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Predictions for How the 2012 NBA Draft Lottery Will Play out

Nathan GieseJun 5, 2018

The NBA Draft is upon us with a number of burning questions regarding the lottery picks.

Who goes right after Anthony Davis at No. 1? Is Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Bradley Beal the best prospect after Davis? Who will take the gamble on Andre Drummond? How early will perennial scorer Damian Lillard be taken?

These are just a few of the questions fans are looking forward to having answers to. Plenty of intrigue is surrounding the lottery prospects in this class,  with good reason.

Besides the questions surrounding the prospects themselves, there is plenty of trade talk that could shake up the draft. Several picks have already swapped hands and there are a number of others being rumored to change. Until that time, the current draft order will reflect as it stands as of 9 p.m. central time on Wednesday, June 27. (Just so we're clear as to where these choices are coming from.)

While we know Davis will be the top pick, the rest of the lottery is as wide open. Now is the time to make the hard decisions for NBA executives. It is their job to change the direction of their franchises and no draft may be as important in this decade than this one.

It's make or break time for teams in the lottery. Few have any wiggle room in making a poor selection.

With that being said, here's how the lottery will go down come draft time.

1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis, Kentucky

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Unlike the rest of the draft, there is no speculation when it comes to the first pick.

Anthony Davis is the lone megastar in this draft, one that any team in the league would love to have. New Orleans is the team that is lucky enough to be in a position to draft him. It's essentially a done deal.

Davis patrols the lane better than the local police department controls the drug trade. His long arms and muscular body make him a dynamic threat on the defensive end. Those same traits make him versatile on offense, with the ability to bang the boards and finish at the rim.

Hornets fans are counting their lucky stars Davis is their man. The discussion is over. Davis is now a Hornet.

Let's move on.

2. Charlotte Bobcats: Thomas Robinson, Kansas

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Here is where the rest of the lottery gets a little tricky.

Davis is the clear-cut top pick for the Hornets, but after him, it's a wide open race. Except, with the news of Ben Gordan and a lottery protected 2013 first round selection from the Detroit Pistons to the Bobcats in exchange for Corey Maggette, things have changed.

Gordan brings a nice addition to the backcourt for the Bobcats. He can help lead the younger guards in the franchise over the next few years, helping them establish themselves in the league. While many feel this would be a jumping off point to draft a guard, it further notes the Bobcats overload of guards and lack of posts.

Thomas Robinson is the pick here. Robinson's physical prowess alone makes him a quality candidate for the two pick. His freight train-like upper-body as well as his mid-range shooting ability makes him a quality selection for Michael Jordan and co.

Combing Robinson with the likes of Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson and DJ Augustine, as well as young center Bismack Biyombo, Charlotte is slowly developing a nice array of young talent to help carry them in the future.

Of course, the Bobcats could go with a guard such as Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Bradley Beal, but they have nice guards already. Drafting either Kidd-Gilchrist or Beal would cause a riff in team unity as Walker, Henderson and Augustine have developed a nice relationship. Bringing in one of those two rookie guards might look nice on paper, but the core is already there. No need to throw a wrench in the process that has already begun.

Robinson is the best fit for the Bobcats, unless they trade the pick to move down in the lottery. If they keep the pick, expect to see Robinson suiting up in the new Bobcats uniforms.

3. Washington Wizards: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky

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Here we continue with the mystery selections of the draft. Ones that could fluctuate a number of times before the pick is eventually sent to the podium.

Last week, the Wizards traded away Rashard Lewis—a perennial bust after his $118 million contract signing—and the 46th pick in the draft to New Orleans for Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza. With this trade, Washington, potentially, solved their interior problem in adding Okafor. Because of this, expect the Wizards to pick up some perimeter help.

Washington has some quality guard talent in John Wall and Jordan Crawford. This is a tandem that could wreak havoc on the rest of the league for years to come. While they have extreme talent, this article outlines one of the combos biggest flaws: points per play.

Enter Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and his enormous potential to become a star.

Right now, there are a lot of question marks surround the Kentucky prospect, but the consensus says he has a huge upside in overall potential. A combination of explosive speed and ability to finish at the rim, Gilchrist will bring raw talent the Wizards love to have around.

Wall and Crawford have a few years before they can be considered great together, but adding a Gilchrist to the lineup would propel both of them to new heights. Michael's presence in the backcourt would allow for open lanes for both Wall and Crawford, as well as take attention away from Okafor and Nene in the post.

Many feel that Bradley Beal would, and should, be the pick here, but Gilchrist's potential far outweighs what Beal brings to the table. It's very debatable, sure, but there is no denying Gilchrist will help the young Wizards sooner rather than later. That is a chance the Wizards cannot afford to pass up.

