Who Gets Back to a BCS Championship Game First, Florida or Florida State?

Florida and Florida State have been so successful in the 14-year history of the BCS that only once have both teams been left completely out of the BCS equation in consecutive seasons.

The rare dry spell came very recently when both the 2010-11 and 2011-12 BCS matchups were devoid of both the Seminoles and Gators.

The two teams have been so prolific since the BCS replaced the Bowl Alliance for the 1998 season that one or both have participated in 10 of 14 BCS fueled postseasons and five of the 14 BCS title games played thus far.

Overall, the two combine for a 6-6 BCS record and are 3-2 in championship play, a number that needs to be further quantified by pointing out that Florida is 5-1 overall and 2-0 in the title game, while Florida State is 1-5 overall and 1-2 in the championship contest.

But, the truth is Florida State hasn’t ascended to the title game since the 2000 season, and though Florida last drank from the chalice of ultimate victory in 2008-09, it look a long way off from a triumphant return to glory.

So, which of the two schools from the Sunshine State will be back in title town first?

The following slideshow weighs seven crucial variables to ultimately make a case for who will rise up to the BCS title game before the other, Florida or Florida State.

 

Recent Success

Though what happened last year is never completely indicative of what will happen next year, past performance simply can’t be ignored even in a sport as fluid as college football.

The approach is fairly simple: Does Florida or Florida State have the longer road back?

Florida

The Gators went 7-6 last season, and though they played well defensively, their offensive numbers were ugly, especially relative to expectations.

Florida ranked a dismal No. 71 nationally in scoring offense, No. 73 in rushing yards and a dismal No. 89 in passing yards.

If there ever is a silver lining in six losses, the Gators’ defeats were all at the hands of ranked teams (Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, Florida State and South Carolina), which also means their wins weren’t necessarily impressive (FAU, UAB , Tennessee, Kentucky, Vandy, FCS Furman and Ohio State in the Gator Bowl).

Though returning starter numbers really only have a bearing on the 2012 season, the Gators bring back a whopping 18 experienced players next year, which is No. 2 in the SEC and No. 8 nationally.

Florida State

The ‘Noles went 9-4 last season and did everything relatively well (they smoked defensively, ranking No. 4 nationally in scoring D) except for running the ball, where they rated No. 104 nationally.

Florida State beat everyone it was supposed to (ULM, FCS Charleston Southern, Duke, Maryland, NC State, Boston College) and then scored big wins over Miami FL, Florida and Notre Dame in the Champs Sports Bowl.

A string of early losses to Oklahoma, Clemson and Wake Forest cost Florida State an opportunity to win their division and therefore a chance to ascend to the BCS via an appearance in the ACC title game (both Clemson and Virginia Tech went instead).

The Seminoles bring back 15 starters in 2012, earning them the No. 6 spot in the ACC and the No. 44 position overall.

The Edge

Even though Florida brings back more starters in the short-term equation of next season, overall, the numbers (and frankly, the on-field performance) point to the Seminoles in terms of who is the team that is ready to win now.

Florida State has less on-field problems to solve and has enjoyed more recent (not long-term) success, which gives it the edge in this category.

Advantage: Florida State

 

Recruiting

In the past five seasons, no team has risen to the BCS title game that DID NOT have both a senior class that was recruited as a Top 15 group AND a junior class that ranked in the Top 22.

This is proof positive that recruiting has a huge impact on who will, and who will not, play in the BCS title game (especially in our current pre-playoff environment).

Using the past five years recruiting rankings provided by Rivals.com, we’ll pit Florida against Florida State and see who has the edge.

Florida

2008: No. 3

2009: No. 11

2010: No. 2

2011: No. 12

2012: No. 3

Average Ranking: 6.2

Florida State

2008: No. 9

2009: No. 7

2010: No. 10

2011: No. 2

2012: No. 6

Average Ranking: 6.8

The Edge

The good news for both these fanbases is that their respective programs recruit to a level that literally oozes with BCS title game potential.

Yes, if recruiting is a key component to making a run at a national championship, Florida and Florida State have their feet firmly planted in the starter block.

Though these teams are literally neck-in-neck in recruiting, it’s Florida that has the advantage in consistently bringing in the highest classes, a claim, which is illustrated by its three Top 5 rated classes in five years vs. Florida State’s one.

Advantage: Florida

 

Coaching Stability

The truth is, both Florida and Florida State have relatively new head coaches, and both are led by guys who are enjoying their first head job at any level.

The ‘Noles Jimbo Fisher got the nod at Florida State in 2010, while wonder boy Will Muschamp moved to Gainesville for the 2011 season.

The major difference between the two, other than the one-year advantage Fisher enjoys, is the fact that Jimbo Fisher joined the Florida State staff back in 2007 as the OC and then the “head coach in waiting” under Bobby Bowden.

Fisher has therefore been a Seminole for five seasons, while Muschamp has only one season under his belt, making it fairly logical that FSU has the advantage in terms of a coach that understands the overall climate of the program he leads.

And that wide-reaching statement includes important factors such as conference home, opponents, recruiting, etc. etc.

Advantage: Florida State

Tracking the Last Three Seasons

As in the case of very recent success, tracking longer term past performance can only tell us so much, especially given the personnel turnover that’s inherent in college football.

But that said, looking at trends in major statistical categories and wins/losses can tell us where a program has been and then perhaps opens a window to where they might be headed.

