NBA Finals 2012: Heat Will Never Be Underdogs in Finals Despite What Odds Say
The Thunder may have 1-2 odds of winning the NBA Finals*, but they'll never be the favorites. Not when they're playing the Heat.
The Thunder are at home. They've been the better team this postseason, posting a 12-3 record, while the Heat have gone 12-6. They rank third in the league in points per game and sixth in rebounds, while the Heat rank seventh and 21st in each category, respectively.
They've played much better than the Heat this postseason, but they're still not the favorite.
The Heat have been the constant favorite to win the NBA Finals ever since LeBron James announced his decision to sign with them, and that will always be the case as long as this Big 3 stays intact, no matter who they're playing.
The Heat are a team with almost $300 million tied up among just three players. They have superstar talent in a superstar city, and the Thunder, meanwhile, are a group of young phenoms—granted, with their own younger, less established superstar—in an expansion city that's never been to the finals. They may have been playing like favorites over the last two months, and for much of this season, but don't be deceived.
There has been too much money invested in the Heat, and too many expectations, for them to fall short of a title before the Big 3 is disassembled.
The Thunder, meanwhile, have been more of a work in progress.
They've been built from the ground up around one incredibly talented player, and they've made series of trades and signings over the years that have gotten them to this point. They didn't overpay or overindulge; they've simply been able to build this team up with good drafting, good trades and a little bit of luck here and there.
Now that they've finally reached the NBA Finals, they've proven themselves.
The Heat were here last year. They still have a lot more to prove—mostly, that this massive investment wasn't a colossal waste. There are great expectations levied upon them, but more pressure doesn't necessarily mean they're underdogs.
With every single game they lose, the pressure mounts, and the same can't necessarily be said for the Thunder. If the Thunder had lost to the Spurs in the Western Conference finals, nobody would've been surprised.
The more the Thunder win, the more expectations change—but those expectations don't compare to the ones facing Miami right now.
The Heat may be trying to work the underdog card right now. It certainly served them well in Game 6 against the Celtics. But facing this Thunder squad—a team on which no starter is over the age of 28, and the average age is 24.6 years—it just doesn't ring true.
The Heat are going to be considered failures if they don't win an NBA title this season. You can't say that about an underdog.
*Odds via Vegas Insider
