2012 NBA Mock Draft: Whose Stocks Are Falling at the Worst Time?

In a lay-person context, the idea of dropping a few draft spots isn't the worst thing in the world. I mean, they still get to be an NBA player, right? 

But for first-round draft prospects, it's literally hundreds of thousands of dollars walking out of their pocket with every slip down the draft rung.  

That's why you have guys with "character issues" or "medical red flags" coming out and vehemently defending themselves.  They can literally see the Benjamins floating out of their pocket with every negative blog post.  

But whose draft stock actually slipping and whose reported demise is just a smokescreen?  Let's take a look at our latest mock draft to check in on the stocks of first-round draft picks.  

1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky

Stock Watch:  Unchanged.

I think Anthony Davis would literally have to be hit by a bus on draft day for the New Orleans Hornets to even consider drafting another player.  

And, even then, they'd probably still take the Naismith Player of the Year Award winner.  The question with Davis has never been about how good he will be, but how great he will be.  

Nothing to see here, so let's move on.  

2. Charlotte Bobcats: Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas

Stock Watch:  Slightly falling.  

Robinson is basically serving as a placeholder here until the Bobcats find a deal they like for the No. 2 pick.  Mocks have had Bradley Beal pegged to the Washington Wizards for weeks now, but the Cleveland Cavaliers reportedly talked with Charlotte about moving up to steal the Florida guard.  

That may mean a slight fall for Robinson, as new Bobcats coach Mike Dunlap came away impressed with North Carolina's Harrison Barnes last week's workout and Barnes is rumored to be a favorite of owner Michael Jordan. 

Even with a late push for Barnes, most expect Robinson to be a Bobcat.  The only question at this point is draft position.  

3. Washington Wizards: Bradley Beal, SG, Florida

Stock Watch:  Rising. 

In as much as a player can rise from Nos. 2-4, Beal seems to be everyone's new en-vogue selection as the draft's second best player (yours truly included).  

Beal has the prettiest jumper in the draft, and scouts have come to realize how misused he was under Billy Donovan during his only year as a Gator.  In a deep draft filled with a bunch of potential starters but few potential All-Stars, Beal fits a rare commodity, so it's no wonder he's become such a hot name.  

4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina

Stock Watch:  Rising.  

Barnes' combine performance shows that have elite speed, the fourth best vertical in recorded combine history, a freakish wingspan, power-forward upper-body strength and a pretty jump shot...people might want to draft you.

Barnes, who spent the early draft process projecting as a mid-lottery mid-lottery selection after a disappointing sophomore campaign, soared to the top five of almost every team's draft board after reminding us why he was the No. 1 recruit in the nation in 2010.  

There is little to no chance he goes below pick No. 4 at this point, and he could rise to No. 2 if Charlotte holds onto their pick. 

5. Sacramento Kings: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky

Stock Watch:  Slightly falling.  

Call it a hunch, but at least one team in the top five will regret passing on MKG.  The Kentucky freshman, who began the draft process as the consensus second best player, has seemingly become a forgotten man after unspectacular workout performances.  

Barring a trade, Kidd-Gilchrist shouldn't fall any lower than No. 5, where he would be a steal for Sacramento and a high-character guy to a group of, well, "lesser" character guys.   

6. Portland Trailblazers: Andre Drummond, C, Connecticut

Stock Watch:  No change.  

Most mocks have had Drummond pegged for No. 6 for weeks, and there is no real reason to change now.  He's the same boom-bust prospect he was five weeks ago.  

Drummond needs to go to an organization where he'll be nurtured and allowed to grow at his own pace.  If he's thrust into action too early and given too much responsibility...hello, Eddy Curry.

But at this spot, you cannot pass up a potential superstar regardless of risk.  

7. Golden State Warriors: Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse

Stock Watch:  Rising.

Character issues probably prevent Waiters from going any higher than this, but I'll just do a little shameless plugging of my own work to give the reasons teams can't resist the former Orange guard:   

"

...DAT TALENT DOE. Scouts don't throw the name Dwyane Wade when talking about a draftee every day. Even if the comparison is a little hyperbole (which it is), a poor man's Wade is certainly worth taking a lottery risk on despite the apparent character flaws.  

