Euro 2012 Predictions: 4 Keys to Portugal Pulling the Upset over Germany

Euro 2012 kicks off tomorrow with Group A action between Greece and Poland, then continues with Russia vs. the Czech Republic.

But the real action starts on Saturday, when play gets started in Group B––the group of death.

With Germany, Netherlands, Portugal and Denmark all vying for two elusive spots, the games should feel like elimination round contests right from the tournament's onset.

And while Germany and Netherlands are the two favorites to survive, Portugal and Denmark (ranked five and ten in the world, respectively) both pose serious threats to upset them.

Portugal does have the potential to beat Germany. But pulling off an upset won't be easy. Here are four things Portugal must do to upset Germany in their opening round match.

Control Emotions Early

The Portuguese play with the flair and passion that embodies all people from the Iberian peninsula. They're a fiery, volatile bunch.

But the Germans are a tactical, organized bunch that can take advantage of overzealous attacking.

If Portugal comes out with too much adrenaline, the Germans will be able to pass it through their defense with surgical precision.

But if the Portuguese come out under control, and prudently decide when to and when not to attack, they can keep this game close throughout.

Star Power on the Wings

Like Argentina's Lionel Messi, Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo has yet to succeed on the international level the way he has with his club side.

But if Portugal wants to emerge from The Group of Death, Ronaldo must be the best player in the tournament.

And along with Nani attacking on the opposite wing, the Portuguese need to attack from out wide as often as they can. 

The Germans have roaming midfielders who like to attack, so the Portuguese could find success counter-attacking, and putting the ball on their two best players' boots. 

Defensive Cohesion

On paper, there's no reason to expect Portugal to have trouble defending against other teams.

Pepe and Bruno Alves are two of the strongest defenders in the world. Moutinho and Meireles combine to form a daunting defensive midfield as well.

But even though they have many stellar individual defensive options, the Portuguese have historically struggled as a defensive unit. They've looked less like a disciplined phalanx and more like a disorganized kerfuffle.

Whether it be egos, scheme, or communication that has plagued them in the past, it can't happen against Germany (or Netherlands or Denmark, for that matter). The Germans will eat them alive if the defense functions as six players instead of one cohesive entity.

Luck

The one thing that any team (except maybe Spain) needs if they want to beat Germany is luck.

The Germans are gonna get theirs. There's no way to stop it. They're too big, too fast, too strong, too smart, too experienced and too unified to not create their own chances.

But like Bayern Munich in the Champions League Final, you need them to be unlucky on some of their attacks.

And on the other side of the ball, you need some breaks. Maybe a bad call here or there. Maybe a shot that ricochets into the middle of the box for a tap-in. Maybe a gaff from the keeper.

You can't bank on luck being in your favor, but if you want to beat the Germans, you're gonna need some of it.