International Basketball: Which of These Players Will End Up in the Hall?

Today, the men's semifinal round of the Olympic basketball tournament is showcasing the talent the rest of the world has to offer. Players such as Tony Parker are clearly among the world's elite, as well as middle-tier players like Luis Scola and Leandro Barbosa.  

The Olympics got me wondering, "which of these guys will end up in the Hall of Fame?"   This article assesses the Hall of Fame chances of 15 current and recently retired NBA players.

This list obviously takes into account NBA performance, but also international performance, contribution to the game and humanitarianism.

Yes, you may notice that this list seems to give a little more weight to international performance than you'd probably expect.  That's because I think that's the direction the game, and the Hall, are headed.

Leandro Barbosa, Brazil

Position: Guard

Leandro Barbosa has been the anchor of the Brazilian national team for a number of years, during which the Brazilians won two FIBA Americas championships, almost upset the United States in the 2010 Worlds and made the knockout round of this year's Olympics.

However, he hasn't been a factor at all in the NBA.  Yes, he earned a Sixth Man of the Year Award, but that award doesn't correlate with the Hall of Fame.   He doesn't have a ring or any other hardware.  He's started just 109 games in 11 NBA seasons and only has a career scoring average of 12.5 points a game.

HOF Chances: 10 percent (not happening)

Luol Deng, Great Britain

Position: Small forward

The South Sudanese-born Luol Deng made his first All-Star team and first All-Defensive team last season.

Deng has yet to make an All-NBA team, has a career scoring average of 16 points a game and has yet to notch a season with a player-efficiency rating of 20 or better.

Deng hasn't played internationally at the club level, though he did suit up for Britain in this year's Olympics.  Despite him having one of the 10 best individual performances of pool play, Great Britain did not make the knockout stage.

When looking at similarity scores, most of the people Deng is similar to aren't in the Hall of Fame.

However, Deng is only 27 and likely has about eight NBA seasons ahead of him.  If he wins a couple of rings and makes some All-Star or All-NBA selections, we could be having a more serious talk about him being in the Hall of Fame.

HOF Chances: 25 percent (work to be done)   

Vlade Divac, Serbia

Position: Center

Remember Vlade Divac?  The former Yugoslavian player who retired from the NBA in 2005 now is head of the Serbian Olympic Committee and is eligible for Hall of Fame consideration.

To me it boils down to this: If you put Arvydas Sabonis in, you probably should put Divac in too.  True, Sabonis was a six-time European Player of the Year nominee. 

But both Sabonis and Divac have made the 50 Greatest Euroleague players and 50 Greatest FIBA players.  Divac does have a European Player of the Year award, in addition to World Championship and Eurobasket golds.

Also, to be frank, Sabonis stunk in the NBA, whereas Divac (in 16 seasons) was much better.  He is one of six big men with 13,000 points, 9,000 rebounds, 3,000 assists and 1,500 blocks; the other five are Hall of Famers already or are pretty much guaranteed to be.

Divac was a one-time All-Star and is in the top 50 among NBA players in career rebounds and career defensive win shares, and the top 25 in career blocks.

Divac is also one of two foreign-born and foreign-trained players (Dirk Nowitzki is the other) who have played at least 1,000 NBA games.

HOF Chances: 60 percent (more likely than not)

Marc Gasol, Spain

Position: Center

The younger Gasol has been the starting center for the Memphis Grizzlies for the last four seasons.  He was an All-Star last season and has been one of the better rebounders, shot-blockers and defenders in the league while shooting well north of 50 percent from the field.

Prior to being in the NBA, Gasol played in Spain for a few years, winning the Spanish League MVP in his final season.  He's played on Spain's national team in its victories at the 2006 World Championship and 2009 and 2011 Eurobaskets, as well as their silvers at the 2008 Olympics and their likely medal at these Olympics. 

As of yet, he hasn't done enough to be in the Hall of Fame.  But, as with Deng, he's only 27, with the potential to garner more All-Star appearances, medals and higher positions on career stat lists.

HOF Chances: 20 percent (work to be done)  

Pau Gasol, Spain

Position: Forward-Center

The better-known Gasol is the Spanish player with the best shot at the Hall of Fame.  He is a four-time All-Star and has made two All-NBA third teams and one all-NBA second team.  He won NBA championships with the Lakers in 2009 and 2010, and was the 2002 Rookie of the Year.

Pau Gasol is 10th among active players in rebounds per game and is in the top-50 career in total blocks, player efficiency rating and win shares per 48 minutes.  The five most similar players to him are all Hall of Famers.

In terms of international play, Gasol was MVP of Spain's winning 2006 World Championship and 2009 Eurobasket squads, and has played on five Eurobasket and three Olympic squads.  He has also received a number of European Player of the Year awards.

