2012 Preakness Post Positions: Poor Draw Would Ruin I'll Have Another's Chances

It wouldn't be fair to take anything away from I'll Have Another's surprising Kentucky Derby victory, but to say that everything went in his favor would certainly be an accurate statement. Chief among them was his post position, and he'll need another advantageous draw on Wednesday.

As a horse that prefers to make his move late, I'll Have Another is much better suited to an outside spot than something inside or in the middle. He drew the 19th of 20 positions for the Kentucky Derby and that obviously went well for him as he was able to sit in a comfortable spot for the majority of the race before making a charge in the latter stages.

Had I'll Have Another started in one of the first couple spots, it is highly unlikely that he would have had such a perfect run. He would have either been forced to go to the front, which isn't his forte by any means, or he would have gotten stuck in traffic and been a virtual non-factor.

While his draw may not be quite as pressing in the Preakness Stakes since the field is significantly smaller than the 20-horse Kentucky Derby, there is no question that I'll Have Another's handlers would much rather be somewhere near the outside, or in the middle at worst, because an inside slot could prove disastrous.

In addition to a tailor-made post draw, I'll Have Another was the beneficiary of Bodemeister setting an unsustainable pace in the Kentucky Derby. Bodemeister is a horse that loves to get out and run from the opening gun, but he set a lightning-fast pace and had some of the best splits that the Kentucky Derby had ever seen over the early part of the race.

With that said, it came as no surprise that Bodemeister tired and eventually relinquished the lead. I'll Have Another was the best of the late breakers, but he didn't put up great times by any means. He simply was in the right place at the right time and had the right circumstances develop around him.

It's something that many have said, but I tend to agree as I don't believe I'll Have Another is a Triple Crown-caliber horse. Obviously, he already has the first and most prestigious gem under his belt, but there is nothing particularly explosive about I'll Have Another and his pedigree and past record pale in comparison to Bodemeister.

If Bodemeister is able to get to the front early like he did in the Kentucky Derby, I simply can't see him losing this time. Jockey Mike Smith is now fully aware of Bodemeister's limitation and there is no doubt that the Hall of Famer will pace him much better. If I'll Have Another starts near the outside again then perhaps he will be able to give him a run, but failing that, this is Bodemeister's race to lose.

Even if I'll Have Another gets the position he prefers, it won't necessarily mean that he'll win. If he has to start in one of the first couple spots, though, he'll be in dire straits. Because of the way I'll Have Another won the Kentucky Derby, it seems as though he is very dependent on outside factors and I doubt the perfect storm will come up twice in two weeks.

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter