2012 Preakness Post Positions: Examining How Draw Affects Favorites
The 2012 Preakness Stakes is up for grabs. There are just two clear-cut favorites in I'll Have Another and Bodemeister, but I don't think anyone will be shocked if neither takes the win.
This means something small could be the deciding factor in the race, and post position will definitely play a part in the outcome.
Check out how the post position will affect the four favorites for this race—post positions for the entire field can be found at the bottom.
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*Odds via VegasInsider.com
Post 9: I'll Have Another, 3-1
Since 1972, just one horse has won the Preakness starting from the ninth post. That came in 2003 with Funny Cide. That certainly is not a good track record of success, but it is one that I'll Have Another can overcome.
I'll Have Another's strength is in his finishing kick. This was clearly on display at the Kentucky Derby as he charged down the homestretch, passing all horses to take home his big win.
Getting out of the gate is not a big concern for this colt, and he showed he can handle traffic. While this position did him no favors, it is not going to hurt him either.
Post 7: Bodemeister, 3-1
Bodemeister has the speed that makes his post position fairly irrelevant. That said, I think this colt would have been better served closer to the rail. That would leave him with a straight shot to the front of the pack.
This colt was lightning out of the gate at the Derby and left all others in his wake for much of the race. At one point, he had a three-length lead.
Bodemeister is the kind of horse that always likes to start off strong and tries to build up an insurmountable lead. This certainly isn't impossible from No. 7; it just is a slightly longer route to the front.
This position has had plenty of success. Since 1995, four winners have started here.
Post 6: Creative Cause, 8-1
This is a nice spot for Creative Cause. He finished fifth at the Derby but looked strong in doing so. His biggest problem was that he got stuck in traffic and couldn't get out of it.
He wound up taking a long and winding road to the finish line, meaning he had to run much further than most horses. He was still able to maintain his speed and finish near the leaders.
The sixth spot should allow him a fairly unencumbered route to the rail and allow him to set himself up for a big finishing kick.
Since 1996, three winners have come from this position.
Post 5: Went the Day Well, 12-1
Went the Day Well struggled mightily coming out of the gate at the Derby. He clipped heels coming out of the gate and found more obstacles as he tried to get into position for the first turn.
Eventually, jockey John Velazquez was able to steady him, and he charged hard to finish in fourth.
He should have a much easier go out of the gate here. The field is much smaller, and he has a fairly short route to get over to the rail.
Last year's winner, Shackleford, started from the fifth post.
Post Positions
*Post Positions according to NJ.com
*Odds via VegasInsider.com
| 1. | Tiger Walk | K. Desormeaux | 20-1 |
| 2. | Teeth of the Dog | J. Bravo | 20-1 |
| 3. | Pretension | J. Santiago | 25-1 |
| 4. | Zetterholm | J. Alvarado | 20-1 |
| 5. | Went the Day Well | J. Velazquez | 12-1 |
| 6. | Creative Cause | J. Rosario | 8-1 |
| 7. | Bodemeister | M. Smith | 3-1 |
| 8. | Daddy Nose Best | J. Leparoux | N/A |
| 9. | I'll Have Another | M. Gutierrez | 3-1 |
| 10. | Optimizer | C. Nakatani | 12-1 |
| 11. | Cozzetti | J. Lezcano | 20-1 |
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