NBA Lottery Odds 2012: Odds Every 1st-Round Prospect Gets Picked in the Lottery

We're about one day away from finding out where nearly every NBA team will land in the 2012 NBA draft.

Once we find out the placement of the lottery teams we will have a better idea which players will be the most likely to hear their names called in the first 14 picks of the 2012 NBA draft.

So which players, out of the top 30 first-round prospects, will be lucky enough to hear their names called by a lottery team?  You're in luck, because you're about to find out.

Ahead is a list of every first-round prospect's odds of being selected in the top 14 picks of the 2012 NBA draft.

All prospects are listed in respect to their overall ranking, not their likelihood of getting selected in the lottery.

No. 30 Will Barton, SG Memphis: 7 to 1

Lottery Qualities—Pure scoring abilities, athletic and agile

The one quality that will absolutely keep Will Barton from hearing his name called in the first 14 selections of the draft is the fact that he's 6'5'' and only 165 pounds soaking wet.

Barton is certainly one of the most lethal scorers in the draft, and scouts will certainly see that when he shows up at the NBA draft combine next week.  Scouts will also see the fact that he's a streaky player from beyond the arc who just so happens to be a slightly below-average defender.

The only way Barton will work his way into the lottery is by showing up at the combine 30 pounds stronger.  If that doesn't happen, Barton will find himself as an early-second or late-first-round selection. 

No. 29 Doron Lamb, SG, Kentucky: 5 to 1

Lottery Qualities—Elite scorer, athletic, efficient ball handler

Doron Lamb is the kind of player that will excel no matter where he goes in the draft.

At Kentucky, Lamb proved that he's a natural winner and that he's capable of leading a team with his pure abilities to score the ball.  Lamb's biggest detractor is his size, and while that's something he can change, he won't be able to add enough strength before the NBA draft combine to seriously impact his draft stock.

As a shooting guard, Lamb is a little too small to consider taking with a lottery pick, and that's why he will be a late-first-round selection.  Whoever drafts him will be getting a player who's ready to make an immediate impact coming off the bench. 

No. 28 Jeffrey Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt: 7 to 1

Lottery Qualities–Athletic and physical defender, improved shooter

Jeffrey Taylor is a mature and developed player, much like Kawhi Leonard was last year.  While Taylor won't be as good as Leonard, he can certainly make an instant impact if he finds his way on to the right NBA team.

Taylor lacks a high-level basketball I.Q, and he isn't a terrific ball-handler.  With that being said, he's certainly a capable player who's going to be a great defensive player at the next level.

There's absolutely no way that Taylor will find his way into the lottery selections of this year's draft, he's just not explosive enough of a player.  That doesn't meant though that he isn't NBA ready.  He's just not the most athletic or most exciting prospect available. 

No. 27 Draymond Green, SF, Michigan State: 7 to 1

Lottery Qualities—Mature leader and high basketball I.Q

Unless Draymond Green shows up at the NBA draft combine having dropped 15 pounds and flying around the court like LeBron James, he won't come close to hearing his name called in the first 14 selections in this year's draft.

Green is a little too large to be a small forward, and he's a little too small to play as a power forward, which puts NBA teams in an interesting situation. Based purely on his size, Green won't be considered a lottery selection.

While he's one of the best passing big men in the draft, and he has an impressive range for his size, the fact that no one knows exactly where he'll fit in the NBA will keep him in the later parts of the first round.  Whoever drafts Green will get one of the most NBA-ready players in the draft.

No. 26 Royce White, SF, Iowa State: 3 to 1

Lottery Qualities—Versatility, physicality, great ball-handler for his position

Royce White is a draft prospect that is easy to fall in love with.  He's a very physical player at 6'8'' and 240 pounds, and he also happens to have an impressive range in his offensive skill set.

Scouts will love the fact that White is able to score inside and outside, with an ability to get to the rim with a serious level of tenacity.  The only issue that will hold White back is that he's had numerous off-the-court issues that will impact the way NBA front offices view him.

If White can impress scouts at the combine with his strength, and make them overlook his immaturity, he could very well move up the draft boards and into the conversation of teams at the end of the lottery selections.  

White has a lot to prove, but he's certainly capable of doing that.  Don't be shocked if he works his way into consideration of being a top-14 pick. 

No. 25 Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky: 14 to 3

Lottery Qualities—Speed and agility, above-average court vision

Marquis Teague is a solid draft prospect at the point guard position, with an impressive motor and a solid first step.  Unfortunately, the fact that he's only 6'2'' and 180 pounds will certainly hold him back to being selected in the late-first-round area.

