2012 NBA Mock Draft: Teams That Will Reach for Risky Prospects

One part of the speculation of the NBA draft is over. We know what order the teams will be drafting in. That actually makes a big difference. 

Teams draft players they need. The top 30 players don't go in order of their ability. They go in a combination of their own ability and the team's need for a certain position.

For instance, we know that the Cleveland Cavaliers aren't going to be drafting a point guard because they already have their quarterback of the future in Kyrie Irving. So, even if the best player on the table were a point guard, they would take an inferior player to fulfill a greater need. 

On the other hand, there's not a team in the lottery who would pass on Anthony Davis, who is a generational talent. 

The science of the draft (and mock drafts) is to balance need with potential. What happens, though, is sometimes teams have so much need at a position that they reach for a player in the hopes that he'll fill a need, but he simply doesn't have the potential. 

Here is a mock with the latest draft order and highlighting teams who are in danger of reaching for risky prospects. 

New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis

New Orleans will take Anthony Davis with this pick, no questions asked. In fact, if the lottery ball had bounced differently, whoever got the first-round pick would use it on Davis, no questions asked, because Davis is the top player coming into the NBA, no questions asked.

Davis will pair up with Eric Gordon to produce a tandem that has huge potential written all over it. It deserves to be asked: Does this team become attractive to Deron Williams now?

Charlotte Bobcats: Thomas Robinson

Before you say "No way in heck" or something similar I have for words for you. Kwame. Jordan. Michael. Brown. Of course, they aren't quite in that order. 

My point here is that it's not exactly impossible to envision Charlotte reaching here. 

I'd also point out that Sean Deveny of Sporting News also has Thomas Robinson going second, so I'm not the only person in the world who has this thought. 

Robinson will be a reach, but Jordan has been known to reach in the past. The thing is, though, this gamble could very well pay off. Robinson is tremendously talented, albeit a bit undersized for a power forward, which is where the risk comes in. 

Washington Wizards: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist should go third. He's been projected by most to go second or third.  He would compliment the Wizards well. He makes sense over Drummond, as the Wizards already have a starting center in Nene. 

Kidd-Gilchrist and John Wall would be able to run a fast break or two, don't you think?

Cleveland Cavaliers: Harrison Barnes

Right now, the Cavs are set at point guard with Rookie of the Year Kyrie Irving leading the way. They are reasonable at power forward with last year's other high lottery pick, Tristan Thompson, coming on late in the season. 

That leaves them in need at the wings, which makes this pick between Harrison Barnes and Bradley Beal. I believe the Cavs are going to take Barnes because it's the right choice. 

There has been a recent infatuation with Beal that has him climbing up into a top-five or even, according to some, top-three quality of player. 

He is a player with a high basketball IQ and would be a great addition to any team, but there are some red flags with him, chiefly his .445 field goal percentage and .339 from three. 

I know he's reported to have deep range, even NBA range. I just see .339 and question that, and if I'm Cleveland, I question it hard. 

I think that in the end, Barnes is less of a gamble and the Cavs take him. 

Sacramento Kings: Andre Drummond

As much as Bradely Beal has seen his stock rise, Andre Drummond is taking a beating for whatever reason. In terms of pure physical talent, though, Drummond has the tools to be an absolute beast in the NBA. 

He needs to work on his skills and develop his game, but he has the ability to be an increasingly rare commodity in the NBA, a low-post player who can finish at the rim at will. 

Combined with DeMarcus Cousins, he could (and probably will) form an electric duo in the paint. With the Kings already set with a number of quality backcourt players, they could finally make the postseason next year. 

Portland Trail Blazers: Bradley Beal

Bradley Beal will fall to sixth, and the Trail Blazers will be stuck in that "need vs. talent" conundrum. 

They have a greater need at point guard. They would arguably be better off with Damiann Lilliard, and they may very well take him. But there will be that big juicy Beal hanging from the tree just waiting to be plucked off. 

In the end, when you're rebuilding like the Trail Blazers are, it's better off to take the best player left on the board, and so that's what they'll do. With that, Beal-zeal will fill the Rose Garden. 

Golden State Warriors: Perry Jones

Perry Jones is a player that has the potential to be truly magnificent. He also has the potential of being the most disappointing player of this year's draft. 

At his best, Jones is an extraordinary player who can dominate a game on both ends of the court. He is a great finisher at the rim, and when engaged, he's an outstanding defender as well. He can shoot, he can drive and he can post up. 

On the other hand, at his worst, Jones just barely "is." You'd almost think he's not even on the court at times.

The Warriors' biggest need right now is at small forward. They are set at the other four positions, so they'll be looking for the best small forward available, and that will be Perry Jones. If he pans out, the Warriors will be a team to contend with next year.