"

Look for Waiters to fall no lower than No. 13 to the Phoenix Suns, who reportedly gave the shooting guard a promise.  

8. Toronto Raptors: Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State

Stock Watch:  Rising.  

Perhaps no one did more for his draft stock at the combine than former Weber State point guard Damian Lillard.  

After coming into the process as part of a three-headed monster vying for the top point guard slot, Lillard clearly established himself as the alpha dog in workouts.  Some mock drafts have him going as high as No. 6 to Portland, but the Nos. 8-11 range feel like a more realistic fit come draft night.  

9. Detroit Pistons: Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois

Stock Watch:  Rising.  

Leonard is another player who came into the draft process jostling for draft positioning, but it now seems like he will go no lower than No. 12 to Milwaukee.  

As someone who has seen him play in person, I don't understand the hype.  From my eyes, he's markedly weak and too raw offensively to transition to the next level.  That's probably why some guys are running NBA teams while I'm just writing about them.  

10. New Orleans Hornets: Austin Rivers, SG, Duke

Stock Watch:  Rising.  

We basically know that Rivers is going no lower than No. 11 based on his workout schedule.  

That makes Rivers one of the draft's highest risers, as most had him slotted between Nos. 15-22 as little as three weeks ago.  

But when you think about Rivers' rise, it makes complete sense.  He's a rare breed of coachable and confident.  He can play two positions and has a smooth stroke out to the NBA three-point line.  

With reports surfacing that Rivers has a promise, it also makes total sense that it's from the Hornets.  Monte Williams is a close family friend, and Eric Gordon could become exceedingly expensive in restricted free agency. 

This marriage is about as close to a lock as you can get this late in the lottery.  

11. Portland Trail Blazers: Jeremy Lamb, SG. Connecticut

Stock Watch:  Unchanged.

After Lamb's disastrous pre-draft interviews and workouts, many had Lamb on the fast track to a freefall come draft night.  

But for seemingly no other reason than need and fit, Lamb's stock never took the tumble that many predicted.  Even after calling Nic Batum "the light-skinned dude" and not knowing whether he had a workout scheduled with the team, Lamb is still the best fit for Portland in this scenario, and he could still go as high as No. 8.   

12. Milwaukee Bucks: John Henson, PF, North Carolina

Draft Stock:  Slightly falling.

With Myers Leonard emerging as the favorite for the No. 9 pick, Henson's long-assumed destination is very much in doubt.  If Milwaukee decides to pass, he could even fall to Philadelphia at No. 15.  

Not a huge fall in terms of sheer draft picks, but six slots is worth millions to these NBA prospects.  

The reason for Henson's fall is the same reason for his initial rise:  He's raw.  Henson barely has an offensive game to speak of, and while he was a defensive force at North Carolina, there are plenty of questions about whether he has the strength to guard the power forward slot at the NBA level.  

13. Phoenix Suns: Terrence Ross, SG, Washington

Draft Stock:  Rising.  

Where John Henson could be the victim of losing millions, Terrance Ross could stand to make Henson's losses as teams scramble to grab elite shooting guards.  

Ross brings athleticism and a sweet shooting stroke to a team sorely in need of both qualities. 

14. Houston Rockets: Perry Jones, SF/PF, Baylor

Stock Watch:  Possibly free-falling.  

No one seems to be able to peg where Perry Jones is headed draft night.  A consensus top-five prospect headed into his sophomore season, Jones failed to impress at Baylor and hasn't leaped off anyone's page throughout the draft process.  

The problem rests with his status as a tweener.  Few teams seem to have a definitive answer to whether he's a 3 or a 4 in the NBA, and even fewer know whether he'll work hard enough to reach his potential.  

Jones could still go top-10, but it's just as likely that he'll be the proverbial last man standing in the green room.  

15. Philadelphia 76ers: Terrence Jones, PF, Kentucky

Stock Watch:  Unchanged.  