Teague will be a great addition to a team where he can take a year or two to develop strength and work on his perimeter game.

Unless Teague shows up at the NBA draft combine and shoots like Ray Allen, there's no way that he'll be able to make it into the lottery picks of this year's draft.  Whoever ends up drafting Teague will get a solid developmental talent, but there's no doubt that Teague could've benefited from staying at Kentucky for one more year. 

No. 24 Fab Melo, C, Syracuse: 5 to 3

Lottery Qualities—Seven-foot frame, athleticism

There are two qualities that will keep Fab Melo from being a lottery pick this year.

First is his raw offensive talent.  The fact that Melo hasn't developed any mid-range game at all yet is a major concern, and it could seriously hinder his draft stock.  The second quality is his low basketball I.Q.

Melo is the definition of a raw, developmental prospect, but some scouts will overlook that and continue to be infatuated with his size, mobility and defensive abilities.  

Unless Melo puts together a combine performance for the ages, he will hear his name in the last few picks of the first round rather than in the lottery picks.  With a bad combine performance, Melo could see his draft stock plummet all the way to the late second round. 

No. 23 Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor: 10 to 3

Lottery Qualities—Basketball I.Q, great rebounder and defender

Quincy Miller is another player who would've benefited from staying in college for another year.  He lacks the polish it takes to excel immediately in the NBA, and he also hasn't filled into his 6'9'' frame.

The main reason why Miller won't make it into the lottery this year is because of his lack of strength.  While Miller is versatile enough to play either the 3 or 4 spot, he lacks the strength and physicality in his game it takes to excel at the next level.

At Baylor, Miller relied too heavily on his perimeter game, and if he does that at the NBA draft combine, his draft stock will fall.  Miller needs to prove that he has the physicality to go up against bigger and stronger forwards in the NBA.  If he can't prove that at the combine, he could possibly fall to the last few picks of the first round. 

No. 22 Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure: 10 to 3

Lottery Qualities—College experience, length, shooting range

Andrew Nicholson is the kind of player that won't amaze scouts with his athleticism but, instead, will wow them with his impressive tactical approach to the game of basketball.

The main reason why Nicholson isn't in the lottery conversation, aside from the fact that he played at a small-market school, is because of his tendency to be inconsistent on the offensive side of the ball.  The weight of Nicholson's draft stock will largely hinge on whether he'll be able to hang with big men from major colleges like John Henson, Perry Jones III and Anthony Davis.

The immediate answer to that question is no, but only time will tell if that's the case.  Nicholson does have an impressive range to his offensive game, and that will help him stay in the first round of the draft.  

He won't be hearing his name called in the first 14 selections, though.  That's almost a guarantee. 

No. 21 Tony Wroten Jr., SG, Washington: 7 to 3

Lottery Qualities—Strong finisher, athletic combo guard 

Tony Wroten Jr. is the definition of a high-risk/high-reward kind of player.  He certainly has the physical gifts it takes to excel in the NBA, but that won't translate if the issues that plagued his college career find their way into his NBA career.

Wroten often times takes low-percentage shots and is somewhat reckless with the ball.  In some respects, he's a lot like J.R. Smith, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. But it's not really a great thing either.

When it comes to whether Wroten will hear his name called in the top 14 picks this year, the resounding answer is no.  It will take a memorable performance at the NBA draft combine for Wroten to leap over guards like Dion Waiters, Austin Rivers and even his teammate at Washington, Terrence Ross.  

He needs to add some polish to his game to be an elite player.  He won't show that polish at the combine, though, which means his name will be called in the latter part of the first round rather than the lottery. 

No. 20 Moe Harkless, SF, St. Johns: 7 to 3

Lottery Qualities—Agility, athletic defender, smooth transition scorer

Moe Harkless shouldn't be training for the 2012 NBA draft right now.  Instead he should be taking summer classes at St. Johns in preparation for the start of his sophomore season.

Unfortunately for Harkless, somebody told him that he was ready to play in the NBA, and he believed them.  

There's no doubt that Harkless has NBA potential, but he's not there quite yet.  Harkless is the kind of player who won't be ready to compete for two or three more years, and that will certainly keep him out of even being in the conversation when it comes to this year's lottery picks.

Whichever team drafts Harkless will be getting a developmental player who's not ready to make an impact on an NBA roster yet.  One of Harkless' biggest weaknesses is his lack of defensive focus, and that will scare scouts away.

If Harkless doesn't put together a stellar combine performance, I could see him falling out of the first round. 

