Will We Ever See 4,000 Hits Again in Major League Baseball?

In a couple of weeks, we'll pass the 85th anniversary of Ty Cobb getting the 4,000th hit of his career. Playing for the Philadelphia Athletics on July 18, 1927, Cobb's milestone hit was a double off the Detroit Tigers' Sam Gibson.

Since then, only one other player has scaled the 4,000-hit mountain. Pete Rose got his 4,000th career hit on April 13, 1984 with a double off of the Phillies' Jerry Koosman. He eventually finished with 4,256, the most in baseball history. 

That was 28 years ago. Some of you reading this may not have even been born yet. But will you—or baseball fans of any other era—ever see someone get 4,000 hits in his career again? 

Considering only two players have ever reached that achievement in the history of the sport, the answer is probably no. The only guy who's even close is New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter. And he's 813 hits away from 4,000.

Going into this season, Jeter has averaged 182 hits per season. If he was able to maintain that level of performance, it would take him approximately five more years to reach 4,000 hits.

Does Jeter have another five seasons in him? He just turned 38 years old and has two more years remaining on his contract. Can he hang on for another three seasons after that? If he can still hit respectably, he'd likely find another team willing to sign him and at least sell the promise of seeing a player get his 4,000th hit.

Would that team be the Yankees? It's difficult to imagine Jeter playing in any other uniform. Yet it's also hard to envision the Yankees carrying Jeter on their roster to get to a milestone while also trying to compete for a championship.

There have been mutterings over the years about eventually moving Jeter to first base. But Mark Teixeira is under contract until 2016. Designated hitter is another possibility, but will Jeter hit well enough for that? Not to mention that Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez will still be on the roster and better suited in that role.

Jeter is probably our last great hope for 4,000 hits. Check out the list of active hit leaders at Baseball-Reference. There don't seem to be any other realistic possibilities.

Miguel Cabrera has 1,700 hits after getting three on Monday night. But he's already 10 seasons into his career. Even if he plays 10 more seasons, the math doesn't add up for him. If he kept up his current production of approximately 180 hits per season, it would take him 13 more years to reach 4,000. 

When Ryan Zimmerman got his 1,000th career hit last week, I wondered if he might be able to reach 3,000. With eight seasons on his resume already, it's a possibility. But Zimmerman has to stay healthy, something he's had trouble doing throughout his career. For him, 4,000 hits can't be considered a serious pursuit. 

Looking at the players who will reach 3,000 hits is the more realistic exercise. Rodriguez will probably get there within the next season or two. Ichiro Suzuki has a shot, depending on whether or not he signs another contract with the Seattle Mariners. 

Ryan Braun has 985 hits six years into his major league career. He'll certainly have a shot at 3,000, as he's under contract with the Milwaukee Brewers through 2021. But Braun will probably have to put in at least 12 more seasons to get there. Again, that's assuming he keeps on hitting the way he is now.

What about Mike Trout or Bryce Harper? Both look certain to have long careers ahead of them. Harper isn't the "pure hitter" that Trout is. Even though he's only 19 years old, getting to 3,000 hits might be a longshot for him.

Trout is on pace for 180 hits this season, and you figure he's going to get even better. It seems terribly premature to ponder now, but does he have more than 20 seasons in his future? It would take him approximately 23 years to get within swinging distance of 4,000 hits. 

However, that's getting way ahead of ourselves. How about Trout finishes his first full major league season before anyone begins to project his place in the history of the game? (And yes, I'm aware that I should be talking to myself about this as well.) 

Will we ever see another player reach 4,000 hits? Looking at the field of contenders, it seems extremely unlikely. But maybe Jeter can show us that it's still possible. 

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