Atlanta Falcons 2012 Playoff Approach: What Needs to Change?

Mike Smith has directed quite the turnaround in Atlanta since becoming the Falcons head coach in 2008: four consecutive winning seasons, an NFC South title and a collective 43-21 regular season record are just a few of his long list of achievements. 

Still absent from that list, however, is a postseason win.

Carrying an 0-3 playoff record heading into the 2012 season, Smith recently told a local Atlanta radio station that he’s considering changing his playoff approach this year (via NFL.com):  

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"Well obviously we have to do it different than what we've done in the past," Smith said via SportsRadioInterviews.com. "We've been there, we just haven’t been very successful. So it starts with me in evaluating how I prepare our football team, or we as a coaching staff prepare our football team. And believe me, we've done some soul searching. When you go to the places that we've been and not have the success that you want in those situations, it's tough. And I know everybody's disappointed, but nobody's more disappointed than I am -- I can assure you that."

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Four consecutive winning seasons is great, but it means little if there isn’t any playoff success at the end of it.

Mike Smith knows that. It's why he's considering changing his playoff approach this year. 

But what needs to change, exactly?

Simple: aggressiveness. A lot more of it.

No, not on fourth down.  We all know he's proven to be quite the aggressor then. When it comes to the first three, however, it's been a different story.

Under Smith, the Falcons have generally seemed to be content to control the clock, not getting beat deep, and most importantly converting third downs.

That works great when applied to over-matched teams, but the postseason is no time to be playing conservatively on offense and sitting back comfortably in zone on defense.

It’s kill or be killed, and the Falcons don’t yet seem to be playing under that mindset.  

It’s what separates the New Orleans Saints, the Green Bay Packers, and the New England Patriots of the league from the rest of the teams.

They play to win.

The Falcons play not to lose.

Don’t believe me? Out of all of last year’s playoff teams, the Falcons were second only to the Baltimore Ravens in regular season third-down attempts with 244 (seventh-highest overall in the league).

While the Falcons managed to convert 44 percent of those (sixth-best in the league), the fact remains that they didn’t move the chains on first or second down as often as the other playoff teams.

That signals either a lack of execution or conservative game-planning. Considering those statistics are over the course of 16 games, my money’s on the latter.

The Falcons live on their ability to convert third downs. They lose when they don't, and that's certainly been true in the playoffs. In Smith's three postseason losses, the Falcons converted a collective 34 percent of their third down attempts.   

It’s a similar story on defense, where Atlanta allowed opponents to convert 44.1 percent of their third down attempts last season—29th-worst in the league. Playing the same soft zones in a 3-3-5 alignment on most of those attempts obviously didn't help in that regard.

If the Falcons ever hope to become elite, they'll have to stop aiming for third-down-and-short situations and instead start looking to move the chains on first. A stingy third-down defense wouldn't hurt, either.

Fortunately, a change in coordinators may just be the difference for Atlanta this year. New defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has never shied away from blitzing and using man-to-man coverage, and on the other side of the ball, Dirk Koetter’s four-vertical offense may finally give the Falcons the chance to be threats to score from anywhere on the field.  

Yes, the Falcons may still come out empty handed come February, and that’s if they even make the postseason in the first place.

After all, aggressiveness doesn’t guarantee victory.  

But it’s certainly worth the risk when the Super Bowl’s on the line.