No. 19 Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois: 7 to 3

Lottery Qualities—Seven-foot frame, athleticism, defensive presence

Meyers Leonard shouldn't even be in this article, because he shouldn't be in the pool of 2012 draft prospects.  Leonard needed to stay in college more than most other early entries this season.  He's just too raw of a player right now.

That raw talent will entice some scouts but it will also scare a majority of them away—especially scouts of lottery teams.

Leonard has too many questions surrounding him to be a lottery pick, like whether he can actually compete in the NBA with his weak offensive skill and if he'll ever truly grow into his seven-foot frame.  

Leonard is one guy that I can almost guarantee won't here his name called in the top 14 picks this June, and he only has himself to thank for that. 

No. 18 Kendell Marshall, PG, UNC: 5 to 6

Lottery Qualities—High basketball I.Q, true court general

Kendall Marshall is one of the few true court generals in this year's draft.  When it comes down to the true point guards of the draft, Marshall is undoubtedly the creme of the crop.

Watching Marshall play reminds me of watching Deron Williams play when he was back at Illinois.  If Marshall can remind scouts of that at the NBA draft combine, he'll soar back into the conversation of being a lottery pick.  Marshall could very well be the steal of the draft, as he's a mature and developed talent, unlike a vast array of raw talent in the draft.

The Phoenix Suns could really benefit from drafting Marshall, seeing that Steve Nash's best years are behind him.  With a solid performance against the best of the best in this year's draft, Marshall could hear his name called in the top 14 picks, and it would certainly be a wise choice by whichever team selects him. 

No. 17 Austin Rivers, PG, Duke: 5 to 6

Lottery Qualities—Solid ball-handler, long-range shooting ability

If Austin Rivers ends up finding his way into the lottery, I'll be absolutely shocked.  Rivers just doesn't have enough polish or experience to warrant a lottery team taking such a big risk on him.

Rivers is the kind of player that needed to spend another year or two in college, working on his strength and improving his efficiency on the offensive side of the ball.  If Rivers doesn't put together a stellar performance at the combine next week, I could see him falling into the late parts of the first round.

It would be interesting if Rivers fell to a spot where the Boston Celtics could realistically have a shot at him.  Rivers could end up playing for his dad, Doc Rivers, if that's the case.

One thing is for sure for Rivers heading into the draft, and that is that he won't hear his name called in the top 14 picks. 

No. 16 John Henson, PF, UNC: 3 to 5

Lottery Qualities—Great defender, maturity, athletic big man

John Henson is a less athletic but more mature version of Anthony Davis, and NBA scouts are bound to see that next week at the NBA draft combine.

If Henson hadn't injured his wrist this past season, he could very well be a lock to be a lottery pick.  Unfortunately, his recent injuries and his lack of size on his 6'10'' frame will most likely keep him from hearing his name called in the top 14 picks.

If Henson adds some size to his frame and works on his mid-range game, he will be a double-double machine at the next level.  

If other guys flounder at the combine, Henson's work ethic and maturity might be enough to catapult him into the lottery.  If he finds himself there, it will certainly be warranted. 

No. 15 Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi State: 2 to 5

Lottery Qualities—Agility, good rebounder, 6'11'' NBA-ready frame

You're not alone if you don't know the touch about Arnett Moultrie.  He exploded onto the draft-lottery scene after a solid season with Mississippi State this year, but he's fallen off the wagon a bit, especially after MSU's collapse at the end of the year.

I expect Moultrie to rebound at the NBA draft combine next week, though—reminding scouts why they fell in love with him in the first place.

If Moultrie can put together an impressive performance at the combine, proving that his versatility will help him excel in the NBA, he will be able to sneak into the lottery.  I wouldn't be shocked if Moultrie jumps ahead of players like Terrence Jones and Terrence Ross in the draft after the combine, and neither should you. 

No. 14 Terrence Jones, SF, Kentucky: 3 to 5

Lottery Qualities—Seven-foot wingspan, versatility, court vision

Terrence Jones might be one of the most athletically gifted players in this year's draft.  He also could very well be one of the most inconsistent.

One of the biggest questions that Jones will have to answer is why he tends to be inconstant in the effort he gives on the court.  In spite of his inconsistency, Jones can score from virtually anywhere on the court, and that makes him an extremely enticing draft prospect.

If Jones fails to prove to scouts that his inconsistency was just a fluke in his years at Kentucky, he will certainly fall out of the lottery, and I can see that being a very realistic possibility.  Don't be shocked if Jones is the first lottery-caliber player that falls out of the top 14 picks. 