Terrence Jones' body language and attitude may be a problem for some, but his dual threat talent is too much for Philly to pass up here.

He's an excellent rebounder and shot-blocker while having the ability to stretch the floor to 20 feet.  Considering the Sixers' two main weaknesses are post defense and outside shooting, it seems like a marriage made in heaven here if Jones is still on the board.  

16. Houston Rockets: Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina

Stock Watch:  Unchanged.  

There isn't much clamoring for more Tyler Zeller talk, mainly because he's been on the national radar for so long that even the most lay basketball fan has a feel for his game.

He's a little stiff and will get overpowered by stronger players at the next level, but he's a skilled big body, and those always have value.  

Zeller won't fall any lower than No. 18 and has a ceiling of No. 14. 

17. Dallas Mavericks: Kendall Marshall, PG, North Carolina

Stock Watch:  Unchanged.  

There's a reason that a player gets pegged for one slot all the way from the beginning of the draft process. For Marshall, it's because he's the perfect fit to replace Jason Kidd.  

A distributor first, a leader second, a defender third and a scorer fourth, Marshall  has all the makings of a long-term starter at the next level, albeit one who never reaches the pinnacle.  

Sometimes a player and a team just fit.  I don't see Marshall going anywhere else, especially in this scenario where most of the high-talent/high-risk guys are off the board.  

18. Minnesota Timberwolves: Moe Harkless, SF, St. John's

Stock Watch:  Rising.

T'Wolves general manager David Kahn desperately wants a shooting guard in this slot, so his best option might be to trade back a bit and draft Memphis guard Will Barton.

If he decides to stay in the slot, Kahn will be getting one of the steals of the draft to this point in Harkless, who has been even getting some late lottery buzz after a skeptical NBA community has come around on the St. John's forward.

Harkless is not by any means ready to score consistently from the outside at the next level, but he's a committed lockdown defender whose skill set only begets getting better with age.  

19. Orlando Magic: Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi State

Stock Watch:  Rising.  

Moultrie is another questionable character guy whose stock fluctuates based on who you're talking to.  Looking at mock drafts, the Mississippi State product probably finds solace in the Nos. 14-22 range after ending his collegiate career as a fringe first-rounder.  

His stock rose based on elite leaping and rebounding abilities combined with his burgeoning perimeter game.  If he ever adds the necessary bulk to play consistently in the post, he could develop into a more athletic David West or, at the very least, a rich man's Taj Gibson.  

20. Denver Nuggets: Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State

Stock Watch:  Free falling. 

Who knew a tight hamstring could cause so many problems?  When the draft process started, Sullinger was No. 5 on my Prospect Board.  Sully was someone who I thought was being vastly underrated by the masses and would make for a steal for a team in the mid-lottery.

Now his stock has slipped so far that he's not even invited to the draft.  

But before we go leaping off the bandwagon too far, remember this isn't a DeJuan Blair situation.  He has all of his ligaments (as far as we know) and missed fewer than five games in his entire Ohio State career.  At No. 20, the Nuggets will add another piece to an already super deep roster.   

21. Boston Celtics: Royce White, SF, Iowa State

Stock Watch:  Unchanged/Rising.  

ESPN's Chad Ford says the Celtics made White a promise to the small forward if he's on the board at No. 21.  

Sports Illustrated's Sam Amick disagrees, tweeting that the Celtics made no such promise, and NBA.com's David Aldrige reported that the team wasn't even granted an individual workout with White. 

If that's the case, White almost certainly has a promise in the teens.  That promise certainly comes in wake of his stellar workout and interviewing at the combine, where White was open about his past transgressions and hoped a team could look past them. 

If the rumors are true, it looks like that's the case.  

22. Boston Celtics: Fab Melo, C, Syracuse

Stock Watch:  Unchanged.  

Another guy with some character concerns, Melo could would give the Celtics an heir apparent to Kevin Garnett if the Big Ticket decides to hang it up this offseason.  