HOF Chances: 75 percent (probably) 

Manu Ginobili, Argentina

Position: Shooting Guard

The balding Argentinean has a lot of hardware. He has three NBA championships, two All-Star appearances and two All-NBA third team selections. He and American Bill Bradley (a Hall of Famer) are the only two people in history to win an NBA championship, a Euroleague title,and a gold medal.

Ginobili has played on three Argentinean Olympic basketball teams, two that have won Olympic medals and one that has a decent shot at winning one.  He played in two World Championships, both times making the all-tournament team. 

He played in Europe just long enough to win two Italian League MVPs, an Italian League title, a Euroleague title and make the 50 Greatest Euroleague contributors.

The one thing that might hinder Ginobili is if people think the Spurs' dynasty is only worth three Hall of Famers, or if they just look at his NBA career without considering his performance on the Argentine national team and in Europe.

HOF Chances: 65 percent (probably)

Andrei Kirilenko, Russia

Position: Forward

The Soviet-born Andrei Kirilenko played 10 seasons with the Utah Jazz from 2001-11, making one All-Star appearance and three All-Defensive appearances.  He is sixth among active players in blocks per game and has 31.2 career defensive win shares.  He suits up for the Timberwolves this fall.

On the European side of things, Kirilenko was the MVP of Russia's 2007 Eurobasket-winning team and played in four more Eurobaskets and three Olympics.  When he played in Russia during the lockout, he was the 2012 Euroleague MVP, the Finals MVP and the Defensive Player of the Year of Russia's VTB United League.

Though dominant in Russia, AK47 still has a little more to do on his NBA game.  But, at only 31, he could rack up a couple more All-Defensive selections, or go back to Russia and win some more hardware there.

HOF Chances: 35 percent (not there yet)

Dikembe Mutombo, Congo DRC

Position: Center

Though Dikembe Mutombo is a naturalized U.S. citizen and never took Zaire or Congo DRC to the Olympics or the Worlds, he is from Kinshasa, where he has recently been buying gold and building hospitals.

The 7'2" Mutombo is helped by an interesting anomaly in that every center who has made the All-NBA first or second Team has eventually made it into the Hall of Fame.  Mutombo made the All-NBA second team in 2001, and also made two All-NBA third teams.

Mutombo has played in eight All-Star games and won four Defensive Player of the Year awards.  He is second all time in career blocks, 10th in offensive and defensive career rebounds, 19th in total rebounds  and 43rd in total win shares.  He is also the only player to win multiple J. Walter Kennedy Citizenship  awards.

Until recently, Mutombo's lack of a strong offensive game (career 9.8 PPG; never led his teams in scoring over the course of the season) would have hurt him.  But since the loose cannon known as Dennis Rodman is now in the Hall, the consummate humanitarian known as Dikembe Mutombo should be as well.

HOF Chances: 50 percent (good sporting chance)

Steve Nash, Canada

Position: Point guard

Steve Nash really hasn't done much internationally. The Canadian team for which he's now GM hasn't won either an Olympic medal or a FIBA Americas Championship with him as a player.  He wasn't big in the Euroleague either.

Good thing the point guard from Vancouver has two NBA MVPs. Every former NBA MVP has eventually made it into the Hall.  He has seven All-NBA selections (including three straight All-NBA first-team selections) and eight All-Star appearances.  In 2007, he won the J. Walter Kennedy Citizenship Award.

Nash is fifth all time in career assists (leading the league in that stat in six of the last eight seasons), eighth in career three-point percentage, 11th in true shooting percentage, 16th in offensive win shares and 19th in MVP shares.  In terms of similarity scores, most of the people similar to him are in the Hall of Fame. 

HOF Chances: 100 percent

Juan Carlos Navarro, Spain

Position: Shooting guard

Juan Carlos Navarro played a single NBA season, alongside Pau Gasol in Memphis.  He averaged 10.9 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists.  After being selected to the All-Rookie first team, Navarro gave up on the NBA and went back to Spain.

Navarro has played 14 seasons with FC Barcelona.  During that time, he has won seven ACB titles, a Spanish league MVP and three Spanish Supercup MVPs.  He also won a Euroleague MVP and made the All-Euroleague first team five times in the last seven years.

There's an argument to be made that Navarro has done more in the Euroleague since 2000 than anyone else, at least in terms of winning league titles and making All-Euroleague.

Navarro has been on Spain's national side in their last 13 major tournaments. He is now the captain of a Spanish national team during its most successful period in history: four Olympics, a victory in the 2006 World and five top-three finishes in the Eurobasket.  He was the 2011 Eurobasket MVP.

This will come down to how much the Hall values success in the Euroleague.  If they judge the better players of the Euroleague All-Decade Team to be Hall-worthy, Navarro will be in.  If not, he will be out.

HOF Chances: 50 percent (good sporting chance)

Dirk Nowitzki, Germany

Position: Power forward

Dirk Nowitzki has been a fixture on the German national team for several of its major tournaments, including placing third in the 2002 Worlds and making the 2008 Olympics.  He was both the MVP of the 2002 Worlds and the 2005 Eurobasket.