While Jones might be a bit of a risk, he's hardly a reach. He does qualify as risky, though. 

Toronto Raptors: Jeremy Lamb

The Toronto Raptors will essentially be adding two players this year as last year's top pick, Jonas Valanciunas, should be joining them this year. 

That will leave their biggest need at small forward. They can do one of two things with this pick, then. They can either draft a small forward, or they can draft a shooting guard and move DeMar DeRozan to small forward. 

Considering that DeRozan's skill set is actually better suited to playing small forward, it makes more sense for them to do the latter. It also makes sense because the next best shooting guard on the board is better than the next best small forward (Terrence Jones) on the board. 

Detroit Pistons: John Henson

John Henson would fit in nicely with the Detroit Pistons. There is some question as to whether he's a small forward or a power forward, though. He's not quite big enough to be a true power forward, and he doesn't have the shooting rage to be a small forward. 

What he does have is off-the-charts athleticism and length. He's an absolutely ridiculous shot-blocker as well, batting away 3.6 shots per 36 minutes. 

There is a distinction between "project" and "reach." Particularly in today's NBA, you aren't going to get a lot of finished projects coming out of the draft. Henson has to be developed, but he has the attitude and athleticism to do just that. 

Greg Monroe and Henson will make an intimidating frontcourt in Detroit for years to come. 

New Orleans Hornets: Damian Lillard

With the Hornets landing the top overall pick, some have forgotten that the Hornets actually have two picks in the top 10. The second could have nearly as much impact as the first. 

Damian Lillard has tremendous potential. He was the second leading scorer in all of basketball and an efficient scorer at that. Chad Ford has him ranked as the seventh best player in the country.

The Hornets just happen to have be the first team that needs a point guard, so they will be utterly giddy when he falls to them. 

He has a tendency to look for his own shot first, which could cause problems with Gordon being their top option on offense, and that's why this pick could fall into the reach category. However, Lillard has a good basketball IQ and should learn as he grows. 

Portland Trail Blazers: Kendall Marshall

Kendall Marshall will be the second point guard taken, but he will be the first choice for the Trail Blazers anyway. They are a team better equipped to utilize his talents. 

Marshall would be a great point guard for Portland, who is more in need of a distributor than a scorer. With LaMarcus Aldridge, Wes Mathews, Nicolas Batum and the projected Bradley Beal to pass the ball to, he would have plenty of weapons to utilize. 

Milwaukee Bucks: Tyler Zeller

The Milwaukee Bucks traded away their starting center, Andrew Bogut, for Monta Ellis and don't really have another true center on their roster. 

Tyler Zeller might not be the best or most complete center in the draft, but he's arguably the fastest and the best runner. The Bucks have broken out a new kind of offense with their Brandon Jennings and Ellis backcourt. 

They are a high-octane, high-flying offense, and Zeller would fit in well with his athleticism, which is fairly high for a seven-footer. 

He's not as strong as you want a seven-footer to be, but for the Bucks, who are going to be looking to run the ball, he would be a nice fit. 

Phoenix Suns: Austin Rivers

With the possible departure of Steve Nash, the Suns will be in full-blown rebuilding mode, and the first they're going to need a star. Position really isn't so much a factor as star power.

The biggest star available to them at this point is Austin Rivers, who has gained fame because his father is Doc Rivers, head coach of the Boston Celtics. He also displayed some clutch shooting for the Duke Blue Devils in his one year on the team.

Rivers has the ability and game to be a star entirely in his own right. His offensive game is about as offensively polished as you could hope for from a player his age. 

If there's a strike against him, it's that he can be too selfish. On Phoenix next year, that might not be an issue, as there just aren't that many players on the team that are star material. 

This definitely falls into the "reach" category as Rivers would probably not be this highly thought of if it weren't for his pedigree. 

Houston Rockets: Jared Sullinger

Jared Sulliger was once considered a player who could be the top overall pick in the draft. When the Houston Rockets see him still on the board, Leslie Alexander will moonwalk across the room, Daryl Morey will go into a full scale "So You Think You Can Dance" routine and Kevin McHale will do a soft shoe. 

Yes, they will be happy that Sullinger is on the board, and they will snatch him up in a heartbeat. 

Sullinger is one of those guys that you have to ignore the other stuff and just recognize one thing. He can ball. He's strong as an ox, knows how to battle for position and understands the game. He'll be an excellent fit on the Houston Rockets. 

Philadelphia 76ers: Leonard Myers

The Philadelphia 76ers are a tough team to get a fix on because they are a deep team, and they don't really have any needs or weaknesses that are easily addressable in the draft. Because of that, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sixers make a draft-day trade. 