No. 13 Terrence Ross, SG, Washington: 1 to 3

Lottery Qualities—Athleticism, shooting range, explosiveness

Terrence Ross would have benefited from staying in college another year or two, as he still needs to fill out his 6'6'' frame.  Leaving Washington early could pay off, though, as long as Ross puts together an impressive performance at the NBA draft combine.

Ross dominated defenders in the Pac-12 with explosive athleticism and impressive vertical leap.  That will certainly translate into the NBA.  The only question is just how well it will translate, and if it will be enough to make him an elite NBA player one day.

If Ross fails to put together a solid workout at the combine next week, he could see himself fall into the latter parts of the first round.  There are a number of athletic shooting guards in this year's draft that Ross will have to outperform to earn a spot in the lottery. 

No. 12 Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State: 1 to 2

Lottery Qualities—Intelligent player, lower-body strength, great rebounder

Jared Sullinger could very well be the first "lottery talent" to fall out of the lottery in this year's draft.

There are a number of questions around Sullinger's game.  First of all, his conditioning has never been an area of strength for him, and his lack of size as a power forward will certainly hold him back in the NBA.  

Sullinger will need a great performance at the NBA draft combine if he is going to make it into the top 14 picks of the draft.

Whoever drafts Sullinger will be getting one of the best rebounders in the draft, but they also might be getting a player who will never live up to the hype.  There are too many questions surrounding Sullinger to guarantee him a spot in this year's draft lottery. 

No. 11 Tyler Zeller, C, UNC: 1 to 2

Lottery Qualities—Mobility, seven-foot frame, mid-range game

Tyler Zeller is the other seven-footer that will most likely be taken in the top 14 picks of this year's draft.

While there are questions surrounding Zeller's toughness and athleticism, there's no doubt that the fact that he's seven feet tall will be enough for scouts to fall in love with him. Scouts will also love Zeller's ability to step out of the paint and hit mid-range jumpers, somewhat reminiscent of Tim Duncan.

Zeller needs to add some bulk to his frame to make it in this year's lottery against all the other athletic talent in the draft.  If he can do that and show some physicality in his game at the NBA draft combine, he'll be one of the last names called in the lottery. 

No. 10 Jeremy Lamb, SG, UConn: 1 to 3

Lottery Qualities—Athleticism, long-range shooter, seven-foot wingspan

Jeremy Lamb is an athletically gifted wing-man, with skills reminiscent of a little-known player named Tayshaun Prince.

The one thing that could keep Lamb out of the lottery is if scouts and general managers don't think he'll be able to grow into his lanky 6'5'' and 185-pound frame.  

Aside from his lack of size, Lamb is one of the best perimeter scorers in the draft, and that will most likely help him be on the fringe of the top ten picks in the draft.

If the Charlotte Bobcats somehow fall out of the top four spots in the draft, they need to do everything they can do move back in the draft to a safe place where they can draft Lamb without reaching too far.  Just imagine if the Bobcats could reunite Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lamb.  Yep, that could be a great move to make. 

No. 9 Dion Waters, G, Syracuse: 1 to 10

Lottery Qualities—Work ethic, physicality, confidence

Dion Waiters could very well be the player that increases his draft stock the most at the NBA draft combine next week.

With an impressive performance in the 2012 NCAA tournament, Waiters proved that he's ready to play and excel at the next level.  The way Waiters scores with the ball is reminding scouts of the way guys like Dwyane Wade and Russell Westbrook score the ball.  That's certainly high praise that doesn't get handed out all that often.

With a solid outing at the combine Waiters could sneak into the top five picks of the draft—depending on which teams fall into those spots.  No matter what happens with Waiters, one thing is for sure, and that is that Waiters could very well be the sleeping giant in this year's draft. 

No. 8 Perry Jones III, PF, Baylor: 1 to 4

Lottery Qualities—Size, agility, athleticism and versatility

Perry Jones III will be taken in the lottery; there's no doubt about that.  The question is how high teams will be willing to jump to get him.

Aside from Davis, Jones is the most athletic player in the draft, and general manages and scouts will absolutely fall in love with that when they see it at the NBA draft combine next week.  If Jones can add some size to his 6'11'' frame, he'll be able to compete at an elite level in the NBA.

If he doesn't, he'll be just another athletic player in the association. Questions surrounding Jones' drive will certainly be called into question.  Luckily he can overcome those questions by referring back to the pure athletic abilities that exist in his game.  

No. 7 Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State: 1 to 7

Lottery Qualities—Experience, ability to penetrate, protects the ball

Damian Lillard is one of those draft prospects that exploded onto the scene this past season, and for good reason.  While Lillard might be a little-known prospect, there's no doubt that he'll be making waves over the next few weeks.

