2012 NBA Mock Draft: Landing Spots for Top College Stars 1 Day Before Lottery

With Wednesday's NBA Draft Lottery just around the corner, we have one last chance to take a guess at how the first round will play out according to the most probable draft order.

Of course, probabilities aren't everything, and the outcome of the lottery will almost certainly change these projections.

At the moment, the Brooklyn Nets don't have a selection in this draft. But if the first-round pick they traded to the Portland Trail Blazers falls in the top three in Wednesday's lottery, the Nets will keep that pick after all—an eventuality that would radically alter this draft and its impact on the league.

It goes without saying there could be a few other surprises. But assuming the probabilities hold (however improbably), here's how the first round may go down.

1. Charlotte Bobcats: Anthony Davis, PF (Kentucky)

There's been no secret that Davis is all but guaranteed to be selected first in June's draft. Nor has there been any doubt that such a choice would be completely justified. While the draft will become significantly more interesting after this choice, there just aren't many scenarios that would jeopardize Davis becoming the top pick.

Davis blocked nearly five shots a game in his freshman season, and he'll remain an impact defender in the NBA thanks to his athleticism and freakish length. Between that, his rebounding ability and his quickness in the lane, Davis will be a beast on both ends of the floor for years to come.

2. Washington Wizards: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF (Kentucky)

I've had Thomas Robinson going at this spot for the last couple of weeks, but I'm going back to my original gut feeling. Kidd-Gilchrist just has too much upside, and the risk that Robinson is too undersized to dominate the big leagues has to give teams pause.

In reality, either of these guys would help the Wizards (or any other team that winds up with the second pick). For all of Kidd-Gilchrist's talent on the floor, it's his leadership and contagious energy that make him so irresistible.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bradley Beal, SG (Florida)

Beal fits in perfectly as Cleveland's new go-to scorer. Kyrie Irving will remain the leader of this team, but he needs a sidekick who can fill it up. That makes Beal an obvious choice—he can score from anywhere, and Irving's passes won't hurt his cause one bit.

4. New Orleans Hornets: Thomas Robinson, PF (Kansas)

Assuming the Wizards pass on Robinson, it will be incredibly hard for the Hornets to do the same. Yes, New Orleans could use a point guard (and maybe a small forward), but that's where that second lottery pick will come in handy.

Elite big men are harder to come by. Even if Robinson is more of an undersized 4, he's still good enough to start in the NBA for a long time. He'll mix it up in the paint on both ends of the floor, and he has mid-range game many power forwards would envy.

5. Sacramento Kings: Harrison Barnes, SF (North Carolina)

This is where the draft starts to get really interesting. On the one hand, Sacramento might take a risk and go for the still-raw Andre Drummond. On the other, the team could go after a high-ceiling athlete like Perry Jones III. I think they keep it safe and pick Barnes—he can defend and hit jump shots. The Kings already have plenty of young potential. They need a sure thing.

6. Portland Trail Blazers (via Brooklyn Nets): Andre Drummond, C (UConn)

It doesn't get much more simple than this. Portland traded Marcus Camby, and it needs a center. Drummond is the best one on the board (assuming he's still around). Zeller may be a safer choice in some ways, but even if he's something of a flop, Drummond would be a pretty good flop. He's an exceptional athlete with exceptional size.

7. Golden State Warriors: Perry Jones III, PF (Baylor)

Sure, Jones III is a bit of a risk, but he's the kind of risk a middling team like Golden State has to take. This kind of upside doesn't show its face often. What this guy has lacked in consistency, he makes up for in talent and crazy athleticism.

8. Toronto Raptors: Jeremy Lamb, SG (UConn)

Toronto could find themselves with a steal if Lamb falls this far. In most drafts, he wouldn't—in this one, he just might. Lamb is a solid scorer with the length and quickness to be a pretty good defender, too.

The Raptors have plenty of needs, but the thing they need most is a perimeter player who has the potential to take games over. DeMar DeRozan could get there, but if he doesn't, there needs to be a Plan B.

9. Detroit Pistons: John Henson, PF (North Carolina)

Henson is a better athlete than anything Detroit currently has on its front line. Greg Monroe is great, but he doesn't have the above-the-rim skills that a pure athlete like Henson brings to the table. Expect plenty of blocks and rebounds in this man's future.

10. New Orleans Hornets (via Minnesota Timberwolves): Damian Lillard, PG (Weber State)

Like Jeremy Lamb, Lillard would probably be selected much higher than this in some drafts. He's without question one of this draft class' best scorers, and he can get his points in a lot of different ways. He'd make an ideal understudy behind Jarrett Jack for the moment.

11. Portland Trail Blazers: Kendall Marshall, PG (North Carolina)

Marshall is the polar opposite of Lillard, but he's still a pretty good point guard. He doesn't bring an innate scoring ability to the table, but he's a much better passer than the vast majority of point guards his age.