Barring that, they may be looking to replace the potential loss of Spencer Hawes. Meyers Leonard would fill that role. His improvement form his freshman to sophomore year is encouraging. 

In the hands of the right coach—and Doug Collins fits that description—Leonard could develop into a quality starting NBA center. 

Houston Rockets: Arnett Moultrie

Arnett Moultrie might be the player that is moving up the boards the quickest right now. He can shoot the ball to space the floor, is developing his low-post game after transitioning from small forward to power forward and plays solid defense on both positions. In fact, he can also play the center. 

He needs developing, though.

The Rockets will double-down on their bigs and suddenly be very solid there. 

Dallas Mavericks: Terrence Ross

The Dallas Mavericks are a tough team to predict because they're expected to address needs through free agency and/or trades as well. They'll be looking to the draft to develop what they don't land in the other areas. 

One thing is for certain: They're set at power forward. Assuming they land Deron Williams in free agency, they'd be set there too. I also expect that Shawn Marion will still continue to play small forward for them. 

That leaves two positions they need to fill: center and shooting guard. While a lot of projections have them picking a center, I expect they'll take a shooting guard for the simple reason that they aren't as hard to develop, and Dallas will want to compete now. 

Because of that, I think they'll pursue a center who has already established an NBA-level game through free agency. 

That leaves shooting guard, and the best shooting guard on the board at that point would be Terrence Ross, who would be a nice replacement for Jason Terry. 

Minnesota Timberwolves: Dion Waiters

The Minnesota Timberwolves really only have one need in the starting lineup, and that's shooting guard.

They don't need a center because of the surprising Nikola Pekovic (or, as I like to call him, Pecs-ovic—dude is wide) breaking out over the second half of the season. 

There are a number of projections I've seen with them taking a forward, which makes no sense to me since they have Derrick Williams and Kevin Love already. A respectable shooting guard would round out their starting five, and Dion Waiters would give them that. 

He actually has an aggressive style that would compliment Ricky Rubio's run-and-gun play as well, on both ends of the court. Waiters is adept at shooting lanes and getting steals.

Together with Rubio and Williams, he could make the 'Wolves an even more exciting team to watch next year. 

Orlando Magic: Moe Harkless

Once again, because we have no idea what's going to happen with other moves for the Orlando Magic this summer, it's hard to predict who they are going to take. That being said, the thing they need the most if they don't make any moves is a wing who can put the ball on the floor and drive to the lane. 

Firing Stan Van Gundy might have solved the problem philosophically, but it didn't magically imbue anyone on Orlando with the ability to drive to the rim. 

I think it's safe to say they don't need another shooter. They have plenty of those. 

Their offense is so "either/or" and that's why they struggle. They either shoot the three or go inside to Dwight Howard. Moe Harkless may have weaknesses, but that's his strength. He would be a valuable addition to the Magic, giving them a tool they don't presently have. 

Denver Nuggets: Marquis Teague

The Denver Nuggets will probably be losing their backup point guard, Andre Miller, to free agency and will be looking to the draft to fill the role. 

Marquis Teague and Denver would be a perfect fit. It works for Teague because he's better off if he can be put in a position where he's the backup and has plenty of tools around him to take the pressure off of him. Having George Karl as a coach to start his career off sure doesn't hurt either. 

Teague won't move up much because his decision-making isn't sound enough to warrant being a starter just yet, but he could flourish and be the steal of the draft if he ends up in the right situation. 

Boston Celtics: Doron Lamb

Doron Lamb will go to the Boston Celtics, where, if Ray Allen sticks around for another year, he will have the perfect mentor. 

It's a nice fit for Lamb, who is a shooting type of shooting guard more than a wing. He is not the type of guard that drives the lane like Dwyane Wade, but he's more of a true shooter. He uses his dribble to create space for himself and sink his jumper. 

Having a year behind Allen where he could learn the ropes would be a perfect scenario for him. Having Rondo to pass the ball to him doesn't hurt, either. 

Boston Celtics: Terrence Jones

Much as Doron Lamb could be groomed as an eventual replacement for Ray Allen, Terrence Jones is a potential replacement for Paul Pierce. 

There is a lot of upside with Jones, and he could be a long-term starter in the NBA, but he won't be an immediate one. He needs to go to a team that is established at the position and who can develop him over a year or two. 

Doc Rivers has done a great job developing players over the years, making players taken in the bottom third of the first round into legitimate starters or even bona-fide stars, such as is the case with Rajon Rondo. 

Jones and Lamb might not be great right out of the gate, but in two or three years, they could be quality players. 

