Dayton Flyers Among Top 25?

The University of Dayton Flyers were 21-2 and on the verge of entering the Associated Press and USA Today polls for the first time this week. The only thing in their way was a visit to the lowly 49ers in Charlotte on Sunday.

Of course, Dayton lost badly.

But, had they won, would the Flyers have been deserving of a national ranking?

On the one hand, the Flyers are still 21-3 and have one of the best records in the NCAA. Only Oklahoma, North Carolina, Connecticut, Butler, and Utah State have better overall records at this point.

However, so few of those victories were over quality teams and the Flyers have yet to face Xavier.

College basketball teams, especially near tournament time, are generally evaluated on two criteria: quality wins and bad losses. Dayton's lone quality win was against then-No. 22 Marquette.

Dayton also can claim three respectable wins over No. 44 Temple, No. 57 George Mason, and No. 67 St. Joseph's.

However, the Flyers had three bad losses: No. 145 UMass, No. 71 Creighton, and now No. 192 Charlotte. All three losses were on the road, but they were all by double digits.

It seems unfair to judge the Flyers' entire season on just seven games. It seems necessary to create a new category: near losses. These games are contests decided by a single possession, lucky shot, or a few more seconds.

For the Flyers, that category includes one-point victories over Auburn, Fordham, and St. Louis; two-point decisions over George Washington and La Salle; and a three-point win against Wofford.

Close wins come in two varieties: easy victories that are misrepresented by final scores and games that are very close at the final horn. Maybe the losing team hits a couple of lucky threes at the end of the game. Or maybe the winning team is just the last team to have possession and an opportunity to score.

Many of Dayton's games this season have been of the latter kind.

These six close wins emphasize the fragility of Dayton's overall record. The Flyers could easily have six losses.

What's the point?

UD's NCAA hopes are suspended from two anchors: an impressive-looking record and the victory over Marquette. 

Regardless of Marquette's future success, that victory will be a distant memory of the NCAA Tournament selection committee, particularly if the Flyers continue to lose spectacularly against undermatched squads.

And no, Dayton is not one of the best 25 squads in the NCAA.