NBA Lottery 2012: Does Landing the No. 1 Pick Really Matter?
This upcoming Wednesday, we will find out the lucky NBA franchise that ends up with the right to draft Kentucky Wildcats center Anthony Davis.
Davis is currently 19 years old and will be entering the NBA after one year of playing college ball. During his time with the Wildcats, Davis played a key role as the defensive anchor on a Kentucky team that won the NCAA championship. Many of Davis' teammates, including Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Terrence Jones, will also be entering the draft and are projected to go in the first round.
The 6'10", 220-pound phenom averaged 14 points, 10 boards and nearly five blocks per in his freshman year. He shot 62 percent from the field on an average eight field-goal attempts, converted 71 percent of his free throws and committed only two personal fouls and one turnover per game.
Those last two stats may be the key reasons as to why Davis will be getting drafted in the first place. Being tall and having footwork is one thing, but being able to stay out of foul trouble and not coughing up the ball is huge for a player of Davis' size.
It's an indication that the team who selects Davis will not be dealing with any growing pains or maturity issues, as he is clearly showing how intelligent of a basketball player he is.
In this instance, landing that No. 1 pick truly does matter, especially to a team like the Charlotte Bobcats.
This isn't like most years where there are a few bad teams; the 2011-'12 Bobcats were light years ahead of the next team in terms of horrendously awful basketball. This team was the icing on the cake of the 2011-'12 NBA regular-season season, which was just about as disappointing as we expected it to be.
However, no team contributed to that standard more than the Bobcats, who finished 7-59 and ended up with the single worst winning percentage in NBA history (.106, just enough percentage points to beat out the 1973 Philadelphia 76ers who finished with a winning percentage of .109 after a 9-73 season). Charlotte ended the season on a 23-game losing streak and we're pretty sure they would have gone a few more seasons before eventually winning.
The 'Cats finished dead last in scoring at 87 points per game, field-goals made at 33, field-goal percentage at 41.0 and three-point percentage at 29.5 percent. They also finished 29th in three-pointers made, 27th in three-point attempts, 29th in rebounding and 29th in steals per. Like I said, light years bad.
Davis isn't going to come and correct all those problems if the Bobcats do land the first pick, but he will address a few key issues including field-goal percentage, rebounds and steals. Davis' presence in the lane will deter slashers and his offense, which is equipped with decent footwork and a short jumper, will attract some actual attention to the post.
Plus, Davis and Bismack Biyombo in the frontcourt will form one of the better defensive duos in the league.
Landing the No. 1 pick in this case is a necessity for the Bobcats. As good as Kidd-Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson and Bradley Beal currently look, Charlotte cannot pass up the chance to acquire a center who can play exceptional defense and has an offensive repertoire that can be built on.
However, was there ever a time where landing the No. 1 pick didn't matter? A weak draft class like 2000 when Kenyon Martin, Stromile Swift and Darius Miles rounded out the top three? A team that had a tremendous amount of luck on their side when they landed the top overall pick?
The Chicago Bulls of 2008 would be a perfect example of the latter description. The Bulls had finished 33-49, good enough for only the ninth worst record in the NBA, yet still found themselves with the first overall pick. They beat out teams like the Miami Heat, who ended up with 15-67 record after an injury-riddled season.
This is an interesting case, but neither of those teams truly needed a number one pick. While the Bulls did get Derrick Rose out of the deal, they still could have selected Russell Westbrook, Michael Beasley or Kevin Love later on. Furthermore, the Bulls still had a solid core and were only lacking that dynamic threat who could come in and lead the team.
The Heat front office had the idea of Dwyane Wade not returning to form in the back of their minds, but it still wasn't essential that they land the first overall pick. Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley or any of the top five picks would have been helpful in their case.
In a draft as stacked as 2008's, any team would have come out as a winner within the first seven picks. Rose, Beasley, O.J. Mayo, Westbrook, Love, Danilo Gallinari and Eric Gordon...each of those players currently serve a significant role on their team.
