NBA Playoffs 2012: Upstart Pacers Have the Talent to Shock Heat

The biggest mismatch of Round 2 in the NBA playoffs according to fans has to be the Miami Heat vs. the Indiana Pacers, right?

Wrong.

The Pacers have flown under the radar for the entire season because they play in a small market, but make no mistake, this is a team more than capable of shocking an overly confident Heat squad.

With an NBA-best 31-5 mark at home with the home-court advantage, this is clearly the Heat’s series to win.

So why do I think the Pacers can push the Heat to seven games and possibly even win the series?

1. Height Disparity

All-Star center Roy Hibbert is 7'2", much larger than the bigs for Miami.

He shot an efficient 53 percent against Orlando because he excels at keeping the ball above his head to shield it from smaller defenders. This is going to be a problem for the 6'10" Chris Bosh.

While Joel Anthony is a serviceable rebounder, he won’t be able to stop Hibbert when he has the ball in the paint. LeBron James will be forced to help out down low on more than one occasion.  

With the ultra-experienced David West to deal with, not to mention Tyler Hansbrough (30 free-throw attempts in 90 regular-season minutes against Miami this year) bringing terrific energy off the bench, there is no question the Pacers have a strong advantage inside.

2. Three-Point Shooting

Fun fact: Six players on the Pacers who reside in Frank Vogel’s nine-man rotation shoot 36 percent or better from behind the arc. The team finished sixth in three-point accuracy, and on the other end of the spectrum, only four other teams allowed a higher three-point percentage than the Heat.

The Pacers can stretch the floor and keep notorious gamblers like Dwyane Wade at bay by making him stay at home on players like Paul George, Danny Granger and Leandro Barbosa.

If the Pacers can continue to hit three-point shots with a high efficiency rate, the Heat defense will be in big trouble.

3. Point Guards

The George Hill and Darren Collison combination is going to give Miami fits.

While Mario Chalmers performed well against the likes of Baron Davis and Mike Bibby in Round 1, expect his success to stop against the Pacers.

Hill has a Spurs pedigree, which means he takes the correct angles to cut off penetration and doesn’t leave his feet. Offensively, he averaged over 14 points in Round 1 as a prolific mid-range jump shooter.

Collison is fresh off dishing out 23 assists to only one turnover against the Magic, and that would be perfect for the Pacers if he could repeat that once again. The pressure defense of the Heat leads to plenty of easy fast-break points, and if Indiana can keep it a half-court game, there is no reason to believe they won’t be in this series for the long haul.

Prediction

The Pacers are a more balanced team, and they have multiple components that are matchup nightmares for Miami.

This is not going to be a sweep.

But the combination of Wade and James is incredibly tough to keep down for seven games, and the Pacers are too short on experience to upset the odds-on favorites to win the title.

The Heat will survive, but the Pacers are going to give them all they can handle.

Heat in seven games

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