Words with Frenz AFC East Mailbag, May 11 Edition

The Jets have no filter. The Patriots have no needs. The Bills have no deep threat. The Dolphins have no idea who their starting quarterback is.

The NFL has no offseason. 

Time for more Words With Frenz. Let's get right to it.

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@ErikFrenz what will the #Bills do about finding another WR weapon for Fitzpatrick? Who's opposite of Stevie Johnson? #WordsWithFrenz

— Matt Wincherauk (@TheMattyWin) May 10, 2012"

The numbers are quite appalling, Matt.

• As a team, the Bills averaged 10.8 yards per reception, the fifth-lowest average in the NFL.
• The Bills averaged 6.7 yards per attempt, ranking 21st in the NFL.
• Only one other receiver had a higher yards per reception than Stevie Johnson (NaamanRoosevelt, 16 receptions for 257 yards and 16.1 yards per reception)

More explosive plays are needed, for sure. But where are they going to come from?

Adding T.J. Graham may help, but the Bills shouldn't be expecting big returns out of a rookie wide receiver, especially one taken in the third round.

Call me crazy, but the trickle-down effect of a balanced attack could help the Bills be more explosive on offense. The lack of big plays became increasingly evident when Fred Jackson was shelved with injury, so his return should help. 

While big plays are necessary in the passing game, that doesn't mean you have to heave up 20-yard passes every down. A 10-yard pass that gets taken for an extra 10 yards is just as good, and that's likely how the Bills will look to move the ball.

"

@ErikFrenz who will be/should be fins starting qb week 1?

— Allen (@allen21howard) May 11, 2012"

An interesting point of discussion that's been the topic for at least one article of mine, and probably more to come as details pour forth.

As I discussed in that article, I would put my money on David Garrard, simply because of his copious starting experience. Matt Moore has some experience of his own, but his has been a bit more inconsistent and he's only won a starting job in camp once—for the Panthers against Jimmy Clausen at that.

Garrard has gotten it done for years with lesser talent at receiver, and although the Jaguars had a devastating running game with Garrard at the helm, his ability to throw to less-heralded receivers will be one he can draw upon with the Dolphins, who also feature a slew of also-rans at receiver.

Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill can't be completely counted out of the discussion just yet, though the Dolphins would be wise to take their time with the youngster. Trends suggest that a majority of quarterbacks taken in the top 10 (as of 2003) have been Week 1 starters, and Tannehill himself has said that there's a lot of carryover between the Texas A&M playbook and the Dolphins playbook.

But knowing the offense isn't the only hurdle Tannehill has to clear. There's a big step up from the competition he saw at A&M and what he'll face week-to-week in the NFL. He's also very new to the position, having only started 19 games in college. Knowing the playbook isn't going to help him read a defense and isn't going to help his mechanics.

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@ErikFrenz How do you see the #Patriots WRs shaking out after Welker & Lloyd (assuming they are 1/2)? Rotation, or clear #3? #HairyMailBag

— Josh Moore (@4for4_Josh) May 11, 2012"

To be honest, Josh, I don't see how it shakes out. Beyond Welker and Lloyd, I don't see any "locks" for a No. 3, or even a No. 4, option at receiver.

Jabar Gaffney would be my best guess as a No. 3 or 4. He has the experience factor on his side and is coming off one of his most productive seasons in his career in a year in which he had a combination of Rex Grossman and John Beck throwing the ball while also being covered by a team's best cornerback. He should have an easier time catching passes from his old pal Tom Brady and also getting open against less talented corners.

Beyond that, it's a total crapshoot. Does Donte Stallworth build off his success in McDaniels' offense in 2007? Can Anthony Gonzalez stay healthy? Is Deion Branch going to get drowned in the depth chart, or can he stay afloat? Will Chad Ochocinco finally "get it," or will he continue to struggle?

For as many options as the Patriots have at receiver, they have almost as many question marks.

"

@ErikFrenz Mailbag: Reasonable to expect that Chandler Jones will have an "Aldon Smith-like" impact in year one as a situational rusher?

— RumfordJohnny (@RumfordJohnny) May 11, 2012"

Great question, John. It really depends on what is his exact role.

NFL Films guru Greg Cosell alluded to the changing NFL in a podcast with Doug Farrar of Yahoo's Shutdown Corner. The bare bones of the argument is that the sub package is taking over the NFL to the point where specialists are almost more important than three-down players.

In that sense, even if Jones never develops into the full-blown Elephant that former Patriots linebacker Willie McGinest was, he could still have a big impact on the Patriots defense for years to come. What's more, the Patriots will be even more in need of a situational pass-rusher than they've been in years past (if you can believe it) with Mark Anderson gone and Andre Carter's health uncertain.

For those reasons, I think Jones could definitely have an Aldon Smith-type impact as a rookie. While the numbers aren't in his favor, his impact will be decided more by how and how often he is utilized than any past indicators.

"

@ErikFrenz The Jets brought a good (Tebow) and a questionable (Coples) influence to the team. What are the worst and best case scenarios?

— Richard Hill (@Rich__Hill) May 11, 2012"

The best-case scenario is that the Jets are winning and that Mark Sanchez is playing well enough to keep Tim Tebow behind him on the depth chart while keeping Santonio Holmes happy.

The worst case scenario is that Sanchez doesn't play well from the beginning, struggles and media strife ensue and the Jets' season is derailed before it even really gets going.

Coples isn't as much of a concern, just because his biggest problem was motivation in a season where he wasn't playing his natural position. As long as he's utilized to his strengths and being put in positions that are comfortable and preferable for him, the Jets shouldn't have to worry too much about his motor. The Jets brought in a 4-3 defensive line coach in Karl Dunbar, so perhaps they'll be using more 4-3 fronts, which is where Coples did most of his damage rushing up the middle.

Alright, guys. That's all I've got for this week.

Thanks everyone who submitted questions, and any further questions can be sent to me on Twitter at the link below.

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