Preakness 2012: Predicting How Top Finishers Will Do at the Belmont Stakes

If the 2012 Belmont Stakes is anything like this year's Kentucky Derby and Preakness, we're in for one hell of a show.

Like the Derby, the Preakness featured plenty of drama from start to finish, as the explosive Bodemeister controlled the pace before being run down yet again by I'll Have Another.

Creative Cause also challenged Bodemeister early, but he couldn't keep up with the two top horses. After holding on to second place through the first three quarters of the race, he fell behind to claim third place, finishing 8.75 lengths behind Bodemeister.

Here are the complete payouts from the 2012 Preakness:

Horse	Win	Place	Show
1. I'll Have Another	8.40	3.80	2.80
2. Bodemeister		3.20	2.80
3. Creative Cause			3.60

Now, our attention is turned to the Belmont Stakes (Saturday, June 9), where I'll Have Another will look to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.

How will he and the other big-name horses do? Let's examine.

Bodemeister

Unfortunately for horse racing fans, trainer Bob Baffert announced that the quick-starting Bodemeister will not participate in the Belmont.

It isn't clear if the horse is injured or not, but one would assume that Bodemeister's sprinting style had something to do with the decision. The Belmont is the longest leg of the Triple Crown (1.5 miles), and since Bodemeister faded late in the first two legs, he likely wouldn't contend in the grueling race known as the "Test of the Champion."

It's really a shame for Bodemeister. The horse that was just several yards away from winning the Derby and the Preakness will now be at home as I'll Have Another goes for the Triple Crown.

Creative Cause

Creative Cause has been overshadowed by the top two horses in this age group, but he's strung together a solid series of races.

He had a decent chance to win the Preakness before fading to finish third, and his decent fifth-place finish at the Derby was his only off-the-board performance in 10 career starts. Creative Cause also won recently, taking the title in the Grade 2 San Felipe in March.

Unfortunately, he may not be in the Belmont field as well. Trainer Mike Harrington said there is a "50-50" chance that Creative Cause runs in the race.

If he does compete, I'm expecting a top-three finish from the horse.

I'll Have Another

We haven't had a Triple Crown winner in 34 years, and in that time frame, 11 horses have won the first two legs before failing at the Belmont.

Despite those facts, I love I'll Have Another's chances. He surged late in the Derby and the Preakness, so his style should be perfectly suited for the 1.5-mile Belmont track.

Although history isn't on their side, I'm expecting I'll Have Another and jockey Mario Gutierrez to achieve legendary status by winning the Belmont and completing the Triple Crown.