2012 NBA Mock Draft: Elite Prospects with Most Bust Potential

The 2012 NBA draft is just over two weeks away, meaning scouts and GMs need to start finalizing their big boards and narrowing down which prospects they plan to select at their draft position.

Teams in the lottery need to be especially careful that they make the right decisions and do not get saddled with a bust that sets the franchise back by not panning out.

Let’s take a look at the latest first-round mock draft with a focus on some players that have a lot of skill but have a high chance to flame out quickly.

1. New Orleans Hornets (21-45): Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky

The Hornets have a bona fide star on their hands if they select Davis No. 1 overall. He’s a defensive force that will eventually develop an offensive game and become one of the great superstars in the league. 

2. Charlotte Bobcats (7-59): Bradley Beal, SG, Florida

Beal is the best offensive player in this draft class. The Bobcats direly need someone who can create their own shot, hit the 3 and get to the rim. Harrison Barnes is another option, but Beal projects to have a better career. 

3. Washington Wizards (20-46): Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky

MKG seems like he will become one of the best second bananas in the league. Considering the fact that the Wizards already have John Wall as their star, Kidd-Gilchrist will make a perfect sidekick with his defense, ability to finish and hustle.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers (21-45): Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina

Barnes is another offensive force that fits nicely on a Cavs team that is lacking a perimeter scorer outside of Kyrie Irving. They need a big swingman that can score at will and take some of the heat off the Rookie of the Year.  

5. Sacramento Kings (22-44): Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas

Robinson made a decent case to be a top pick with an incredible junior season at Kansas, but his upside pales in comparison to some of these younger players that are only scratching the surface of their potential.  

He still looks like he will become a great NBA big that can do everything required from a typical 4.

6. Portland Trail Blazers (via 22-44 New Jersey Nets): Andre Drummond, C, UConn

Drummond is a high-risk, high-reward prospect because of his immense size but limited body of work.

The UConn star failed to make any real noise, especially in important games. If he doesn’t pan out, the Blazers should not be surprised.

7. Golden State Warriors (23-43): Perry Jones III, PF, Baylor

PJIII is an incredibly skilled forward that is squandering his talents due to a lack of motor.

The Bears product has to figure out a way to get motivated and start displaying his talents on a more consistent basis if he ever wants to become an NBA star.

8. Toronto Raptors (23-43):  Austin Rivers, SG, Duke

Rivers has a lot to like about his emerging game. He’s got deep range, incredible ball handling skills and a will to score mercilessly. He has to work on getting better at moving without the rock if he wants to truly be an elite SG.

9. Detroit Pistons (25-41): Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State

Sullinger will not be drafted to be a star, but rather a solid role player that can get buckets in the post and rebound. He’s not a supreme athlete and plays below the rim, but he’s got enough upside to go in the lottery.

10. New Orleans Hornets (via 26-40 Minnesota Timberwolves): Kendall Marshall, PG, North Carolina

Marshall might not have the highest ceiling for the PGs in this draft, but he’s got the size and passing ability to be a starter in the NBA. He’ll be a perfect fit running an offense with Anthony Davis involved.

11. Portland Trail Blazers (28-38):  Terrence Jones, F, Kentucky

Jones has no clearly defined position and struggles mightily with consistency. He occasionally looks like the best player in the world and sometimes looks like he stumbled into the gym, somehow found a uniform and is completely lost.

If Portland (or whichever team drafts him) can figure out a way to get him focused and motivated, they will have a star. If not, there is a high bust potential.

12. Milwaukee Bucks (31-35): Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina

Zeller is another low-upside guy that fills a big need for the Bucks. Milwaukee lost size and defense down low when they flipped Andrew Bogut for Monta Ellis at the deadline. The UNC product will help gain some of that back.

13. Phoenix Suns (33-33): Damian Lillard, G, Weber State

Lillard is being heralded as a point guard, but he’s shown no ability to run an offense during his collegiate days. He’s a great scorer and wonderful shooter, but he doesn’t have the size to play the 2 if he cannot facilitate.

He looks like he’ll make a career out of being an energy guy off the bench.

