Sixers vs. Celtics: What Each Team Needs to Do to Win Game 7
The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers will decide in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals Saturday who is flying out to South Beach to take on the Miami Heat and who will be wondering Sunday morning what could have been.
Several important factors for each team will help decide that outcome in Boston, including a much-needed re-charge for the Celtics, the three players for Philadelphia that must play well and the most important quarter of the series.
Below, we break down those keys and the rest of what each team needs to do to win Game 7 of this series and advance to the Eastern Conference finals.
Boston Celtics
Charging the Batteries
There's no understating how important a two-day break between Game 6 and 7 likely is for the Celtics.
During a 82-75 loss in Game 6, Boston looked every part of the older team it is: Things moved slower, the hustle plays weren't being made and the defensive end of the floor was mostly stagnant. The younger and fresher legs of the 76ers ensured this series would return to Boston for Game 7.
The Celtics shouldn't have fatigue as a crutch to fall back on Saturday. The two days in between should do wonders for the likes of Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, older stars whose bodies are starting to wear down.
Even if two days of rest can't solve the Celtics shooting woes (Boston shot just 26-of-78 from the field, 33 percent), this should be a roster that plays with a lot more energy in Game 7. That dynamic alone could be enough to push Boston into the conference finals.
Ride Garnett
The winning formula hasn't been difficult to figure out for the Celtics. Garnett has arguably been the best player on the floor in this series, and neither team has such a sizable mismatch positionally than Garnett vs. the 76ers frontcourt.
The series has beat to the drum of Garnett, whose performances have been tell-tale signs of the Celtics' fortunes during the semifinals.
In the three games Boston has won in this series, Garnett has averaged just over 25 points a game and shot well over 60 percent. The Celtics have been right around the 100-point mark a night in the three victories.
In the three losses, however, Garnett averaged under 15 points a contest and shot well below the 50 percent mark overall. Not surprisingly, the Celtics have averaged a little over 80 a game in their three defeats.
Boston winning Game 7 is much more complicated than Garnett just playing well, but if he can score the basketball and shoot a high percentage tonight, the Celtics have to be the clear favorites to move on.
Philadelphia 76ers
Point Guard Play
No longer is Andre Iguodala the star of the 76ers. That title likely belongs to point guard Jrue Holiday, who may be the one player Philadelphia will count on most tonight to squeeze past the Celtics in Boston.
But Holiday won't be alone—he'll need help from his running mate, Louis Williams.
During Wednesday's Game 6 win over Boston, the point guard combination scored 31 points and dished out 12 assists while controlling the game's tempo. To win in Boston, Holiday and Williams may have to equal or surpass those numbers.
In the 76ers losses in this series, the two point guards haven't played well—especially in Boston. Here's the run down of Philly losses in Boston and how Holiday and Williams fared:
Game 1: Combined for 17 points and four assists. Holiday shot 3-for-13 (including 0-for-4 from three) and scored eight points, while Williams shot 4-for-11 and scored nine. Celtics go up 1-0.
Game 5: Combined for 19 points and nine assists. Holiday shot just 4-for-6 in 36 total minutes, while Williams made 3-of-10 shots and scored nine. Celtics cruise to 16-point win and a 3-2 series lead.
When Holiday and Williams both play well on a given night, the 76ers are a hard team to beat. The Celtics not having Avery Bradley—a defensive ace who has disrupted both Holiday and Williams during this series—could prove to be big absence once again in Game 7.
But if Philadelphia loses, expect the numbers for the two guards to mirror what we've seen already in losses in Boston during this series. Holiday and Williams may control whether this No. 8 seed moves on to the conference finals or goes home.
LaVoy Allen
The dominance of Garnett in Celtics wins is already well-documented, but the 76ers player that could have the biggest say in whether or not Garnett puts up big numbers in Game 7 might be Allen.
According to ESPN's John Hollinger, Allen has been one of the few defenders in this series to contain Garnett.
"He's been the one player that seemingly can neutralize Kevin Garnett's otherwise massive plus-minus advantage. Garnett is plus-55 for the series -- that's plus-58 when Allen is off the court and minus-3 when he's on it. One much-discussed key is Allen's ability to push Garnett further out and contest his shots, and the numbers back that up -- Garnett is 6-of-17 inside 15 feet against Allen and 19-of-26 when he's off the court.
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Hollinger goes on to state the effect on the offensive end, too:
"...the impact has been just as great on the offensive end. The change in Philly's production based on the Allen-Garnett dynamic has been jarring: If Allen plays and Garnett doesn't, the Sixers score 121.2 points per 100 possessions; if both play, it's 103.2; and if it's just Garnett, Philly nets only 78.2.
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Statistical analysis doesn't always have the answers, but in this case, the evidence is pretty overwhelming. Allen has played a big factor in this series despite not always seeing the floor time he might deserve.
Allen played just 19 minutes during Philadelphia's Game 6 win, but Doug Collins may have to up his floor time if the 76ers are to contain Garnett on the road.
Important for Both
After the Break
Finally, we get to the factor that has decided every game of the series thus far: the third quarter.
In each of the six games, the team that has won the third quarter has went on to win the game. Here's the quick synopsis:
In Game 1, the Celtics outscored Philly by one point, and then went on to win the game by a single point, 92-91.
In Game 2, the 76ers went on a 21-11 run during the third quarter that allowed them to erase a half time deficit and absorbed the Celtics' late run in the fourth. Philadelphia won, 82-81.
In Game 3, Boston opened up a 29-17 advantage in the third and then cruised to a 107-91 win.
In Game 4, Philadelphia outscored the Celtics by a 28-17 mark to help chip into a big Boston lead in the first half. The 76ers then blew out the Celtics in the fourth to knot the series.
In Game 5, Boston built a big lead thanks to a 28-16 advantage in the third quarter. The 76ers never recovered and the Celtics won, 101-85.
In Game 6, the 76ers secured a four-point fourth quarter lead thanks to a 27-20 run in the third. Philadelphia would end up winning by seven, 82-75.
As we've learned during these NBA playoffs—check out the Heat-Pacers series if you don't agree—the third quarter may be the most important period of every postseason game. Games have been won and lost by how teams have come out of the halftime locker room.
I wouldn't expect that dynamic to change Saturday night in Boston, as the likely winner of this series will play the best in Game 7's third quarter.
