3 Signs New England Patriots' Run Is over

The New England Patriots have reigned atop the AFC for a decade. They have survived departures, torn ACLs and NFL scandals to remain the most consistent team in the league. 

That isn't to say that they don't have holes in their team. For years, they have traded down picks, always bolstering next year's draft at the expense of immediate impact. The Pats have been able to do this for years because with their scouting and development, they could simply plug players in to the system, quickly compensating for any individual leaving the franchise.

Part of the reason this has continued to work is Tom Brady's unparalleled ability to make everyone around him better. As this past Super Bowl showed, even this has its limits. The Pats have several issues facing them if they want to continue their dominance.

Decline of the Defense

In 2009, the New England Patriots had the fifth-best defense in the NFL, giving up only 17.8 points per game. In the offseason defensive coordinator Dean Pees left the team for a position with the Baltimore Ravens, and the team lost DE Jarvis Green to free agency and released LB Adalius Thomas and CB Shawn Springs. To compensate for these departures they drafted CB Devin McCourty and LB Brandon Spikes.

Over the 2010 season, the Patriots dropped to the NFL's eighth-best defense, averaging 19.6 points per game. They added DE's Andre Carter and Mark Anderson in the offseason. Following the season, the Pats drafted only one defensive player, Ras-I Dowling, who was injured early in the 2011 season.

The Patriots defense slipped further in 2011, giving up 21.4 points per game and falling to 15th in the NFL. With two first-round picks in the draft, New England drafted DE Chandler Jones and LB Dont'a Hightower

Defense was once the lynchpin of the Patriots success. It has slowly become an exploitable weakness covered by their unbelievable offense. Jones and Hightower figure to join McCourty and Spikes as the backbone of the defense for years to come, but they still may take a year or two to fully develop.

RB Attack

With RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis departing for the Bengals in the offseason, the Patriots will look for Danny Woodhead and free-agent signee Joseph Addai to help bolster the team's rushing attack. Addai is a big name, but he is also injury prone. In 2010, he played eight games and in 2011 he played 11. He failed to eclipse 500 rushing yards either year. 

As has sometimes been the case in the past, the RB position will likely be by committee. The Patriots' second-leading rusher in 2011, Stevan Ridley, looks like the heir apparent for the lead back vacancy, but is he ready to carry the load? He averages 5.1 yards per carry, but only had 10-plus attempts in in four regular-season games. 

Former second-round pick Shane Vereen will likely get more touches this year after playing very little last year. Don't be surprised to see undrafted rookie free agent Brandon Bolden to get some significant time as well.

Since Corey Dillon, the Patriots haven't had a feature back-style run game and have always relied on at least two runners to split the load. Woodhead can be a matchup nightmare for defenses, but who will be the other face on the two-headed beast?

AFC East Is Catching Up

With the exception of Tom Brady's injury-shortened 2008, the Patriots have won the AFC East every year from 2003-2011. Aside from the Dolphins in 2008 and Jets' 2009 and 2010 teams, the Pats have reigned over this division largely uncontested.

However, the rest of the AFC East might finally be beginning to catch up.

The Buffalo Bills made waves this offseason in signing Pro Bowl DE Mario Williams to bolster their pass rush, and they will benefit from a healthy Fred Jackson rejoining the team after healing the fibula he fractured in Week 11 of last season. Additionally, when hot, the Bills can beat anybody. Remember, Buffalo was the only team in the AFC East to beat the Pats last year.

The New York Jets return most of their offensive personnel from 2011, the biggest loss being WR Plaxico Burress. Through the draft, they attempted to fill this vacancy with WR Stephen Hill from Georgia Tech and bolstered their pass rush with first-round pick DE Quinton Coples. Through free agency, they added experience to their secondary with the acquisitions of LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell. The Jets also now have the additional dimension of a Wildcat attack run by Tim Tebow.

The Miami Dolphins may still be a few years away from division title contention, but the framework is there for success. With new head coach Joe Philbin—architect of the unstoppable Packers offense—at the helm, and eighth overall pick Ryan Tannehill developing, the Fins could be a formidable foe in the near future.

In the meantime, likely starter Matt Moore may surprise fans this year with his play. In games he started last year, the Fins were 6-6 and he threw for 16 TDs and nine INTs. He may continue to mature and put up better numbers this season, especially if opposing defenses are too busy worrying about RB Reggie Bush, who had a breakout 1,000-yard season last year. 

To Conclude

The Pats benefit from a very easy schedule this upcoming year (the easiest in the NFL if you go by this analysis). With the schedule rotation, the AFC East is playing the AFC South and the NFC West, neither of which is looking like a power division this season. Additionally, New England only faces four 2011 playoff teams in 2012.

In all likelihood, they will win the AFC East again. It would be crazy to predict otherwise. All of their question marks aside, Tom Brady is still throwing the ball and and Bill Belichick is still calling the plays. Against this schedule, the Pats look like a 12-plus-win team. 

Once in the playoffs, however, everything changes. This past year demonstrated even the prolific Brady can not compensate for all of their flaws. Facing three elite teams in the playoffs will expose any team's blemishes. Is what they've done through the draft and free agency this offseason enough to strengthen their squad?