The Oklahoma City Thunder, who drafted Westbrook, have had just as much success as the Bulls; The Minnesota Timberwolves, who traded for Love after selecting Mayo, were well on their way to a postseason appearance this past season before some key injuries; The Los Angeles Clippers landed Chris Paul solely because they were offering up Eric Gordon.
Derrick Rose has been just as important to Chicago as Westbrook has been to the Thunder. That's the problem with these drafts—you just can't predict how things are ever going to turn out. Nobody knows if the lottery pick your team selected will be plagued with injuries or fail to adjust to the speed and size of the NBA; it's all a crap-shoot and some teams either do their homework on certain players or just get lucky.
The Seattle Sonics getting the upper hand over the Portland Trail Blazers because they drafted Kevin Durant instead of Greg Oden was luck. Every team in that year's draft wanted Oden on their team and Durant was merely the consolation prize. It was more realistic to believe that Oden would turn into a dominant 20-10 center, than to think that the wiry Durant would turn into a three-time scoring champion and MVP runner-up.
Once again, landing the No. 1 pick doesn't matter; doing your research and getting your fair share of luck is all that can help you in the draft.
There have been plenty of four-year college players selected with the top overall pick in the draft who turned out to be nothing, while several international players we've never heard of are taken in the second round and become Sixth Man of the Year.
Nobody expected Michael Olowokandi to be out of the league within a decade and nobody predicted that Monta Ellis would end up as one of the league's leading scorers even though he was taken midway through the second round. It's just how things pan out; some players get hurt and others relish in the speed of the NBA.
Landing that No. 1 pick doesn't matter...always. Except this year. For a team like the Bobcats, it absolutely does matter that they receive that No. 1 pick. Even if Davis doesn't pan out how they hope and injuries ravage his career, he still needs to be the guy taken first because he's a big man who has the potential to completely turn the outlook of a team around.
Also, the Bobcats need a player that can give them an advantage at one position, and Davis would provide them a considerable one in league which is currently playing with a center-by-committee ideology.
In certain circumstances, as in this particular case involving the Bobcats, receiving the No. 1 pick is absolutely essential to a team's success. When there is a player out there who is capable of changing the look of your franchise, then getting that No. 1 pick for a team like Charlotte does matter.
However, this isn't a yearly deal. You don't think the Toronto Raptors would like to have 2006 back so they could have LaMarcus Aldridge instead of Andrea Bargnani? What about the Milwaukee Bucks in 2005? Don't you think they'd rather have had the third or fourth pick to draft Chris Paul or Deron Williams instead of Andrew Bogut?
Acquiring that No. 1 pick could be just as much detrimental as it is beneficial. College kids are human too, and they know what pressure feels like. When there is a team purposely losing games and moving around millions of dollars just for you, you're going to feel a little bit of pressure to perform for that franchise.
That's a lot of pressure opposed to a No. 4 pick. Sure, he has the possibility of being a draft bust, but he could also become a role player and no one would notice how disappointing that is. Compare that to a No. 1 pick who must perform from day one and has expectations that are All-Star or bust.
Sometimes it's not always about a player not being able to respond to the fast-paced style of the NBA. This is a mental game, too, and we seem to always forget that. We tend to forget that these kids who are 19 and 20 years old are expected to become the savior of an NBA franchise.
I'm 21 years old and I have no idea the amount of pressure I'd be feeling if I knew the 7-59 Charlotte Bobcats were going to draft me and expect me to bring them out of the basement. Sure, I haven't had thousands of fans surrounding me in college, but the NBA and the NCAA are two completely different games.
Losing the adoration of your fellow alums after a tough loss hurts. Losing the trust of your organization and the fans of that organization hurt more. You're not going to lose millions of dollars and a reputation with a few bad games in college. If you don't perform well in the NBA, you could go from projected All-Star to trade bait in the span of a few weeks.
Acquiring that No. 1 pick is always a boost, but it's not always a necessity. The pressure placed on you and the player you're set to draft are always contributing factors when taking that top overall selection into consideration. There's a lot that rides on the future of your franchise based on who is taken with that pick.
