all Russia could really ask of him. Offensively, they just need him to be a competent roll man moving without the ball.

This means catching passes to him cleanly and going up with them before the defense can clamp down and remind him that he’s still Timofey Mozgov.

We saw this in a flurry against Lithuania in the quarterfinals. Shved got a good rhythm for a small stretch getting Mozgov the ball and making him a weapon the defense had to pay attention to.

If Russia can keep Spain honest inside by viewing Mozgov as a threat on the pick-and-roll, it should leave perimeter players more room to get off good shots and maybe even allow Kirilenko to sneak into the paint from the weak side for a couple of easy scores.

It Will Be a Team Russia Blowout If: Spain Can’t Get Anything Going Inside

This is a two-pronged theory with Spain. If they get the Gasols and Ibaka going inside then they’ll: 1) be able to get easy scores at the basket and possibly turn them into three-point plays; and 2) it should open up everything for their perimeter guys as opposing defenses swarm the post.

You simply can’t give the Gasols room to operate once they receive the ball. They’re far too nimble and skilled to not do something great if given space to make plays. They both have such great touch that you have to finish through on fouls, can’t give them space to take jumpers, and have to swarm them and hope the guy they move the ball to doesn’t make his shot.

As you can see here, Marc is fully capable of being an offensive weapon just like Pau is. He’s not afraid to make the extra pass and doesn’t hesitate when he does it either. If a teammate is open, he’ll find the guy. There is no indecision with Marc.

This means Sasha Kaun and Timofey Mozgov have to give quality minutes, at least defensively. It’s not so important that these guys score, but they can’t turn the ball over and allow Pau and Ibaka to run up the floor in transition.

Prediction: Spain Steals One Back

Part of me thinks this could be the statement game Russia will finally make to prove they’re in the conversation for the elite clubs that Team USA has to worry about from now on. They have great depth, an abundance of athleticism and plenty of shooting to go around it.

They pass the ball around the half court like they’re reviewing a play in practice without the defense on the floor. When they can get Pronkrashov, Shved, Khryapa and Kirilenko flying around the court, they’re nearly impossible to beat. When Mozgov can give them competent play for any stretch, they look like the second best team in the world.

But even with how good Russia is and how not elite Spain has looked in their time in London, it’s hard for me to go against the Spanish powerhouse in this game. I expect Kirilenko to have a fantastic game, but I don’t think it will be enough to neutralize the two Gasols. If Spain is smart (and they often are), they’ll hammer the ball down low to the two brothers and force Russia to use up their fouls.

This should thin the herd in the frontcourt enough to get Spain a few more easy buckets than they did last time. If they can couple that with Navarro or Rudy or even Sergio Llull getting a perimeter game going, they just become nearly possible for mere mortal teams to beat.

I think we’ll see another incredibly close contest between these two teams, but I think Spain will find a way to pull out the narrow victory.