NBA Draft 2012 Grades: Which GMs Put Themselves on Hot Seat with Risky Picks?
There are no sure things in the NBA Draft, but some decisions are far riskier than others.
For the league's general managers, accepting that risk is just part of the job.
Of course, when the most egregious gambles don't pay off, fans aren't always so understanding. That's all the more true when less-risky options were available. Sometimes, bucking conventional wisdom is a virtue.
Other times, it's an overly-confident vice.
Which GMs will be enduring a little extra scrutiny after their decisions in the first round?
Chris Grant, Cleveland Cavaliers
Getting Tyler Zeller from the Dallas Mavericks was an unquestionably smart move, and one that could make it much easier to part ways with Anderson Varejao should the opportunity present itself.
Taking Dion Waiters with the fourth-overall pick, however, isn't an exactly an obvious slam dunk.
Grant could find himself hailed a genius if Waiters lives up to his potential. On the other hand, he will be judged to have jumped the gun if the would-be All-Star falls flat. From Grant's perspective, Waiters was the right man for the job—regardless of where he was predicted to go in this draft (via The Washington Post's staff):
"“We don’t really care where a guy gets picked as long as he’s the right pick for us,” Grant said. “If we feel good about it, we’re going to take the player.”
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Waiters has the strength and athleticism to make it to the rim, but it's unclear that he'll ever amount to much of a perimeter player. While Cleveland could use a dynamic scorer of any sort, one who can reliably hit the three may have been ideal.
If Waiters don't live up to the under-the-radar hype that caught Cleveland's eye, fans will question why the club passed up North Carolina's Harrison Barnes. And, even though 2011 pick Tristan Thompson plays the 4, they may also question why Cleveland didn't take Kansas' Thomas Robinson, a guy who could have easily been taken second-overall.
Neil Olshey, Portland Trail Blazers
Few will question the decision to take Weber St.'s Damian Lillard at the six-spot. Portland needed a point guard, and Lillard was the best one available.
The more questionable decision was taking Illinois' Meyers Leonard with the 11th pick. The Trail Blazers certainly needed a center, but Leonard remains a raw scorer with a lot to learn about footwork, shooting and playing in the post.
There's no doubt the athletic seven-footer has the physical tools to excel. There's just no telling whether he'll ever make full use of those tools.
With guys like UConn's Jeremy Lamb still on the board, there's a good argument to be made that Olshey should have taken the best-available talent and found another way to address the center position.
Danny Ainge, Boston Celtics
Sure, given the Celtics' draft position, some measure of risk is inevitable.
Needless to say, Danny Ainge didn't shy away from it.
With the 21st and 22nd picks in the first round, Boston took Ohio State's Jared Sullinger and Syracuse's Fab Melo—two selections that are risky for very different reasons. Sullinger slid out of the lottery on account of concerns about his back. Melo, on the other hand, is a big man with some upside and a whole lot to learn.
In Sullinger, Boston may have a steal—if he stays healthy. If not, the clubs who passed on his undeniable talent will be glad they did.
As for Melo, he was certainly the best center left on the board, but nowhere near the best player. The Celtics may have been better off finding other ways to address their needs in the paint.
Dell Demps, New Orleans Hornets
There's obviously nothing risky about taking Anthony Davis.
Drafting Duke's Austin Rivers with the 10th pick is another story.
Forget the detractors claiming Rivers is too cocky or otherwise ill-equipped to translate his skill set to the NBA. The kid can score, and he understands the game well enough to make a relatively quick impact at the pro level.
That doesn't mean he's the right fit for New Orleans though. Unless the Hornets are expecting to sign-and-trade shooting guard Eric Gordon, Rivers will have to do one of two things: either learn how to run the point or remain content to be the team's sixth man.
Needless to say, neither of those scenarios is a sure thing. Rivers isn't know as the most deferential guy in the world, and that makes him a questionable candidate as floor general. He would ordinarily be a perfect sixth-man fit, but the minutes might not be there behind a top-shelf guard like Gordon—it's a lot easier to become an elite sixth man when you're coming in for guys like Thabo Sefolosha or Danny Green, something OKC's James Harden and San Antonio's Manu Ginobili know all too well.
It's far too soon to know how Rivers will fit in, but the early analysis renders a somewhat puzzling verdict.