Melo didn't start playing basketball until he was 17 years old and has already developed into a defensive force in the post.  His offensive game is more raw than you'd want from a 21-year-old prospect, but his bevy of untapped potential makes him an attractive option this late in Round 1.  

He could even go as high as No. 18 to Minnesota, 

23. Atlanta Hawks: Tony Wroten, PG, Washington

Stock Watch:  Falling.

Wroten was part of the aforementioned three-headed monster vying for the No. 1 point guard spot at the beginning of the month, but he has fallen out of favor with a number of general managers due to his broken jumpshot and reputation as a not-so-great teammate.  

It was even starting to look like Wroten might fall out of the first round, but according to ESPN.com's Chad Ford (subscription required), the Hawks have fallen in love with the Washington guard as a potential backup to Jeff Teague. 

That should allow for Wroten and his agent to breathe a collective sigh of relief.  

24. Cleveland Cavaliers: Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure

Stock Watch:  Unchanged.  

Nicholson is yet another player that teams view as a prototypical stretch 4 in a draft full of them.  In most years, a team would have fallen in love with Nicholson by now, and he'd be a lock for the top-15 lock. 

Unfortunately for the St. Bonaventure forward, he's being evaluated in one of the deepest drafts in recent memory and therefore has actually become properly related.  

25. Memphis Grizzlies: Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky

Stock Watch:  Unchanged.  

For Memphis, Teague dropping to No. 25 would be a perfect solution to their hole in the backcourt behind Mike Conley Jr.  

For Teague, Memphis is a perfect fit where he wouldn't have to step in right away as a starter or shoulder much instant-contribution responsibilities.  He'll be able to step in as a good defender and character guy while developing his shot and improving his decision-making while under Conley's tutelage.  

26. Indiana Pacers: Will Barton, SG, Memphis

Stock Watch:  Unchanged.  

After a down freshman year at Memphis, Barton was partially written off as a guy with elite talent who just couldn't put it together.  

But then came a breakout sophomore campaign and subsequent rocketing up draft boards.  With rumors flying he could go as high as No. 18 to Minnesota, the Pacers would feel like they're getting away with a steal to put behind Paul George and Danny Granger.  

27. Miami Heat: Jeff Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt

Stock Watch:  Unchanged.  

Taylor is the prototypical late first-rounder that most playoff teams look for.  He fits a need (outside shooting and elite perimeter defense) and will be able to come in and grab minutes right away.

For a team assuredly looking to amnesty Game 5 hero Mike Miller, Taylor should be able to come in right away and grab those minutes (and then some) for the champion Heat.  

28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Evan Fournier, SG, France

Stock Watch:  Unchanged.  

Oklahoma City will almost assuredly look to move this pick draft night.  They have too many financial commitments to worry about in the coming months to sign an American-born player to a guaranteed contract.

If Sam Presti decides he's being low-balled, Fournier is a perfect "stash and wait" option for the Western Conference champions.  And if James Harden proves to be too expensive of a re-signing, Presti has a slick-shooting guard overseas lying in wait.  

Perfect fit for both sides on this one.  

29. Chicago Bulls: Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor

Stock Watch:  Falling

With the Bulls reportedly looking to move Luol Deng this offseason and seemingly writing next season off as a loss following Derrick Rose's catastrophic knee injury, Miller is the perfect project for them to work on in the meantime. 

Blessed with enormous potential, most scouts were confused by Miller's decision to leave Baylor after just one season.  He's still incredibly raw and doesn't have a position or even close to NBA strength yet, but with great coaching, he could develop into something special to pair with a healed Rose.  

30. Golden State Warriors: Tyshawn Taylor, PG, Kansas

Stock Watch:  Unchanged.  

Let's be honest.  Steph Curry's ankle might be made out of papier mache, and the Warriors' attempted replacements didn't exactly set the world on fire this season.  

Taylor is a proven leader who will probably never develop into a reliable starter at the next level, but he can certainly develop into an elite backup and locker-room leader for coach Mark Jackson.  

Golden State certainly would rather have a big take-a-nosedive draft night, but Taylor isn't too bad of a consolation prize.