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4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bradley Beal, Florida

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The Cavaliers struck gold with their selection of Kyrie Irving last year. They hope to be able to do the same thing again.

Irving did a great job in his first full year of basketball after high school—he missed most of his only season at Duke with injury—and established himself as a floor general quickly. Now that the point guard of the future has been established for the Cavaliers, they will look to add a deep scoring threat along with him.

Here's where Bradley Beal fits beautifully for the Cavaliers.

Beal's combination of three-point shooting ability and willingness to penetrate to the basket makes for a great prospect for the Cavaliers' future. He is one of the highest praise prospects in the entire draft, so it is very possible Beal will not be available for the Cavaliers. However, it has been reported the Cavaliers are looking to trade up to the second pick in order to draft Beal.

What this means is that while Beal may not be available at the four slot, Cleveland is exhausting all it's possible resources to get him. By this, the Cavaliers have made it clear that, for the right price, they will get Beal one way or another.

Landing in Cleveland could be a blessing in disguise for Beal. Working in the same backcourt with Irving will elevate both players' games overall. Beal will feed well off of Irving's leadership and Irving will benefit from Beal's constant scoring threat, taking some of the pressure off of him.

A solid win-win for Cleveland.

5. Sacramento Kings: Harrison Barnes, North Carolina

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Sacramento has quietly been putting together a solid group of young talent through the draft. They have essentially taken a page out of the Oklahoma City Thunder's rebuilding playbook.

So far, the group includes DeMarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evans, Jimmer Fredette and Isaiah Thomas. In this core group of players lies a lot of talent with enormous upside in the near future. Evans has been rumored to be on the trading block this offseason. Cousins, as his usual demeanor would suggest, has his temper issues and has been shopped around more than a few times as well.

As much as the Kings want to shop around their top talent, they will ultimately come to realize they are in a better position than most teams in the rebuilding process. Evans and Cousins, together, are outstanding talents. This young group of players the Kings have going for them right now will pay huge dividends if given some time. However, there is always room for another addition to the collective in Sacramento.

This is where Harrison Barnes comes in. As a heavily hyped high school player, Barnes couldn't quite measure up to the expectations at North Carolina. While still a great talent, his production wasn't quite what people were expecting from the former High School Player of the Year.

Barnes bring a great array of talent to the Kings with this selection. His length and outside shooting ability make him a great threat from the wing. Barnes can also work his way into the post because of his quick feet.

With this intangibles, the Kings would be fools to pass up an opportunity on Barnes. Combine him with the rest of the established crew and Sacramento could be a winners town again in a few short years.

6. Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard, Weber State

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Here is where the Trail Blazers are thanking their lucky stars Lillard has dropped right into their laps.

Lillard is a stellar scoring option Portland desperately needs. His constant threat to put the ball in the basket will help take some of the weight off of LaMarcus Aldridge's shoulders.

Coming into the NBA with great shooting range and a nose for the rim, Lillard is heavily coveted by the Blazers who will be losing Raymond Felton and Jamal Crawford to free agency.

Actually, Lillard is one name that has been jumping around a lot lately in respective Mock Drafts. Most of his jumping around has been towards the top of the lottery, as opposed to moving down the list. This is one of the big reasons why Portland will be happy to see Lillard's name still on the board, even at the sixth spot of the draft.

Given the track record for the Blazers, Lillard is the right pick in the perfect position. He's had stellar workouts for a number of teams and Portland will be happy to welcome him with open arms.

7. Golden State Warriors: Dion Waiters, Syracuse

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In actuality, Golden State shouldn't feel too discouraged with its roster as it stands.

While Stephen Curry's ankle may be a concern, he is their point guard of the future. This was cemented when the Warriors traded way high octane scorer, Monte Ellis, to Milwaukee last year. Also in that trade, the Warriors came away with Andrew Bogut to pair up with David Lee. Together, the two bigs have a shot at dominating the paint for years to come.

Klay Thompson and Dorrell Wright will help take some of the shooting load off of Curry, both producing nice numbers from three-point range. Quick and exciting, Nate Robinson will also continue his rejuvenation of team chemistry coming off the bench.

With their starting rotation pretty much set, finding help off the bench will likely be the Warriors main priority in the draft. Since that is the case, why not go with someone who not only came off the bench in college, but excelled in doing so.

Dion Waiters fits the mold perfectly for Golden State. Waiters was, by far, the best sixth man in the country as he came off the bench for Syracuse. His versatility along the perimeter, as well has his explosiveness to the basket, makes Waiters the perfect compliment to Curry, Thompson and Wright.