Atlanta Hawks: Fab Melo

The Atlanta Hawks have been struggling to find a solution at center for years. They've been playing both Al Horford and Josh Smith out of position as a result. When they take Fab Melo, they'll get exactly what they need.

Melo is a true seven-footer who plays well under the basket and would be excellent at gobbling up all those Josh Smith misses and putting them back. Finally, he's an outstanding defender and, combined with Smith and Horford, would give the Hawks an intimidating frontcourt defensively. 

Melo dropped a little bit because of his suspension, but as scouts see him play and that gets further in the past, GMs are going to worry less about that and pay more attention to what he does well. 

Cleveland Cavaliers: Royce White

With a potential starting five rounded out, the next thing the Cavs would need is a sixth man. Royce White would fill that role exceptionally well. He's well-regarded as being an athletic player who knows how to put the ball on the floor and is strong. 

He's a 6'8" player, extremely athletic at 270 pounds and has the ability to run an offense and be a kind of point-forward. He's versatile, able to score, pass and rebound. Sound familiar?

He's had some off-court issues which have hurt his draft stock, but along with Thompson, Irving and Drummond, the Cavs could be putting together a lethally talented team. 

Memphis Grizzlies: Tony Wroten

After this draft, there may be something Wroten in the state of Tennessee. That's a good thing. The Grizzlies are possibly going to lose O.J. Mayo to free agency. While he's a restricted free agency, it remains to be seen whether they'll want to match any and all offers.

Mayo is a very long way from being a popular player with head coach Lionel Hollins, and while he did make some inroads this season, it's doubtful that Memphis is going to keep him if someone overpays. 

Enter Tony Wroten, who is another guard who can play either point or shooting guard and whose strength is attacking the basket. Wroten would fit nicely in the sixth-man role for the Grizzlies, who are set with their starting five. 

Indiana Pacers: Evan Fournier

The Indiana Pacers, as the Miami Heat found out, are a better team than people are giving them credit for being. They have a lot of depth and versatility, but the one thing they need is a closer. Danny Granger fills the role to a degree, but they need someone else who can take the pressure off him when he's struggling. 

Evan Fournier seems to be that type of player. He's built a reputation for coming up big in big-time situations in Europe.  

Miami Heat: Festus Ezeli

How about a Festus Ezeli for the rest of us, really? That's what the Heat want to know. 

But the Heat need a legitimate center like George Costanza needs a Festivus. Things have gotten so bad for them at center that they started Dexter Pitman, and that's the pits, man. 

Last year, the Heat had the same need, and they squandered their pick on a backup point guard. They got a redundant small forward in free agency rather than pursue a center. 

This year, they're finding out that it helps to have a legitimate big man who can play. Whether Ezeli will be that guy remains to be seen, but he's a real big man and he has NBA potential. It's hard to go down from Dexter Pitman. 

Oklahoma City Thunder: Tyshawn Taylor

Tyshawn Taylor led his Kansas team to the finals with his explosiveness to the basket. He averaged about 17 points and five assists per game for the Jayhawks this year. He has the same kind of combination of size and speed that Russell Westbrook has. 

There's something to be said about being able to bring in the same type of player off the bench. You don't have to change your offense when the starter sits. Taylor is something of a "Westbrook-lite" and would be an intriguing fill-in for Westborok. 

The downside is that he's not always the best decision maker and has a tendency to turn over the ball too much. That hasn't exactly been a concern for the Thunder in the past, though. 

Chicago Bulls: John Jenkins

The Chicago Bulls can kill two birds with one stone if they pick John Jenkins, who can play both point guard and shooting guard. He is more of a "both" than a "tweener." 

He is capable of both getting penetration and pulling up for the step-back jumper. He's a pure shooter who can hit shots from mid-range and from out deep, so he would be a bit of a difference from Rose. But when you're drafting 29th, you don't have as much to chose from. 

Jenkins could spell time backing up the point guard spot and also at the shooting guard spot. If he prospers, the Bulls can let C.J. Watson go next year and leave him as the full-time backup.

For the time being, he can create shots off the dribble and give the Bulls an efficient scorer who can produce points off the bench. 

Golden State Warriors: Jeffery Taylor

At this point in the draft, it's often the best thing to simply take the best athlete left on the board, and that's likely what Golden State will do here. That distinction goes to Jeffery Taylor. 

Taylor is a tremendous athlete, but his decision-making leaves something to be desired form time to time. Taylor shows ability to dominate, and he also shows an ability to completely disappear, especially in big moments.

He might not be the best player to carry a team, but he is the type of player who would be serve well as a scorer off the bench, where he could focus his energy and use his top-notch athleticism to score points.