At the European level, Nowitzki played four seasons in the Bundesliga, being named German basketball player of the year at only 18.  He has six Euroscar Awards under his belt.

And, of course, Nowitzki has had a distinguished career with the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA.  He has played in the last 11 All-Star Games and made the All-NBA first or second Team in nine of 10 years between 2002 and 2011.

He won a title and a Finals MVP in 2011.  He is 19th all time in points, 22nd all time in scoring average, 18th all time in defensive rebounds, 13th all time in free throw percentage, 15th all time in player efficiency rating and 13th all time in win shares.

Like Steve Nash, Nowitzki has won an NBA MVP, which essentially makes him a Hall of Fame lock.

HOF Chances: 100 percent

Tony Parker, France

Position: Point guard

France's Tony Parker has been one of the top point guards in the NBA for the last decade.  He has played in four All-Star Games and made last year's All-NBA second team.  He has won three NBA titles and a Finals MVP. 

Parker has played for France in the last six Eurobaskets, as well as this year's Olympics.  He has won a Euroscar Award and is the last basketball player to win the French equivalent of the ESPY.

HOF Chances: 85 percent (pretty likely)

Luis Scola, Argentina

Position: Power forward

If you look only at Luis Scola's NBA career, no way he's getting in.  In five seasons with the Rockets, he's averaged a good-but-not-great 15 points and eight rebounds while shooting 51 percent from the field.  Apart from an All-Rookie selection, he has no hardware.  The person he most closely correlates to is unheralded 1970s journeyman Trooper Washington.

If you look more at Scola's body of international work, he has a shot.  He comes to play in pretty much any international tournament that's out there. He's been the MVP of the last three FIBA Americas Championships and made the 2010 Worlds All-Tournament Team.

Teams that Scola's has been on have won an Olympic gold medal and two FIBA Americas championships. He's played in 11 of Argentina's last 12 major tournaments.

Scola's also big in Spain, where he played for nine years prior to being in the NBA, winning three Supercups with the club Saski Baskonia.  He also won two Spanish League MVPs and made two All-Euroleague first teams (the only other non-American player with multiple Spanish league MVPs is Sabonis, who as noted earlier, is already in the Hall). 

Scola's strong career overseas somewhat makes up for his lackluster NBA career.

HOF Chances: 35 percent (could happen)

Peja Stojakovic, Serbia

Position: Small forward

Born in Yugoslavia, Peja Stojakovic played 13 seasons in the NBA.  He made three straight All-Star appearances from 2002-2004.  In 2004, he was second in the NBA in scoring and made the All-NBA second team.  Following that, he bounced around a number of teams before winning an NBA championship with the Mavericks in 2011 and subsequently retiring.

His NBA stats don't quite put him in the Hall of Fame conversion, but he's in it once you consider his Euro stats.  In 1998, he was MVP of the Greek League and led the Euroleague in scoring. 

He was MVP of the 2001 Eurobasket, winning the European Player of the Year.  The next year, he and Kings teammate Vlade Divac led Yugoslavia to the 2002 World Championship, where he made the All-Tournament team.

HOF Chances: 50 percent (good sporting chance)

Yao Ming, China

The Chinese behemoth, who played in the NBA for eight injury-plagued seasons, is the final person to be examined in this article.  Yao was a career 20-and-10 man, is in the top 40 all time in field goal percentage and is in the top 25 in player efficiency rating.

Yao was selected to eight All-Star Games and made five All-NBA teams; including two All-NBA second teams.  Again, the fact that he made the All-NBA second team at center would suggest enshrinement. But to be fair, for most of the NBA’s history, there has been a stronger crop of centers than those Yao faced.

In international competition, Yao played in three Olympics, including the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, where he was second in the tournament in scoring despite playing hurt.   He also led the 2006 Worlds in scoring and made the 2002 Worlds All-Tournament

Regardless of whether Yao did enough on the court to deserve it, I expect that he will be voted in once he allows himself to be eligible due to the role he played in growing the game in the Far East (after all, the idea of nominating him as a contributor was floated within months of his retirement).  

HOF Chances: 85 percent (he's in whether he deserves it or not)

Summary

Four centers, five guards and six forwards were examined.

Of the nine European players, four Americas players, one African player and one Asian player examined, at least six are probably going to get into the Hall and four more have roughly an even shot of making it in or not.     

Guaranteed in: Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki

Probably: Pau Gasol, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Yao Ming

Could Go Either Way: Vlade Divac, Dikembe Mutombo, Juan Carlos Navarro, Peja Stojakovic

Probably Not: Andrei Kirilenko, Luis Scola

Definitely Not: Leandro Barbosa

Too Soon To Tell: Luol Deng, Marc Gasol