The main reason why Lillard isn't an absolute lock to be drafted in the top 14 picks of this year's draft is because of his size.  At just 6'2'' and 180 pounds soaking wet, Lillard needs to bulk up a bit to be able to compete at an elite level in the NBA.

Lillard's draft stock will depend solely on how well he performs against the elite competition that will be at the NBA draft combine.  If he performs well enough against guys like Dion Waiters and Marquis Teague, he'll be able to be a top 15 pick.  If not, though, he could fall well into the latter parts of the first-round. 

No. 6 Harrison Barnes, SF, UNC: 1 to 1,000

Lottery Qualities—Maturity, consistency, high-level basketball I.Q.

Harrison Barnes could've been a top-five pick in last year's draft, but he decided to come back to UNC for one more year.  While that decision might have hurt his draft stock, it certainly made him a more polished and complete player.

Whoever drafts Barnes will be getting the most mature player in the draft, and in some respects that is more valuable than any physical gifts that any other player can offer.

Barnes certainly needs to work on adding some strength to his frame and becoming a more aggressive player.  Once Barnes realizes that he can be an elite player in the NBA, he'll be an incredibly dangerous player.  Barnes is a top-ten pick.  There's no doubt about that. 

No. 5 Andre Drummond, C, UConn: 1 to 1,000

Lottery Qualities—Ridiculous upside, 6'11'' 275-pound frame, defensive abilities

Andre Drummond is a lock to be taken in the top 14 picks of this year's draft based purely on the potential that exists within his nearly seven-foot frame.

If Drummond shows that he's added a level of polish to his offensive skill set at the draft combine, he will be able to move up in the draft.  If he fails to do that, he could certainly fall.  But he won't fall out of the lottery picks.  That would be insane for a player with his raw potential to fall that far.

The fact that Drummond is already filling out his NBA frame is reason enough to believe that he will not only be drafted in the lottery picks, but also in the top five picks of the entire draft. 

No. 4 Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas: 1 to 1,000

Lottery Qualities—Collegiate experience, NBA physique, defensive abilities 

Thomas Robinson is an absolute freak.  With his 6'9'' and 240-pound frame, he will be a force to be reckoned with in the NBA, as long as he's allowed to play the small forward position.

I know it sounds crazy that a player Robinson's size would play the small forward spot, but honestly he's a little bit undersized to be a power forward in the ranks of the NBA.

As long as Robinson focuses on his post game at the combine, and doesn't get distracted by his tendency to take his game to the perimeter, he'll remain an all-but-certain lock to land in the lottery this year.   

No. 3 Bradley Beal, SG, Florida: 1 to 1,000

Lottery Qualities—6'5'' frame, pure-stroke, fearless offensive attack 

I could go on and on about how I think Bradley Beal could be the best player selected in the 2012 NBA draft, but I won't because I'm sure you'll hear all about that as we move closer towards the actual day of the draft.

As a freshmen at Florida, Beal took over the Gators and led them deep into the NCAA March Madness tournament.  One of Beal's most attractive qualities is his impressively high basketball I.Q., and that's exactly what will make him stand out compared to other prospects in this year's draft class.

Watch for Beal's stock to skyrocket once he takes his talents to the NBA draft combine next week. Beal is as much of a lock to get drafted in the lottery as Anthony Davis.  The main difference between Davis and Beal is that Beal is actually a very developed and polished player at this point in his career.    

No. 2 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky: 1 to 1,000

Lottery Qualities—Physicality and ability to attack the rim

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will be the second Kentucky player draft in this year's draft, and for good reason.

Kidd-Gilchrist is a physical player who knows how to get down and dirty on the defensive side of the ball—which is something that not a lot of prospects know how to do.

Kidd-Gilchrist's 6'7'' frame at the small forward position will garner a lot of interest, as will his impressive level of discipline and maturity at his age.  Kidd-Gilchrist isn't a more athletic player than Anthony Davis, but he is certainly more complete.  

Don't be shocked if Kidd-Gilchrist is drafted with the No. 2 overall pick, depending on which team falls at that spot.  

No. 1 Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky: 1 to 1,000

Lottery Qualities—NBA-ready frame, athleticism and dominant defensive production

Barring an injury during the NBA combine or any other freak accident, Anthony Davis will absolutely be the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NBA draft.

Due to his insane wingspan and vertical leap, Davis is the kind of prospect that NBA general managers dream about in their sleep.  Sure, Davis is an absolutely raw talent that will take a few years to truly develop.  But that doesn't mean teams shouldn't take him.

No matter which team ends up with the top pick in this year's draft one thing is sure—Anthony Davis will be the name that team is calling.