Penn State Scandal: Bill O'Brien Is Set Up to Fail as Head Coach

Bill O'Brien knew it was going to be bad when he signed on to be the next head coach at Penn State following Joe Paterno's dismissal last January. But how could he—or anyone else—have expected it to be this bad?

In the aftermath of a sexual abuse scandal that rocked this program to its core, O'Brien is about to embark on an impossible task. He has to create something out of nothing. He has to coach a football team very few people want to remember exists. He has the hardest job in college football, and he hasn't yet coached a single game.

Here is what O'Brien is currently looking at: A roster that is anything but solidified, given the fact that players are permitted to transfer without sacrificing a year of eligibility. A four-year postseason ban. A $60 million fine. Ten fewer initial scholarships every year for the next four years.

Even without all those sanctions, who would want to play for Penn State? Who would want to play for a program so mired in controversy that there's no foreseeable end? Who would want to align himself with a program that has engaged in such unforgivable behavior over the last several decades?

And now, these sanctions make Penn State an even less desirable destination. For the next several years, recruits have virtually no chance of playing in a bowl game, never mind winning a national title. They'd be playing for nothing.

O'Brien doesn't have a lot of scholarships to offer over the next four years, but in the end, it might not even matter. The kinds of players Penn State is used to reeling in—five-star recruits, bona fide future legends—are no longer going to put the Nittany Lions at the top of their lists.

Those players will instead opt for schools like Ohio State or Michigan or even Wisconsin, schools that will give them the opportunity to play for something before their college days are over.

O'Brien doesn't know who's going to be on his team for the next four years. That's fine; he doesn't have time to worry about that now. He has to worry about who's going to be on his team tomorrow. Star players who committed to Penn State are no longer obligated to stay. If anyone else wants them, they are free to go.

Silas Redd, Penn State's most prized commodity, has had the rumor mill churning for days as he deliberates between staying or, per ESPN.com,  jumping ship to USC, which is entering its first year of bowl eligibility since enduring its own sanctions.

Even players who aren't stars and may not have anywhere else to go can defect from the football team without losing their scholarships.

The players deserve that freedom. They didn't do anything to deserve this; they didn't know any of this was going to happen when they committed themselves to Penn State.

But O'Brien didn't know, either, and now, he's stuck. The school tried to lessen the burden a bit by adding a clause into his contract that would add more years to his deal if the school was sanctioned, according to the Boston Herald. Now, he gets to stay at Penn State until 2020. But that's little consolation.

O'Brien's a noble guy; he'll put on his game face and deal with all the implications of having his dream job ruined by Paterno's and Jerry Sandusky's mistakes. He may be stuck in State College doing the impossible job, but what other choice does he have?

So he'll try to make this seem like anything but the disaster it is. This week, he told ESPN.com's Mark Schlabach:

"

What's changed? OK, I understand some things have changed and guys want to compete for championships. But who's to say you can't go out there every single year and compete for the division in the Big Ten? Who's going to tell me we weren't the champions of the Big Ten [Leaders Division]? No one will.

"

Except something big has changed. Being the unofficial champions isn't going to be enough for some of—most of—these players. They committed to a high-profile college football program because they wanted to play in bowl games and compete for the highest honors. Now, they won't get to do that.

O'Brien can preach all he wants in order to convince these kids to stick around, but for some of them, what he says won't matter. Some of them didn't sign up for this kind of controversy, and no matter how much they loved Penn State one or two or three years ago, everything has changed. Nothing O'Brien says will change their minds.

But at least he's trying. That's all he can do. 

It's unclear what the expectations for the new head coach are going to be. Will he be expected to win? Will he be expected to simply grit his teeth and bear it over the next four years, till some of the shame sinking this program has dissipated?

No matter what he's expected to do, O'Brien will probably fail. He's not going to revive this program; he's not going to win anything, at least for four years; he's not going to be able to recruit the same high-caliber players as the other big-name programs in the country.

If he can simply keep this program afloat over the next four years, that has to be enough.