14. Houston Rockets (34-32): Terrence Ross, G, Washington

Ross is an all-around solid G that does a bit of everything well and has nice size for both positions. The Rockets could use him, as they have been trying to move Kevin Martin for some time and this makes him expendable.

15. Philadelphia 76ers (35-31): John Henson, PF, North Carolina

Henson is a long, athletic big that would immediately press Elton Brand for minutes at the 4 in Philly. He’s a perfect fit for a franchise that isn’t rebuilding, but definitely getting younger.

16. Houston Rockets (via 36-20 New York Knicks): Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois

Leonard is a big body that looks like he’ll be able to defend some of the premier centers in the low post. His offensive game needs work, but the Rockets wouldn’t mind developing someone with his upside.

17. Dallas Mavericks (36-30):  Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor

Miller is still recovering from a high school ACL injury that limited his effectiveness during his freshman season. He often settles for jumpers, but if he shows aggressiveness and looks healthy in workouts, Miller will soar up draft boards.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves (via 36-30 Utah Jazz): Jeremy Lamb, SG, UConn

Lamb never really panned out the way he was supposed to after taking over the reins of the Huskies from Kemba Walker. He seemed complacent out on the court and never took over games the way his skills suggest he should.

19. Orlando Magic (37-29): Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse

Waiters is all over draft boards right now, but I think he’ll slip because he doesn’t have much more than a great ability to drive, a decent mid-range game and some ability to run the point.

He’s not exactly NBA-ready and I can see him falling on draft day.

20. Denver Nuggets (38-28): Moe Harkless, SF, St. John's

Harkless has a lot of developing to do himself. He’s got to work on his jumper if he ever wants to use his immense athleticism as a force to be reckoned with. He’s young and has plenty of time to hone his game.

21. Boston Celtics (39-27):  Royce White, PF, Iowa State

White has an anxiety disorder and fear of flying that are currently a major red flag. If he reveals that it is treatable in interviews and workouts leading up to the draft, Boston should take a chance on him. He’s one of the most uniquely skilled bigs in the class.

22. Boston Celtics (via 40-26 Los Angeles Clippers): Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure

Nicholson is an experienced 4 that has a nice mid-range game, a willingness to play defense, bang for rebounds and work for buckets down low. Makes a nice replacement for Kevin Garnett if he departs or retires.

23. Atlanta Hawks (40-26): Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi State

Moultrie is a supremely athletic forward that can rebound and finish at the hoop. He’s a bit inexperienced against top competition, but he could end of being a steal if he develops.

24. Cleveland Cavaliers (via 41-25 Los Angeles Lakers):  Doron Lamb, SG, Kentucky

Lamb proved his mettle during the NCAA tournament and is not afraid to take important shots and more importantly, sink them. The Cavs need a solid SG to put in the backcourt with Kyrie.

25. Memphis Grizzlies (41-25): Tony Wroten, PG/SG, Washington

Wroten has a knack for passing and solid court vision, but he has the worst jumper of any first-round prospect and is apparently a poor teammate. It’ll be interesting to see if he goes before this or falls later because of those faults.

26. Indiana Pacers (42-24):  Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky

Teague is a solid backup PG prospect that can push the break and get athletes involved. He set the table for a stacked Kentucky team and could do that with the second unit in Indiana.

27. Miami Heat (46-20): Fab Melo, C, Syracuse

Melo is a bit of a question mark right now. He didn’t have a great collegiate career, but he’s got huge size and a lot of upside.

28. Oklahoma City Thunder (47-19): Draymond Green, SF, Michigan State

Green is a team-oriented player that cares about winning more than getting stats. He’s a great 3-point shooter, a solid defender and an above-average rebounder for his size.

29. Chicago Bulls (50-16): John Jenkins, SG, Vanderbilt 

Jenkins has perhaps the sweetest stroke in the class and makes a nice backup and injury replacement for Rip Hamilton in Chicago.

30. Golden State Warriors (via 50-16 San Antonio Spurs): Jeffery Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt

Taylor’s athleticism is superb and his ability to score is improving. He’ll be a steal at No. 30 for the Warriors if he falls this far.