Euro 2012 Odds: Netherlands and 3 Other Smart Plays

With the first round of Euro 2012 group stages almost in the books, the oddsmakers have been meticulously adjusting the lines to stay updated. And while the men and women behind these lines are professionals, the first round of every tournament provides smart bettors with a number of good value plays.

The bookmakers know that for the casual soccer-watching populace, first impressions are of overblown importance. Rookie bettors skew toward the prisoner-of-the-moment end of the spectrum, which allows them to deflate the lines on sleepers that flew out of the gate, like Russia and Croatia.

In the process, quality sides that may have stumbled out of the gate get better odds than they've ever seen, making them good value plays. Here are four bets to look at if you don't want to wager like a rookie.

Netherlands to Win Championship: +1400

The Dutch didn't get the result they hoped for in their opening-round match against Denmark, falling 0-1 against the underrated Danes. But while the scoresheet may have not favored them in the end, they certainly passed the eye test.

Netherlands dominated possession, the run of play and created countless more chances than their opponents. They were unlucky in putting those chances away, but one could argue, if so inclined, that they actually looked like one of the two or three most impressive sides so far, despite the loss.

Before the tournament they were +625 to win the championship, making their current +1400 odds a solid value. Don't be afraid to buy low on them; you'll be hard pressed to find a team this good with 14-1 odds ever again.

Germany-Spain Will Play Each Other in the Finals: +550

Sometimes it's best not to overthink these things. 

The field is riddled with quality sides that could potentially upend the world's top two teams, but Germany and Spain are still the safest bets to reach the final. They have shown unparalleled consistency over the past five years, and appear to be on a crash course for a rematch of the Euro 2008 final.

Germany had to eke out an opening win over a good Portugal side, while Spain squandered a chance to take home three points against Italy, settling for a 1-1 draw. Neither team was particularly awe-inspiring out of the gate, allowing prisoner-of-the-moment types to hop on the Russian and Croatian bandwagons, but that is a fool's mistake.

Think about it this way: If you played out this tournament five times, Germany-Spain would be the final match at least once, right? That, by definition, makes the +550 (5.5-1) odds a good value.

Sweden Eliminated in the Quarterfinals: +275

Sweden was one of the most impressive teams in qualifying, racking up 24 points despite being grouped with Netherlands. They were the runners-up with the most points, which allowed them to qualify without a two-leg playoff.

Group D sees them go up against the likes of France and England, who are both favored to advance over them. But the Swedes are significantly better than they are given credit for, making them a solid dark horse to advance over one of those fickle sides.

They have a proven scorer in Zlatan Ibrahimovic and a favorable schedule, which has them facing England in the second game of Wayne Rooney's two-game suspension.

If they are able to qualify as the Group D runners-up, they would play the Group C winner in the quarterfinals. The presumed winner of Group C is Spain.

I like their chances of bowing out in the quarters.

Germany to Win Championship with Mario Gomez as Top Scorer: +1000

During their opening victory against Portugal, it became explicitly clear—if it wasn't beforehand—that Germany's attack, while balanced, will usually culminate on either the head or foot of Mario Gomez.

The Bayern Munich striker, who had a breakout season in 2012, finished the Germans' lone goal of the game with a beautifully placed header.

Germany is +275 to win the tournament, which makes the bet a good value because, should they win, it will most likely be on the strength of Gomez' finishing ability.

With Spain benching Fernando Llorente yesterday, the biggest Spanish threat to take home the Golden Boot was relegated, making Gomez' victory even more likely.