Penn State Football: Don't Expect Too Much from Bill O'Brien Immediately

Fresh air is all around State College with the Bill O'Brien regime set to kick off this fall, but even the most optimistic Penn State fans should have reserved expectations for the Nittany Lions this fall.

It would be unfair to compare and contrast coaching changes at Penn State, seeing as the last change was made in 1960, when the game was much different than what we know today. Instead, let us look elsewhere.

Take a look around the Big Ten to see how some coaching transitions developed. For the purposes of this conversation, we will excuse Luke Fickell for the 2011 season at Ohio State, but how did Jim Tressel do in his first season? Ohio State was 8-4 in the final season of the John Cooper era, and Tressel only managed seven wins in his first season in Columbus. Of course, Tressel would go on to turn the Buckeyes in to a national title contender and a perennial favorite in the Big Ten. But he could not just flip a switch right out of the shoot.

Last season, Michigan was very successful in their first season with a new head coach, with Brady Hoke taking over for Rich Rodriguez. In one season, Hoke won more games than Rodriguez did in a single season and won one more bowl game than his predecessor did in three seasons. Everything about Rodriguez's stint at Michigan was a disaster, such as winning just three games in his first year on the job after replacing Lloyd Carr. Carr also won one more game in his first year as head coach replacing Gary Moeller in 1995.

Over at Nebraska, Bo Pelini had four more wins in his first season as head coach than Bill Callahan had in his final season in Lincoln. Callahan also recorded half as many wins as his predecessor, Frank Solich.

What about the whole idea that suggests replacing a legendary coach is one of the least envious tasks in the coaching game?

Solich managed to hold his own at Nebraska, winning nine games a year after taking over for Tom Osborne at Nebraska. At Alabama, Paul "Bear" Bryant's final season ended with eight wins in 1982. Ray Perkins took over the following season, equaling that win total. In South Bend, Indiana, the pressure is always on the head coach to make Notre Dame a national contender. Bob Davie followed Lou Holtz by recording one less win than Holtz's final season. Gerry Faust had a disappointing 5-6 record in his first season following Dan Devine, and Devine had just eight wins in his first year on the job following Ara Parseghian.

The ultimate tall order to fill at Notre Dame came when Hunk Anderson had to follow in the shoes of Knute Rockne, who ended his time at Notre Dame with a 10-0 record after a 9-0 record. Anderson went 6-2-1 in his first year on the job.

Penn State would have to win 10 games this season in order for Bill O'Brien's first year as head coach to be better than last season. Fortunately, O'Brien may have the ingredients to surprise some folks this season, and if things start well, then 10 wins may not be a great stretch.

The measuring stick for what will define a successful season may not have been written and may be up for a little bit of debate. Should Penn State legitimately be considered a Big Ten title contender, making anything less than an appearance in the Big Ten championship game a failure? Or is this season more about making progress in a new offensive system, and as long as players seem to be adjusting as the year goes, that should be considered success?

Looking at the way this team is set up right now, it looks as though Penn State will have a solid running game and front seven on defense, if everyone stays healthy. There are concerns at quarterback and in the secondary, but the special teams may be decent as well. A new coaching staff could need time to gel with the players, but the energy is high on the team. The schedule, while difficult, will assure fans that their team will be battle tested by the time conference play opens up.

Penn State showed its shortcomings against Nebraska and Wisconsin last year in the regular season and against Houston in the TicketCity Bowl. How much can it close the gap, and can it avoid slipping up against non-conference competition?

This all remains to be seen, of course, but should be kept in mind as fans start thinking big with the new head coach. O'Brien may lead the Nittany Lions to some great years ahead, but an immediate run to the BCS Championship game should not be on the agenda for the 2012 season. Like all great coaches, it can take time to get there.

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