UFC 146: Questions We Have About Cain Velasquez

When it was first announced that Frank Mir would supplant a testosterone-laden Alistair Overeem opposite Junior Dos Santos at UFC 146, the most pressing question we had regarding Cain Velasquez was who his next opponent would be.

That little query was settled when news broke that Antonio Silva would slide into the void left by Mir and contest the former heavyweight champ that same night.

While the curiosity of Velasquez's opponent has long since been sated there are still a few questions to be asked.

Here, we will take a look at those questions and see what they mean for Velasquez as he heads into battle this weekend. 

1. Can His Chin Hold Up in the Heavyweight Division?

It may be a bit critical to determine that Velasquez has a glass jaw just because he was knocked out by the power punching heavyweight champion.

On one hand, few fighters have been able to produce a dissimilar result. On the other hand, Cain was barely able to last a minute against Dos Santos.

When we add into the equation the scares suffered by Velasquez in his 2009 bout against Cheick Kongo we can determine that Cain's chin is certainly not beyond question.

So will it hold up? Is it really a problem, or has he more or less exhibited normal symptoms of being punched by men who make a living out of punching people? Will we get an answer this Saturday?

Though the sample size is minute it does seem that Velasquez's chin is suspect. The underwhelming win over Kongo and the crushing defeat by Dos Santos support this, while there is little evidence to refute it.

Never has Velasquez eaten a clean punch by a big puncher and shrugged it off.

His UFC 146 opponent, Antonio Silva, hits pretty hard and it is not inconceivable that Velasquez's chin will indeed be tested this weekend. 

Whether he passes or fails that test may ultimately decide the outcome of the fight. 

2. Is He Really an Elite Fighter?

Cain has beat a handful of opponents who at the time of the match were considered very dangerous. These same opponents subsequently have been termed overrated, over-hyped and over the hill. 

Cheick Kongo, Brock Lesnar and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira fit each category quite nicely, and those three wins are arguably the three biggest of Cain's career.

So actually how important are those wins in retrospect?

After being defeated by Velasquez, Lesnar, Kongo and Nogueira went on to post a 4-4-1 record. Lesnar retired, Nogueira cannot be far behind and Kongo seems destined to remain a gatekeeper for all eternity.

Is he an elite fighter then?

Well, he has some serious wrestling credentials, a well-rounded MMA game, cardio for days and a 9-1 professional record including a 7-1 record inside the world's toughest promotion. His only loss came against a guy who hasn't lost in five years and who has defeated every man he has ever fought.

Furthermore, it is not all together fair to discount the value of a win because of what happens afterward. At least, it is not fair to totally discount it.

So even if the fundamental basis for raising Velasquez's star is on shaky ground, the basis for defaming him is really nonexistent. 

Until there is more evidence to the contrary, Cain deserves the reputation he has.

For anyone firmly holding to the adverse opinion, you must only wait a few days until validation. Then you can break out a hearty "I told you so."

3. How Will He React to the First Loss of His Career?

It often seems as though a fighter's first loss is a blessing in disguise. Losing dispels complacency, demands evolution and grows humility. Many highly regarded fighters who began their careers by steamrolling competition, then suffered defeat have returned better and more hungry than ever before.

On the other hand, some guys wilt. Finding out that you aren't invincible can be scary. And this isn't just part of the fight game, this is universal competition.

So what can we expect from Cain?

Nothing really. Why should we expect anything? We can speculate, but the only answer to the question of how he will return is embedded in empirical evidence—evidence that will not exist until this weekend.

For now, I'll throw you an unsatisfactory, "we'll have to wait and see," on this one.  

4. What Does a Win This Weekend Do for Him?

Among the names that circulated during the Overeem replacement guessing game was Velasquez's. This in itself is suggestive of what a win does for him.

That is not to say a win Saturday night undoubtedly brings forth a title shot, but it does mean that the opportunity to challenge for UFC gold isn't all that far off.

With a victory over Silva, Velasquez may be one win away from a second chance at capturing the heavyweight crown.

An impressive, decisive victory means that he may not even have to wait that long.

5. What Does a Loss This Weekend Do for Him?

Bad things, my friends. Terrible, unspeakable, horrifying things.

Velasquez is still relatively new to the fight game and a loss to Silva does not remove him from relevancy entirely, but is does discredit his status as an elite fighter in a big way.

If he is knocked out, an opinion that he has insufficient ability to take damage will prevail. 

If he is submitted, it will appear that he has nowhere to hide—weak chin and sub-par grappling.

If he is decisioned, he will still be removed from his pedestal.

A loss means that not only does Silva leapfrog him in the line for a title shot, but so too do most of Saturday night's heavyweight winners. Throw in the probable arrival of Daniel Cormier and the possible arrival of Josh Barnett and suddenly reclaiming the championship seems more like a pipe dream than a realistic possibility.

At least for the near future.

It is not inconceivable that Velasquez loses this fight and eventually claws his way back to the top. But the top of the heavyweight ladder is about to become very crowded and the climb back up will be neither quick nor easy.

Velasquez will endure years of grief if he fails to take out Antonio Silva at UFC 146.