Florida

Overall Results 

2009: 13-1, SEC East Champs, lost to Alabama in the SEC title game, beat Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl

2010: 8-5, beat Penn State in the Outback Bowl

2011: 7-6, beat Ohio State in the Gator Bowl

Offense

2009: scored 35.9 points per game, ranked No. 10 nationally

2010: scored 29.8 points per game, ranked No. 43 nationally

2011: scored 25.5 points per game, ranked No. 71 nationally

Defense

2009: allowed 12.3 points per game, ranked No. 4 nationally

2010: allowed 21.3 points per game, ranked No. 29 nationally

2011: allowed 20.3 points per game, ranked No. 20 nationally

Florida State

Overall Results 

2009: 7-6, beat West Virgina in the Gator Bowl

2010: 10-4, ACC Atlantic Champs, lost to Virginia Tech in the ACC title game, beat South Carolina in the Peach Bowl

2011: 9-4, beat Notre Dame in the Champs Sports Bowl

Offense

2009: scored 30.1 points per game, ranked No. 32 nationally

2010: scored 31.4 points per game, ranked No. 33 nationally

2011: scored 30.6 points per game, ranked No. 39 nationally

Defense

2009: allowed 30.0 points per game, ranked No. 94 nationally

2010: allowed 19.6 points per game, ranked No. 20 nationally

2011: allowed 15.1 points per game, ranked No. 4 nationally

The Edge

This statistical presentation paints a fairly clear picture that Florida State is trending slightly upwards (especially defensively), while Florida is continuing a slow downward spiral (especially offensively).

Though the numbers don’t lie, they also don’t foretell of definite future glory for the Seminoles and sure demise for the Gators.

If nothing else, these stats provide further evidence that, at least on paper, Florida has a longer road back to a BCS title game than does Florida State.  

Advantage: Florida State

 

Past BCS Success

The topic of past BCS successes and failures becomes more crucial as college football moves towards a mini-playoff in the form of a four team scheme.

Now suddenly, you can get there based on past merit, but you actually have to win an additional game to reach the title contest, meaning that it matters how you’ve done in the past.

This is an area where Florida far and away outshines Florida State in a statistical stomping.

The Gators are 5-1 overall in BCS play and 2-0 in championship games, while Florida State is just 1-5 all-time in the BCS and 1-2 in the title arena.

Advantage: Florida

 

Conference/Division Affiliation

The current divisional and conference homes of the two teams in question is absolutely crucial in determining which team can make it back to the BCS title game first.

On one hand, you’ve got Florida State, who plays in the ACC Atlantic, and on the other, you’ve got Florida who plays in the SEC East.

Both teams have to first win their division and then a conference championship to remain perfect and theoretically, ascend to the national title game, but in reality, the equality of the situation ends there.

The Gators have to best Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and now Missouri in their division, best a couple of SEC West foes (umm…LSU, Texas A&M, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State) and then win it all in the conference title game against the best of the West (which hasn’t happened since 2008).

The ‘Noles have to contend with Clemson, NC State, Maryland, Boston College and Wake Forest, deal with rotating ACC Coastal foes that could include Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech (they play Miami (Fla.) regularly) and then they have to win the conference title game.

Sure, the ACC can be tough and yes it’s no picnic, but, at the end of the day, Florida’s road will always be a more difficult journey than will that facing Florida State.

Everything changes if Florida State makes a move to the Big 12 (as has been recently rumored), but until that time, the Seminoles have an advantage over Florida in terms of ease of conference opponents.  

Advantage: Florida State

 

Strength of Known Upcoming Non-Conference Opponents

Another approach to predicting who gets in position to play for the crystal football first can be garnered by looking at opponents outside of the conference which are often scheduled years in advance.

These are the “other” teams the Gators and Seminoles will have to beat to remain perfect and find themselves playing for the big enchilada.

Again, who has the more difficult road to BCS pay dirt?

Florida

Non-conference opponents currently scheduled:

2012: Bowling Green, UL Lafayette, FCS Jacksonville State, Florida State

2013: Toledo, Miami (Fla.), FCS Georgia Southern, Florida State

2014: Idaho, Eastern Michigan, FCS Eastern Kentucky, Florida State

2015: New Mexico State, Florida State, FAU

2016: UMass, North Texas, Florida State

TBA: USF

Florida State

Non-conference opponents currently scheduled:

2012: FCS Murray State, FCS Savannah State, USF, Florida

2013: FCS Wofford, Nevada, Florida

2014: FCS Citadel, Florida

2015: Texas State, FCS Chattanooga, Florida

Though these schedules obviously are far from being complete, Florida is the only one of the two who has a non-conference BCS team scheduled, other than USF, beyond their regular grudge match with the other.

This comes from via the Gators’ Sept. 7, 2013 scheduled meeting at Miami (Fla.).

Beyond that, Florida State seems clearly committed to schedule FCS opponents on a yearly basis.

Overall, the Seminoles have a very early (and decidedly slight) lead on the Gators in terms of ease of non-conference foes, and when you combine this with the ACC vs. the SEC regular schedule, Florida State has the easier road to perfection and the BCS.

Advantage: Florida State

 

Who Gets There First?

Though our seven-point thesis is hardly comprehensive, it’s fairly clear, at least on paper, that Florida State is more likely to be BCS title game-bound before Florida.

The ‘Noles are in the midst of a upward trend. They have been more successful recently, they’ve still managed to haul in some top-tier recruiting classes and their slate of opponents is easier than that of Florida’s.

The Gators, on the other hand, haven’t proven that they are on the path back to dominance, they have a coach that’s totally new and unproven and they play in the SEC, which is currently the toughest conference in the game.

The wild card in this analysis is Florida’s very proven recruiting pipe that has provided the sort of talent that only the very elite teams in college football enjoy. Add to this the fact that the Gators have historically won big in the BCS (vs. Florida State’s dismal record), and you’ve got a possible winning cocktail.

If the Gators could, once again, meld all of their gifted athletes together into a cohesive, winning team, then they could be back up the charts before you could motion a “chomp” or even a “tomahawk chop.”

To The BCS Championship Game First: Florida State