12. Milwaukee Bucks: Tyler Zeller, C (North Carolina)

Much like Portland, the Bucks need a center after trading starter Andrew Bogut before the trade deadline. Zeller is already pretty skilled and more prepared to start at the NBA level than most of his peers.

13. Phoenix Suns: Terrence Jones, SF (Kentucky)

Phoenix is in no position to get too clever here. The Suns need to take the best available player, and Jones is the closest thing to an all-around star you'll find outside the first 10 picks. If he doesn't actually go in the top 10 picks, he'll be a steal here.

14. Houston Rockets: Austin Rivers, G (Duke)

Rivers would be an especially wise choice in the event Kyle Lowry changes teams this summer. He's nowhere close to being a pure point guard, but he's an electric scorer who will quickly find a prominent role in just about any backcourt rotation.

15. Philadelphia 76ers: Terrence Ross, SG (Washington)

Philadelphia has a deep roster, but it doesn't have a solid starter at the 2 spot. Ross has good size and athletic ability for a shooting guard, and he does a little bit of everything—as evidenced by the 16.4 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.3 steals he tallied as a sophomore.

There's a good chance Ross may be long gone this late in the draft. If scouts prefer him to Jeremy Lamb, these two guards could easily trade places.

16. Houston Rockets (via New York Knicks): Jared Sullinger, PF (Ohio State)

The Rockets don't have much of a backup for Luis Scola, much less a bruiser like Sullinger. He very well may not have the height to become an NBA star, but he has the skill and tenacity to become a solid player one way or another.

17. Dallas Mavericks: Meyers Leonard, C (Illinois)

Dallas' roster is in shambles at the moment, so nothing would be surprising here. But Leonard would give the Mavericks a chance to replace Tyson Chandler in the middle—an absence that became especially conspicuous in the first round of the playoffs.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Utah Jazz): Jeff Taylor, SF (Vanderbilt)

Minnesota has a few options on the wing (e.g. Wesley Johnson, Martell Webster), but Taylor would immediately become the Timberwolves' best perimeter defenders. He's also a better scorer than advertised.

19. Orlando Magic: Arnett Moultrie, PF (Mississippi St.)

With Dwight Howard's future uncertain, Orlando should probably start looking for some big guys—especially ones with a lot of upside. Moultrie's athleticism would make him a logical fit for those needs.

20. Denver Nuggets: Tony Wroten Jr., PG (Washington)

The jury is still out on Wroten Jr., but we know he has a lot of work to do. Denver could afford to wait on him thanks to Ty Lawson's emergence, but he could turn into a surprisingly good player down the road.

21. Boston Celtics: Quincy Miller, SF (Baylor)

Boston may still be a contender, but it's a contender that has very little depth. Miller may not make huge contributions right away, but he could give Paul Pierce a rest now and then. In time, he could become one of the more versatile forwards in the league.

22. Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers): Fab Melo, C (Syracuse)

The only thing Boston needs as much as depth is a legitimate center. Like so many young bigs, Melo's skills are still raw, but he's explosive enough to take a chance on.

23. Atlanta Hawks: Dion Waiters, G (Syracuse)

Waiters is easily the best scorer left in the draft at this point. He's not much of a shooter just yet, but he's quite the slasher. The Hawks can't afford to be too choosy—Waiters would make the bench substantially better.

24. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Los Angeles Lakers): Moe Harkless, SF (St. John's)

Unless the Cavaliers wind up drafting someone like Harrison Barnes or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, they'll still need a small forward. Harkless won't be a starter right away, but he's better than just about anyone on Cleveland's bench right now.

25. Memphis Grizzlies: Andrew Nicholson, PF (St. Bonaventure)

This pick is just icing on the cake for Memphis. The Grizzlies already have a young lineup with tons of talent. Nicholson would give the team another big with plenty of scoring ability, both around the basket and from mid-range.

26. Indiana Pacers: Draymond Green, F (Michigan St.)

Like Memphis, the Pacers don't need a heck of a lot—except for maybe a star or two. They won't get one here, though. If this pick isn't traded first, look for Indiana to take a versatile forward like Green. He'd give the team some options on the bench.

27. Miami Heat: Festus Ezeli, C (Vanderbilt)

Ezeli might not be much of an improvement over Joel Anthony right now, but he could be in time. He's got good size and defensive instincts—the kind of assets Miami could desperately use inside.

28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Evan Fournier, SG (France)

Anyone's guess is as good as mine, here. The Thunder could reach a bit and find a big to back up Kendrick Perkins, but otherwise they might go with a high-upside guy like Fournier.

29. Chicago Bulls: Marquis Teague, PG (Kentucky)

Ordinarily the Bulls could do whatever they wanted to with this pick, but the chance Derrick Rose will miss next season recovering from knee surgery means they'll go after a point guard. Teague is quick, talented and easily the best point guard left late in the first round.

30. Golden State Warriors (via San Antonio Spurs): William Buford, SG (Ohio State)

The Warriors have so many young prospects that they may be best served trading this pick for a veteran. Otherwise, they could go for a solid all-around scorer like Buford and see how he develops in time.