NBA Finals 2012: Which Team Is the True Favorite Heading into Finals Clash?

There's no question the Miami Heat are good enough to win a title—it's just not going to happen this season. 

It's not that LeBron James and his trusty sidekicks aren't up to the task, it's just that the Oklahoma City Thunder are too good, at least at this very moment.

You could go in endless circles debating whether LeBron is better than Kevin Durant or whose supporting cast has the upper hand. OKC may very well come out ahead in such a discussion, but it's all very beside the point.

Our best guesses going forward require that we first look to recent history.

The Thunder didn't have an easy road to the NBA Finals. They just made it look easy. 

While Oklahoma City swept the likes of the reigning champion Dallas Mavericks and always-contending Los Angeles Lakers, it took the Heat a combined 13 contests to overcome lesser foes in the Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics.

Even with Chris Bosh sidelined for nine of those games, the Heat only sometimes looked like a roster capable of hanging in there with a club like the Thunder. 

Whereas Scott Brooks' resilient club found ways to win with or without Russell Westbrook at the top of his game, the Heat haven't enjoyed such a wide margin of error. Unless Dwyane Wade and/or Bosh is firing on all cylinders, the Heat are a one-trick pony—albeit an MVP pony at that.

Yes, there's an argument to be made that the Mavericks and Lakers weren't the fearsome opposition their respective legacies might suggest.

But, that's a woeful misdiagnosis.

Dallas was one of the best No. 7 seeds we've seen in some time. Rick Carlisle's veteran squad ran into some rough patches this season, but it was still built to do serious damage in the playoffs. That showed early on when the Thunder only managed to squeak by the Mavericks by a combined four points in Games 1 and 2.

With playoff-tested sharpshooters like Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry on hand, beating the Mavericks is never an easy task—to say nothing of the impact made by Carlisle's defensive ingenuity.

Of course, taking down the Lakers speaks for itself. Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum have converged to form a lethal inside-outside combination, and this dynasty is far from washed up.

They just looked the part after the Thunder were finished with them.

The Thunder's biggest statement came against the San Antonio Spurs, who won 20 consecutive games dating back to the regular season and remain the only team to have beaten the Thunder in these playoffs. 

So far, Miami just hasn't been tested. Just as the Spurs may have grown overconfident after stomping on teams like the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers, the Heat are at risk of reading too much into victories over teams that were never really meant to contend.

The Thunder may well be the first real test Miami's had in some time, a test they don't look especially well prepared to pass, at least not this year.