College Football Win Totals: Going over and under on the 2012 Season

We’ve reached the “don’t chew that, that’s your arm” portion of the college football offseason. Unless your team decides to bail on its conference, the only tidbits you’ll hear between now and media days are recruiting-related (which really never stops nowadays) and updates from the police blotters.

It’s probably best you don’t hear anything at all or get really expensive earmuffs until August.

Las Vegas and other online sportsbooks understand your frustration through this difficult stretch, which is why they’ve gone great lengths to give you plenty of betting options to chew on, even though some of these outcomes won’t be determined until February of next year.

The latest prop bets to be released are season win totals, which come courtesy of the online sportsbook 5 Dimes. The gist of these bets is somewhat simple: Will a team have more (over) or fewer (under) wins than the number posted by the oddsmakers?

These numbers do more than generate money for those willing to field the bet (although it does plenty of that, too). It also provides expectations from some of the brightest handicapping minds out there.

Translation: It’s not just an exercise for the degenerates, although I’m sure they’re not complaining.

Forty-three win totals are up and ready for action, and I have thoughts on which bets I’d make in a hypothetical scenario. In this hypothetical scenario I dress like Robert De Niro from Casino and also have a closet full of really expensive walking sticks. Oh, you can always dream. 

Quick note: These are regular-season totals ONLY, which means conference championship wins or other bowl wins do not count towards these numbers.

Georgia over nine and a half wins: Despite the issues surrounding the running back situation, this team still has plenty of talent on defense and Aaron Murray on offense. Bigger yet, however, is their cake SEC schedule, which is by far the easiest in the conference.

They miss Alabama, LSU and Arkansas (well, that worked out well) and have seven of their 12 games at home. They also head to Jacksonville for the World’s Largest Outdoor [NAME REDACTED].

If Georgia does not hit the 10-win total with this team and this path (assuming there are no major injuries or further suspensions), I think you would classify it as a disappointment. Mark Richt hot-seat talk, Round 34.

Michigan under nine wins: I doubted the Wolverines plenty heading into 2011, and oh, was I wrong. Brady Hoke’s first season was a massive success and he’s parlayed it all into some masterful recruiting thus far.

As for 2012, I feel that it won’t be the same smooth trip that experienced the year before. Kudos to Michigan for scheduling Alabama to open the season, and then an early tussle at Notre Dame will be very telling for both.

Road trips to Nebraska and Ohio State plus a game against rival MSU are also on the docket, which is why I’m staying on the low end. A “push” feels like a very real possibility here, although I was certainly off the mark before.

Louisville over nine wins: This might seem like a bit of a surprise, but I have confidence in this young team. Teddy Bridgewater should be much improved, as should the young talent that he has around him. Bigger yet, however, is their schedule, which features the best the Big East has to offer. That says pretty much all you need to know.

They’ll play the likes of Pitt, Cincinnati, South Florida and they get UNC early on. It’s just not all that difficult, and it’s clear that the oddsmakers like the ‘Ville with this higher number.

I have confidence they’ll make this jump as well, and Charlie Strong’s crew will take advantage of what the schedule makers gave them.

Oklahoma under ten wins: In terms of confidence, I can’t say I am oozing with it while evaluating Oklahoma for 2012. That’s not to say this team isn’t talented, because they certainly are, but Landry Jones was incredibly average when Ryan Broyles was off the field last season, and wide receiver depth is a concern heading into the fall.

Beyond Broyles, however, is a schedule that will be challenging. They have games at Texas Tech (see: 2011), TCU and West Virginia, and they also have Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Notre Dame to deal with.

Perhaps this is the year the let-down games don’t find their way into the season path. The sportsbooks certainly think they’ll be talented; I’m just not ready to back it to this degree.

Kansas State over eight wins: Staying in the Big 12, Kansas State is coming off a tremendous 2011 campaign but is getting so-so respect from the line generators. Quarterback Colin Klein returns, as do his 40 touchdowns, which is wonderful news. They travel to Oklahoma, West Virginia and TCU, but each game on their schedule should be viewed as winnable. They also grinded out a ton of close games—especially early on last year—and I like how they battled in their losses.

The Big 12 is very much up in the air with the amount of talent that has moved on, but Kansas State should find a way to stay competitive and get to nine wins on the year.