Even though they may be looking for bench help, if Curry's ankle were to act up on him again, Waiters would easily be able to fill in in the starting rotation. He's proven he can handle the basketball in pressure situations and isn't afraid to make the daring pass.

Waiters is the perfect fit for Golden State and should do wonders in a Warriors uniform.

8. Toronto Raptors: Perry Jones III, Baylor

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While some feel that the Raptors will pull the trigger on another guard, their interior is sporadic, at best, and needs to be addressed.

Andrea Bargnani is a solid big man, but he likes to spend much of his time around the perimeter. James Johnson and Ed Davis, while intriguing, haven't amounted to much in the NBA thus far. With these glaring issues, and an overabundance of guard talent, Toronto needs to go big with the eight pick.

Insert Perry Jones and all of his huge question marks regarding his determination and drive. During his time at Baylor, Jones' abilities and skills were never questioned, but his willingness and focus were.

On numerous occasions—most notably in Baylor's 68-60 near upset defeat to South Dakota State, where Jones went only 1-6 with two total points in a matchup that saw him against smaller defenders on every possession—Jones would disappear when the moment saw fit for him to take control of the game. 

For what it's worth, Jones is a premium talent in the draft and should be treated as such. While his desire may be something that keeps many teams away from him, once he is drafted, Jones will be looking to prove those critics wrong in a big way. Toronto likes to take some risks during the draft and Jones is definitely one worth taking.

9. Detroit Pistons: Meyers Leonard, Illinois

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As stated earlier, the Pistons traded away Ben Gordon for Corey Maggette. On the surface, this may not seem like a big deal, but it could have some impact on what the Pistons choose to do with their ninth overall selection.

It would not appear, however, that Detroit would completely change their planning and would still take a big man in the draft.

Detroit's future lies in the hands of Greg Monroe, Austin Daye and Brandon Knight right now. Monroe and Daye are both lengthy bigs with good scoring presence in the post. Knight can set up the offense in a number of ways by both penetrating and dishing.

While Tayshaun Prince, Ben Wallace, Jason Maxiell and Charlie Villanueva are still solid players, the Pistons are looking to remake their teams image. This includes moving away from the veterans and inserting young players into the lineup. It won't be a complete transformation right away, but the wheels are turning and the clock is running out for these four players.

Now that the Pistons have started to slowly gain some ground, their next big objective would be to establish a united core. Meyers Leonard would be a nice addition to an already promising starting rotation of Knight, Daye, Monroe and Rodney Stuckey.

What drafting Leonard would mean is that the Pistons are looking for potential rather than established production. Tyler Zeller would also be available here, but a fear of him peeking in college could make them shy away from him. Leonard is more of a variable than he is a certainty.

Leonard hasn't been quite the dominating presence in the post, but his size and agility alone make him a promising target. Combing size with size, and more size, Leonard, Monroe and Daye would make for a dominating interior defense for years to come.

10. New Orleans Hornets: Austin Rivers, Duke

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Fresh off of selecting their new face to the franchise, New Orleans has another opportunity to revamp the franchise.

Rivers is the prospect with the most talent left on the lottery board, making it a rather easy decision for the Hornets to grab the former Dukie. It also doesn't hurt that Rivers has known Hornets coach, Monty Williams, through his father, Doc, since he was a child. This presents a great opportunity for Rivers.

Anthony Davis might be the best prospect in the draft, but Rivers has the capabilities to be a better overall player once their careers are over. Austin came into college highly skilled in a few positions, but extremely raw with his overall game. He showed flashes of brilliance on offense, showing confidence and efficiency on a number of occasions.

One of his biggest flaws, while some view this as a selling point, could be his confidence. Many feel this something all prospects should have, but Rivers may have an overabundance of it. In fact, some might choose to call this cockiness.

Despite this, New Orleans can't afford to pass up on Rivers in this situation, regardless of his "cockiness". Coach Williams and company have the task of building up their team in order to convince Eric Gordan to re-sign with the team. Adding Davis was a nice start. Bringing in a constant offensive threat such as Rivers might be exactly what Gordan needs to see to come back to New Orleans.

11. Portland Trail Blazers: Andre Drummond, UConn

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Portland is known for their big men. Some good, some bad. Either way, their big men have made headlines and this draft will be no different.

There's always that one complete mystery prospect in every NBA. One nobody really knows what to expect from him. That one guy who has some nice assets, but really hasn't proven to be the big star everyone expected. It's those same mysteries that cause teams to shy away from selecting him.

Andre Drummond out of UConn is that guy in the 2012 draft class.

