Kevin Gausman vs. Mark Appel: Which Blown Signing Crushes Drafting Team Most?

Major League Baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement ushered in multiple changes to the draft and subsequent signing period this year, most notably that players have until 5 p.m. ET on July 13—rather than the mid-August deadline of previous years—to sign with their respective teams.

While most players signed within the two weeks following the draft, there are two high-profile picks that remain unsigned: Kevin Gausman (Orioles) and Mark Appel (Pirates).

Gausman, a Louisiana State right-handed pitcher selected by the Orioles fourth overall, has been offering mixed signals regarding his desire to sign or return to school.

On Monday, the New Orleans Times-Picayune quoted Gausman:

"

This is turning out to be a tough decision, but as of now my heart is still with LSU. There are still things for me to accomplish as a Tiger. I still want to play in and win the College World Series, and with a lot of guys coming back next year, I believe we can do it.

"

However, as Steve Melewski of MASNSports.com noted earlier Wednesday, they have since tried to distance themselves from the report. According to a source within the organization, Melewski reported that the Orioles actually made Gausman a new offer on Tuesday, and that they “still feel pretty confident” that both parties will agree on a deal.

As part of the CBA, the recommended slot value for the No. 4 pick is $4.2 million.

If Gausman opts to return to LSU for his junior season—he was a draft-eligible sophomore—then the Orioles will be compensated with the No. 5 overall pick in the 2013 First-Year Player draft.

After sliding to No. 8 overall due to his presumed bonus demands as a Scott Boras client—reportedly turning down a $6 million bonus from the Astros—it appears that Mark Appel and the Pittsburgh Pirates are anything but close to reaching an agreement.

The recommended slot value for the No. 8 draft pick this season is $2.9 million, which is nowhere close to the $6 million that Appel and Boras declined when he appeared to be the inevitable No. 1 overall selection.

The Pirates have $3.84 million left to spend on Appel, an amount that, according to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, doesn’t exactly flatter the Stanford right-hander. The Pirates will be compensated with the No. 9 pick in the 2013 draft should the two sides fail to come to terms.

Assuming that both the Orioles and Pirates fail to sign their respective draft picks, it’s highly doubtful that either team will be in a position to redraft them next year.

Expected to be another weak draft class, both Gausman and Appel figure to be in the top three overall selections—assuming that they remain healthy, at least match their 2012 performances and don't scare any more teams away.

However, the failure to sign Gausman has the potential to negatively impact the Orioles system considerably more than the Pirates' with Appel. Pittsburgh’s system is already loaded with two front-line starters in Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon, who should serve as the team’s No. 1 and 2 starters by 2014, with Cole arriving well before Taillon.

Therefore, if they ultimately don’t sign Appel, who unexpectedly fell into their lap at No. 8, they can instead focus on an impact bat next draft.

Baltimore, on the other hand, has a system comprised of two future superstars in shortstop Manny Machado and right-handed pitcher Dylan Bundy. But beyond that, it lacks prospects that profile to be everyday big leaguers.

Given the team's success this season, it’s extremely doubtful that it will be able to draft a pitcher with as much upside and experience as Gausman in the 2013 draft. Therefore, it’s imperative that it does everything in its power to ink the hard-throwing right-hander so he can one day follow Dylan Bundy in a talented rotation.