His athleticism and natural abilities are unquestionable, but it's that big "Will he?" question mark surrounding him that could be the death of him. He's unproven in a number of areas such as durability and immediate impact.

Drummond showed some good signs in his lone year with the Huskies, but his numbers were far below what many executives would have liked to see. Those lack of numbers take away the confidence to quickly pull the trigger on the big man.

Last time Portland pulled the trigger on a big man, Greg Oden, his knees failed him before he ever really had a chance at proving his worth. Drummond has those same sort of questions because of his limited action at UConn.

However, with LaMarcus Aldridge having three years left on his deal, the Trail Blazers want to start winning now to convince the All-Star to stick around. Drummond may be unproven, but rebuilding is not an option for Portland. Drafting Drummond gives them their best chance to win, and win now.

Unproven or not, the Blazers must pull the trigger on this one.

12. Houston Rockets: Jeremy Lamb, UConn

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Here's the one team that could screw up absolutely everything in the draft.

Houston has already traded for the 18th pick by giving Chase Budinger to the Timberwolves. Then, they took their 14th pick and Samuel Dalembert and traded it to Milwaukee for the 12th pick, Jon Brockman, Jon Leuer and Shaun Livingston. The complete rundown can be found here.

Except, it does not appear that the Rockets are done dealing. They have been in talks for a trade with Orlando for Dwight Howard, which could be why they are gaining all of these picks. They've also been linked to the Kings in speculation for gaining the fifth pick and Tyreke Evans. Those details can be found here.

Regardless of what could potentially happen, Houston still owns this pick and would possible be selecting for whichever team they trade with. With this in mind, logically speaking, Houston would likely select the top available player on the board.

Going by this logic, Jeremy Lamb would be the pick here for Houston.

Lamb brings great versatility on the offensive end. Utilizing both his explosiveness and quick first step, Lamb has great knowledge of how to score.

It is very questionable if Lamb will stay in Houston or if he would merely be a pawn in the Rockets' big scheme they have going on. Whether or not he stays, Lamb will come off the board in this spot one way or another.

13. Phoenix Suns: Kendall Marshall, North Carolina

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Steve Nash is more than likely not sticking around Phoenix any longer. This leaves the Suns with a huge hole to fill at the point guard position.

Here's where Kendall Marshall comes in and makes Phoenix forget about Nash.

Well, that may be a bit of an overstatement. However, if there is one rookie who can come in and make an immediate impact for the Suns, it's Marshall.

Marshall brings incredible court vision, along with his great distribution techniques, to the NBA. Skills such as these are hard to come by in the modern point guard. Today's NBA point guard is, generally, thought to be more of a score than a distributor at most times.

Although, one comparison that bodes well for Marshall's style of play is a better shooting Rajon Rondo. Much like Rondo, Marshall prefers to pass and does so by finding teammates all over the court. He also has a nose for the rim and makes any defender's job so much harder.

What makes Marshall such a viable option here for the Suns is his ability to create offense on the fly. He stepped up for the Tar Heels in his freshman season and only got better with time. One can only imagine how good Marshall will be in the NBA given some time.

He very well could be the replacement for Nash the Suns desperately need.

14. Milwaukee Bucks: John Henson, North Carolina

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Milwaukee moves down to the 14th pick after their trade with the Houston Rockets. Presumably, the Bucks would have used their pick to take a center. Potential choices were whoever was left between Meyers Leonard, Andre Drummond and Tyler Zeller.

However, with the trade bringing in Samuel Dalembert, Milwaukee can focus on another big need in their rotation: power forward.

Dalembert may not be sticking around, though, as he may just be another pawn the Rockets were using in trades. If he doesn't stick around, the Bucks will still go big with their pick. Given the players already off the table, Milwaukee can choose from two different North Carolina prospects: Zeller and John Henson.

Henson gets the call here as he brings more to the table than Zeller in terms of overall value. Zeller is a solid big man but Henson's length, shot blocking threat and shooting ability make him the go-to pick for the Bucks.

By bringing in a very athletic and versatile Henson, Monte Ellis and Brandon Jennings will have a little less pressure on them to perform defensively. Obviously, this is very good news for them as neither thrives in playing defense. While Henson doesn't mean they can take time off on defense, his length and agility make for a great defensive weapon the Bucks would love to have in their arsenal.

In Closing

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There is plenty of room for error in this year's draft. With all the trade talk surrounding the Rockets and other top picks, besides the first pick, any one of these picks could be changed.

With that being said, I stand by each and every one of these choices. And, much like Skip Bayless, I will stand by them until I am proven wrong. If I am proven wrong, I will act as if I was never wrong and I predicted exactly what happened.

Take these picks with a grain of salt, but know that I am always right.

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